The last round of prep races for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve that award 100 points to the winner are now complete, so it’s time to take a look at the cast of 3-year-old racehorses expected to compete in the first jewel of the Triple Crown May 2 at Churchill Downs.

For this early overview, let’s group the probable runners into tiers. My view of the field for the 152^nd running of the Kentucky Derby almost certainly differs from other analysts, but there does seem to be some consensus around the top contenders. Horses are listed alphabetically within tiers, except for those “On the Bubble,” who appear in order of Kentucky Derby qualifying points accrued.

1) The Fab Four

Commandment, Further Ado, Renegade, The Puma

Renegade wins Arkansas Derby (Eclipse Sportswire)

It feels like the top tier of this class of 3-year-olds has separated itself ahead of the Kentucky Derby. Renegade’s victory in the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby March 28 at Oaklawn Park, surging four lengths clear with a powerful closing quarter-mile in :24.02 and final furlong in :11.84 was a standout performance for me and his pedigree pairs class and stamina. Further Ado earned a field-best 106 Beyer Speed Figure (five points better than any other 3-year-old) in an 11-length runaway victory in the $1.25 million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and he owns a graded stakes win on main track at Churchill Downs. Commandment nipped ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby winner The Puma by a nose to win the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa March 31. Both are battle-tested strong finishers with triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures on their résumés.

2) Strong Second Tier

Class President, Emerging Market, Incredibolt, Silent Tactic, So Happy

So Happy wins Santa Anita Derby (Eclipse Sportswire)

Class President showed significant ability when edging Silent Tactic by a nose to win the $1 million Rebel Stakes March 1, but missing a planned start in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes is a red flag. Emerging Market impressed in his stakes debut in winning the $1 million Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby by a head March 21 at Fair Grounds and will try to become the first racehorse in 152 editions to win the Kentucky Derby with two or fewer starts. Incredibolt rebounded from a disastrous season debut in the Holy Bull Stakes to win the Virginia Derby Presented by New Kent County by four lengths March 14 at Colonial Downs. Southwest Stakes winner Silent Tactic has established himself as a powerful closer and enters the Kentucky Derby off back-to-back runner-up finishes in the $1 million Rebel Stakes winner March 1 and $1.5 million Arkansas Derby March 28, both at Oaklawn Park. After fading in the stretch of his first try around two turns, So Happy completed his final quarter-mile in :25.38 for a 2 ¾-length victory in the $500,000 Santa Anita Derby April 4 at Santa Anita Park to earn a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. I expect both Incredibolt and So Happy to outrun their odds in the first jewel of the Triple Crown and would be my most likely winners from this tier.

3) The Wild Cards (International and All-Weather)

Danon Bourbon, Fulleffort, Six Speed, Wonder Dean

Danon Bourbon wins Fukuryu Stakes (Masakazu Takahashi)

Fulleffort enters the Kentucky Derby off a dominant 2 ½-length victory in the $777,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park and has never competed in a race on dirt. His previous seven races came on grass or all-weather surfaces and he’ll try dirt for the first time at Churchill Downs. The top two finishers from the United Arab Emirates Derby Sponsored by Jumeirah March 28 at Meydan, Wonder Dean and Six Speed, respectively, ship in from Dubai for the Kentucky Derby. Horses coming out of the UAE Derby are 0-for-21 in the Kentucky Derby with Forever Young’s third-place finish in 2024 the best result. Six Speed should impact the race from a pace perspective as a dedicated front-runner. Danon Bourbon is unbeaten and unchallenged in three starts in Japan. It’s hard to evaluate the quality of his competition in Japan, but Danon Bourbon looks like he has star potential. He’s a standout from this group.

4) In … With a Shot (To Varying Degrees)

Albus, Golden Tempo, Ottinho, Pavlovian, Potente, Right to Party, Stark Contrast

Potente wins San Felipe (Eclipse Sportswire)

Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino winner Albus made a sustained rally April 4 at Aqueduct to punch his Derby ticket; Lecomte Stakes winner Golden Tempo was only a length behind Emerging Market when third in the Louisiana Derby March 21 at Fair Grounds; Ottinho ran a distant second to Further Ado in the April 4 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland; Pavlovian led in deep stretch of the Louisiana Derby but came up a head short of Emerging Market after winning the Sunland Park Derby in his previous start; Potente rallied gamely to win the San Felipe Stakes Presented by DK Horse March 7 but faded after changing tactics and pressing the pace in the Santa Anita Derby; Right to Party closed from 11^th of 12 to run second while never threatening winner Albus in the Wood Memorial Stakes; and Stark Contrast, a multiple stakes winner on turf, made the switch to an all-weather surface for the Jeff Ruby Steaks and ran second to Fulleffort. With a switch back to off-the-pace tactics, Potente looks like a very live longshot for Hall of Fame trainer and six-time Derby winner Bob Baffert.

5) On the Bubble (Ordered by Kentucky Derby Qualifying Points)

Iron Honor, Chief Wallabee, Chip Honcho, Intrepido, Universe, Grittiness

Chief Wallabee wins January debut (Coglianese Photos/Ryan Thompson)

Gotham Stakes winner Iron Honor needs one defection from the Kentucky Derby to get into the race after an unplaced finish in the Wood Memorial.

Unlucky Florida Derby third-place finisher Chief Wallabee is probably one of the 10 best 3-year-olds targeting the Kentucky Derby, but would need two defections to get into the starting gate for last year’s Derby-winning trainer, Hall of Famer Bill Mott.

Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes runner-up Chip Honcho, Robert B. Lewis Stakes runner-up Intrepido, Louisiana Derby fourth-place finisher Universe, and Virginia Derby runner-up Grittiness will need significant luck in the form of multiple defections to qualify for the 2026 Kentucky Derby.