Colonial Downs made a major change in its annual calendar and stakes schedule this year by moving the Virginia Derby. Previously a graded stakes race held in September for 3-year-olds on turf, the 1 1/8-mile race was switched to dirt and rescheduled to March as the anchor of a brief boutique meet.

The Virginia Derby is now a qualifying points race for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, and in its inaugural dirt running provided a final high point in legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas’ career when American Promise won, just over three months before Lukas’ death at age 89.

As for Colonial’s September turf event, it’s been renamed the Old Dominion Derby and will be held Saturday with an attractive half-million dollar purse. This race has been won by several top-class turf runners of the 21^st century, including current star Deterministic who scored last fall as a 3-year-old and just wrapped up his 2025 summer season with two Grade 1 grass wins at Saratoga. 

1. Native Runner (8-1 morning-line odds): Finished last of eight in August as the post-time favorite in the 1 1/8-mile KY Downs Preview Nashville Derby at Ellis Park after a slow start. Prior to that, he was second by a half-length in a Churchill Downs stakes and first in an allowance race on the same course, both routing on turf. Should be rallying late and a return to his Churchill form gives him a small chance at the upset.

JOCKEY: Jorge Ruiz; TRAINER: Ken McPeek

2. Mesero (8-1): Also exits the KY Downs Preview Nashville Derby, where he was seventh and three lengths ahead of Native Runner but six lengths behind the winner. Closed from 11^th of 12 runners to post his only turf win last spring at Keeneland and will need a pace meltdown to have a shot at hitting the board, which it’s unlikely he’ll get.

JOCKEY: Mychel Sanchez; TRAINER: Dale Romans

3. Just a Fair Shake (15-1): Moves from dirt to turf after eight career starts and he’s lost ground late in four consecutive races coming into Saturday’s test. Hard to endorse.

JOCKEY: Xavier Perez; TRAINER: Daniel McKenzie

4. Soleil Volant (6-1): Had a very rough start Aug. 9 in a Colonial Downs turf allowance race and never threatened when finishing fifth of nine runners. Prior to that, he finished third, second, and third in three grass starts, each at different tracks. A minor award is possible with a clean trip.

JOCKEY: Kendrick Carmouche; TRAINER: Graham Motion

5. Iron Hand (5-1): After posting four consecutive wins on the all-weather track at Gulfstream Park, made his turf debut and briefly led in early stretch before yielding late and finishing third in an Aug. 2 one-mile stakes at the south Florida track. Could very well set the pace Saturday with minimal pressure, but even so, he’s never run a mile and an eighth before.

JOCKEY: Edwin Gonzalez; TRAINER: Jose D’Angelo

World Beater (Chelsea Durand/NYRA)

6. World Beater (9-5): Is a deserved favorite after rallying for an upset win in the 1 3/16-mile, Grade 1 Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes in early August. Ran well when second in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes the start prior and will be taking a step down the class ladder Saturday. Has two wins and a second at this distance and will be very tough to topple.

JOCKEY: Jaime Torres; TRAINER: Riley Mott

7. Thirteen Colonies (10-1): His three starts on turf this year have revealed tantalizing potential – one win, one second, and one third. The runner-up finish came last out in a Saratoga allowance in which he led in early stretch and finished second to Simulate, who then finished second in the Secretariat Stakes at Colonial. Rates a small upset chance at what could be appealing post-time odds.

JOCKEY: Axel Concepcion; TRAINER: Philip Antonacci

8. Lured Away (10-1): Makes his turf debut in his 13^th start and enters off of two races on Colonial’s dirt track – a win in a 1 1/8-mile allowance and then a third in a one-mile stakes. Might not get the fast-pace setup he’ll need to set up his closing rally and is not bred for turf, either.

JOCKEY: Manny Esquivel; TRAINER: Ken McPeek

9. Outrunner (6-1): Seems to be on the verge of a breakout race after finishing a rallying second in two straight turf routes – a stakes at Monmouth Park (Soleil Volant was third) and then an allowance race at Colonial. Another entrant with an upset chance if World Beater fails to fire.

JOCKEY: Paco Lopez; TRAINER: Jorge Duarte Jr.

THE PICK: World Beater

LIVE LONGSHOT: Thirteen Colonies

SUPERFECTA: 6-7-9-1