Fair Grounds wraps up its winter-spring meet this weekend with the racetrack’s headline event, Saturday’s $1 million Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. The Louisiana Derby, held at 1 3/16 miles, is the final of four prep races for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve held at the New Orleans track, and offers a total of 200 qualifying points to the May 2 run for the roses distributed to the top five finishers on a 100-50-25-15-10 basis.

Five horses coming out of this race have won the Kentucky Derby, but only two have swept both races: Black Gold way back in 1924 and Grindstone in 1996. Recently, both Country House (2019) and Mandaloun (2021) exited off-the-board finishes in the Louisiana Derby and were awarded victory in the Kentucky Derby due to disqualifications. Other notable recent Louisiana Derby winners include Peace Rules (2003, third in the Kentucky Derby), Gun Runner (2016, third in the Kentucky Derby and Horse of the Year in 2017), Hot Rod Charlie (2021, second in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes), and Epicenter (2022, second in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes).

The 113^th Louisiana Derby drew a competitive field headlined by the winners of two earlier Derby prep races at Fair Grounds during the meet, Golden Tempo (Lecomte Stakes) and Chip Honcho (Gun Runner Stakes). The race will be broadcast live on FanDuel TV, with a scheduled post time of 6:42 p.m. ET.

Read on for information about each of the Louisiana Derby contenders plus some gambling insights:

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1. Pavlovian (6-1 morning-line odds)

Jockey: Edwin Maldonado

Trainer: Doug O’Neill

Owner: Reddam Racing

Career record: 9 starts – 2 wins – 3 seconds – 1 third

Career earnings: $413,450

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 87

Kentucky Derby points: 20

Pedigree: Pavel – Mandy’s Grace, by Bellamy Road

Color: Gray or roan

Running style: Stalker

Analysis: This California-bred colt jumped on the Kentucky Derby trail with a game nose win over favorite Express Kid in the 1 1/16-mile Sunland Park Derby Feb. 15. He earned 20 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby with the victory, which means nabbing second or better in the Louisiana Derby will secure his spot in the May 2 classic, and finishing third could put him on the borderline depending on how other 200-point races shake out over the next several weeks. Pavlovian is a hard-trying type who had mainly competed against fellow state-breds before the Sunland Park Derby, with little distinction. He had rough trips in three consecutive starts before the Sunland Derby win, tossing his rider in one of those races, and can’t afford any mishaps against a field that’s more formidable than the one he faced in New Mexico. His pedigree suggests that 1 3/16 miles is well within his scope.

Ryan Thompson/Coglianese Photos

2. Autobahn (8-1)

Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza Jr.

Trainer: Brad Cox

Owners: WinStar Farm, CHC Inc., and First Go Racing

Career record: 3 starts – 1 win – 0 seconds – 1 third

Career earnings: $48,000

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 80

Kentucky Derby points: 0

Pedigree: Nyquist – Take Charge Paula, by Take Charge Indy

Color: Dark bay or brown

Running style: Stalker

Analysis: This colt and Easterly both have the same owners and trainer and ship in from Gulfstream Park for a shot at the Kentucky Derby. Autobahn is more experienced than his stablemate, having made three career starts at the south Florida track. He finished fifth and third in his first two outings – the latter an 11 ¾-length loss to subsequent ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby third-place finisher Canaletto – before putting it all together in a 1 1/8-mile maiden race in which he overcame a poor start to leave five opponents in the dust and roll to a 5 ¾-length victory. Autobahn earned an 80 Equibase Speed Figure in that win, which was an improvement over his prior two starts but still far below what he’ll need to win this race. He’s bred to handle added distance as a son of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist out of the multiple stakes-winning mare Take Charge Paula. A candidate for trifecta and/or superfecta tickets.

Lou Hodges, Jr. /Hodges Photography

3. Chip Honcho (3-1)

Jockey: Luis Saez

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Owners: Leland Ackerley Racing, James Sherwood, Jode Shupe, and John Cilia

Career record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $260,475

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 98

Kentucky Derby points: 39

Pedigree: Connect – Miss My Rose, by Magician

Color: Dark bay or brown

Running style: Pacesetter/press the pace

Analysis: Chip Honcho is the slight morning-line favorite in the Louisiana Derby based on good efforts in Fair Grounds’ three prior Kentucky Derby points races. He won the Dec. 20 Gun Runner Stakes by three-quarters of a length and then ran fourth in the Jan. 17 Lecomte Stakes won by Golden Tempo, defeated by only 1 ¾ lengths. Those races were held at 1 1/16 miles, and Chip Honcho earned Equibase Speed Figures in the mid-80s both times. He was a second-tier contender in the Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes behind Paladin and Golden Tempo as he stretched out to 1 1/8 miles, but the dark bay or brown colt turned in a career-best effort from a speed-figure perspective as he jumped out to the lead under Luis Saez and just missed pulling the upset, losing by a half-length to Paladin. Chip Honcho’s pedigree suggests he’d be best racing a mile to 1 1/16 miles, but if he can replicate or improve on his Risen Star effort and the 98 Equibase Speed Figure, he should be among the main contenders in the stretch run Saturday. Luis Saez rode him for the first time in the Risen Star and stays aboard for five-time Louisiana Derby winner Steve Asmussen. Even if he finishes third, those 25 points very likely would be enough to send Chip Honcho to the Kentucky Derby.

New To Horse Racing? Let Us Explain...

Morning line: In horse racing, each racetrack hires an oddsmaker to give estimates about what kind of support a horse will receive from bettors in the pari-mutuel pool, which collects wagers from everyone gambling on a particular race. These estimates are called morning-line odds and are usually announced a day or two before the race is run. The morning-line odds are a starting point when a race becomes open for betting and will change as bettors begin to make their wagers. The final odds can be very different from the morning line odds by the time the race starts.

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4. Universe (12-1)

Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Owners: 4 G Racing, Gregg Day, Steven Crain, and Magdalena Racing

Career record: 6 starts – 1 win – 2 seconds – 1 third

Career earnings: $259,650

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 91

Kentucky Derby points: 23

Pedigree: Global Campaign – Equalityforall, by Quality Road

Color: Bay

Running style: Closer

Analysis: The Louisiana Derby represents Universe’s sixth straight start in a Kentucky Derby qualifying points race, with his best finishes among the prior five runner-up efforts in the Street Sense Stakes and the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, both held last fall at Churchill Downs and at 1 1/16 miles. In his two prep races this year, he has not been a factor at all, finishing seventh of eight in the 1 1/16-mile Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park and then fourth, defeated 7 ¾ by lengths by Paladin in the Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes going a mile and an eighth on this track. The colt co-owned and trained by 2024 Kentucky Derby-winning conditioner Ken McPeek has not developed into a top-tier Kentucky Derby contender and rallying late and securing a minor award would appear to be his ceiling in the Louisiana Derby. However, if Universe were to finish third, he’d earn 25 Derby points and boost his total to 48, which would place him within reach of qualifying for the Derby based on leaderboards in recent years. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., who also won the 2024 Derby aboard McPeek’s Mystic Dan, gets back aboard Universe after riding him to his second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.

Lou Hodges, Jr. /Hodges Photography

5. Golden Tempo (7-2)

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Trainer: Cherie DeVaux

Owners: Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stable

Career record: 3 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third

Career earnings: $233,000

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 90

Kentucky Derby points: 35

Pedigree: Curlin – Carrumba, by Bernardini

Color: Bay

Running style: Closer

Analysis: Golden Tempo seeks an improved effort in the Louisiana Derby after running late to nab third in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star Stakes back in mid-February on this track. The Curlin colt entered the Risen Star off of a come-from-behind win in the 1 1/16-mile Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds Jan. 17, and he tried to summon another powerful rally in the Risen Star but had way too much ground to make up on pacesetter Chip Honcho, while winner Paladin made his closing move from a stalking position to prevail. Despite the six-length defeat, Golden Tempo did nudge his Equibase Speed Figure up to a 90, and another move forward puts him in contention to win the Louisiana Derby. The problem is, as a closer he’s dependent on a fast early pace. Aside from Chip Honcho and possibly Easterly, the Louisiana Derby field is bereft of speed horses. Look for regular jockey Jose Ortiz to keep Golden Tempo more in touch with the early leaders Saturday while still reserving enough energy for a late charge. Golden Tempo will add blinkers for the Louisiana Derby, which ideally will help him focus more and not get too far behind. This colt has an excellent pedigree for handling the Louisiana Derby’s 1 3/16-mile distance, and even longer distances in races to come.

New to racing? Let us explain…

Blinkers are cups that are placed on the outside of each eye on a horse prior to a race. They can be cut to different lengths and are used to restrict the horse’s field of vision, which ideally will enable him/her to perform better through improved focus on what is in front of him rather than what is behind.

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6. Spirit of Royal (20-1)

Jockey: Francisco Arrieta

Trainer: Dallas Stewart

Owner: Gervais Racing

Career record: 7 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $121,164

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 92

Kentucky Derby points: 0

Pedigree: Global Campaign – Spirit Lets Hearit, by Girolamo

Color: Bay

Running style: Closer

Analysis: This longshot makes his Fair Grounds debut in a very tough spot after seven prior starts, the first four in Kentucky last year and then three more recent starts at Oaklawn Park. Spirit of Royal finished second in his debut sprinting last summer but then was no better than fourth in his next four starts (losing his jockey in one) before showing improvement when stretching out to two turns for the first time in a one-mile maiden race Jan. 2 at Oaklawn. He overcame some stretch bumping to pull clear and win by 1 ½ lengths, which set him up for his first Derby prep try in the Feb. 6 Southwest Stakes at the Arkansas track. Spirit of Royal was a 62.40-1 longshot in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest and never rallied from his position near the back of the field, finishing ninth of 12 runners and 6 ¾ lengths behind winner Silent Tactic. He did earn a career-best 92 Equibase Speed Figure in the Southwest and will need to improve that by about 10 points to have a chance at finishing in the top four Saturday.

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7. Blacksmith (6-1)

 Jockey: Florent Geroux

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Owner: Wathnan Racing

Career record: 5 starts – 1 win – 2 seconds – 1 third

Career earnings: $103,600

Top Equibase Speed Figure:  100

Kentucky Derby points: 5

Pedigree: Liam’s Map – Sweet Achiever, by Curlin

Color: Bay

Running style: Press the pace/stalker

Analysis: Blacksmith adds a dose of intrigue to the Louisiana Derby as he ships in from Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s base in Southern California for a try at earning some more Kentucky Derby points. The well-bred Liam’s Map colt secured five of them last December by running second to stablemate Litmus Test in the 1 1/16-mile Los Alamitos Futurity while still a maiden (a horse seeking his/her first win). After the Los Al Futurity, which came in his third career start, Blacksmith started in two maiden races to kick off 2026. He finished third in the first one, held at one mile around two turns and at Santa Anita Park, one length behind Robusta and a half-length behind highly regarded stablemate Cherokee Nation. That turned out to be a key race, as Robusta trained on to finish second in the recent San Felipe Stakes Presented by DK Horse on the Kentucky Derby trail, while Cherokee Nation ran fifth in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, impressively won a maiden race, and is now being pointed to the Santa Anita Derby. Blacksmith came out of that third-place effort to post his own impressive maiden win, taking a one-mile race at Santa Anita by 3 ¾ lengths and earning a 100 Equibase Speed Figure. Now he’ll separate from Cherokee Nation and other Baffert-trained Santa Anita Derby possible starters and give the Hall of Fame trainer his first Louisiana Derby entrant since Code West finished sixth in 2013. Florent Geroux, who was aboard Blacksmith for his maiden win and has been riding successfully for Baffert since moving his tack to California, travels back to his former winter base at Fair Grounds to ride. Look for Geroux to be aggressive and keep Blacksmith in touch with probable pacesetter Chip Honcho early in the race.

Lauren King/Coglianese Photo

8. Easterly (6-1)

Jockey: Edgard Zayas

Trainer: Brad Cox

Owners: WinStar Farm, CHC Inc., and First Go Racing

Career record: 2 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $49,600

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 85

Kentucky Derby points: 0

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Dakota Wind, by Tiznow

Color: Dark bay or brown

Running style: Press the pace

Analysis: The second Brad Cox-trained entrant in the Louisiana Derby is, like Autobahn, inexperienced but full of potential. Easterly pressed the early pace in his debut race, a one-turn dirt mile at Gulfstream Park in late December, and tired late to finish second behind Class President, a colt who would train on to win the Rebel Stakes March 1 at Oaklawn Park and join the Kentucky Derby leaderboard. Easterly then graduated in his second start and first around two turns, again pressing the pace in a 1 1/16-mile Gulfstream race before drawing clear to win by a convincing 2 ¾ lengths. It was an impressive effort in only his second career race, good for an 85 Equibase Speed Figure, and if this colt can make a similar jump in his third outing he’ll be a threat to hit the board in the Louisiana Derby and possibly post an upset. Like several other contenders, this Uncle Mo colt is bred to run his best in route races, and it’s a sign of his connections’ confidence that Gulfstream-based jockey Edgard Zayas travels to New Orleans for the mount after riding Easterly in his first two starts. Give Easterly the slight edge over Autobahn to potentially give Brad Cox his third career Louisiana Derby victory.

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9. Emerging Market (6-1)

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Trainer: Chad Brown

Owner: Klaravich Stables

Career record: 1 start – 1 win – 0 seconds – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $18,880

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 79

Kentucky Derby points: 0

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Wild Empress, by Empire Maker

Color: Chestnut

Running style: Stalker

Analysis: Emerging Market enters the Louisiana Derby racing for accomplished connections but with only a single career start on his résumé. He turned heads on the Feb. 7 card at Tampa Bay Downs by outfinishing favored Powershift by three-quarters of a length in a one-mile and 40-yard maiden race held around two turns. Instead of targeting the ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby, trainer Chad Brown pointed the colt to the Louisiana Derby and directed Emerging Market’s stablemate, Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes winner Paladin, to the April 4 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland for his final Kentucky Derby prep. Buzz around Emerging Market has subsided somewhat after Powershift ran a nonthreatening sixth in the Tampa Bay Derby, but this colt still displayed plenty of talent in his debut and has every right to improve in his second start, albeit against much tougher competition. Flavien Prat, who rode Emerging Market in his win, travels to Fair Grounds for the mount, and it will be interesting to see how he positions his mount within the field after breaking from the outside post. If he can angle Emerging Market in closer to the rail and save some ground for the first mile or so, this son of Horse of the Year (and 2016 Louisiana Derby winner) Gun Runner has the pedigree to be a factor in the stretch.