BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his Derby Dozen with a look at his leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 4.

Last weekend, Domestic Product prevailed in a thrilling edition of the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs to earn 50 qualifying points for the 150^th Kentucky Derby. The upcoming weekend is quiet, with no points preps scheduled, but activity picks back up on March 23 and continues steadily through mid-April before the final 20-24 contenders make plans for a trip to Louisville.

Check out America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

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1. Dornoch 

Not since 1995, when Thunder Gulch won the Kentucky Derby, has a Remsen Stakes participant scored at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. (That D. Wayne Lukas trainee became the sixth Remsen horse to take the Derby.) Perhaps the 2023 Remsen Stakes runners can end that losing streak this year. In addition to this colt, who gamely won last fall’s Remsen over Sierra Leone before beating a depleted field in the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes, eventual Tampa Bay Derby winner Domestic Product was seventh in the Remsen. Sierra Leone went on to win the Feb. 17 Risen Star Stakes and still others in the Remsen lineup performed well in subsequent starts, such as Drum Roll Please, next-out victor in the Jan. 6 Jerome Stakes.

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2. Fierceness

As disappointing as his return was when third in the Feb. 3 Holy Bull Stakes with a subpar trip, he continues to impress in his morning training. Last year’s champion 2-year-old male dusted a very promising colt, the 2-for-2 Tuscan Sky, in a March 8 breeze. Clocked in 1:00.99 for five furlongs, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt left his hard-ridden foe several lengths behind in a breeze that continued past the wire at Palm Meadows Training Center. If Fierceness runs to that work in the March 30 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, a return to his FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA-winning form seems in order.

Dana Wimpfheimer photo

3. Sierra Leone

Trainer Chad Brown has two horses safely qualified for the May 4 Derby in this colt and Domestic Product, with 55 and 60 qualifying points, respectively. Domestic Product fell just short of cracking the Derby Dozen this week, kept out due to a slow final time in the Tampa Bay Derby and a bunched finish against a relatively unaccomplished field. Sierra Leone defeated a far better group when he won the Risen Star Stakes, leaving horses such as Track Phantom, Catching Freedom, Resilience, and Honor Marie behind him. Encouraged to already see two half-mile breezes at Payson Park this month as he preps for the April 6 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.

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4. Forever Young

Japan’s top 3-year-old improved to 4-for-4 in taking the one-mile Saudi Derby at King Abdulaziz Racecourse, though he needed every inch of its never-ending stretch to run down American Book’em Danno. The surface at the track was quicker than usual this year, but his time, in particular, was much faster than prior runnings. The Saudi race was not part of the Road to the Kentucky Derby series, so Forever Young’s Kentucky Derby chances might hinge on finishing first or second when he runs next in the March 30 United Arab Emirates Derby at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai. He will be favored to win in international pari-mutuel wagering pools.

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5. Timberlake

Eager to see what this colt does in his final Derby prep, owing to him defeating what seemed like a fairly modest group in the Feb. 24 Rebel Stakes. That was a rare Rebel that did not have an invader to Oaklawn Park from the Southern California-based stable of trainer Bob Baffert. The quality of competition aside, there was plenty to like about how he settled and finished, though he was still a little green through the stretch, being slow to switch leads and then drifting out under left-handed pressure. Take note of a solid workout in :48.40 March 8 at Fair Grounds for trainer Brad Cox.

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6. Track Phantom

Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen has eased back on the colt’s morning breezes leading toward the March 23 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, a perfectly understandable decision given how active this colt has been through the winter in New Orleans. After racing in Kentucky last fall, he won the Dec. 23 Gun Runner Stakes and Jan. 20 Lecomte Stakes before his runner-up finish to Sierra Leone in the Risen Star. With the latter headed to the Blue Grass, Track Phantom could be favored in the Louisiana Derby, the longest domestic prep on the Road to the Kentucky Derby held at the Preakness Stakes distance of 1 3/16 miles.

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7. Catching Freedom

The Smarty Jones Stakes winner was a respectable third in the Risen Star. He finished well but was outkicked by Sierra Leone and unable to catch frontrunning Track Phantom, who settled for second. He seems to be making steady improvement, and with the right setup – catching more pace than he did in the Risen Star – he could produce in one of these final Derby preps. His most recent work March 9 at Fair Grounds in 1:00.80 was one of his quicker moves of the year.

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8. Mystik Dan

Given how quickly he ran in winning the Feb. 3 Southwest Stakes, in which he posted a 110 Equibase Speed Figure, a nearly two-month break before the March 30 Arkansas Derby is deserving. Regression is still possible after he raced atop the fence in the Southwest over a muddy track he relished. The Arkansas Derby should be an intriguing race filled with quality, with this colt clearly adding to it. One would presume Mystik Dan will be facing multiple starters from the talent-laden stables of trainers Brad Cox and Bob Baffert.

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9. Deterministic 

This colt was out of action since winning on debut at Saratoga Race Course in the summer, and trainer Christophe Clement wanted to prep him in an allowance race this winter in Florida but could not find a suitable spot. So he returned March 2 at Aqueduct in the one-mile Gotham Stakes, and he produced, finishing best down the lane to beat Just a Touch and El Grande O. A start in one of the final rounds of Derby preps is on deck. Inexperience leaves him in the bottom half of the Dozen. Even if he runs well in his next race and proceeds on to Louisville, he will have just a single two-turn start before racing 1 ¼ miles in the Derby.

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10. Conquest Warrior 

After comfortably winning in an allowance optional claiming race March 1 at Gulfstream Park, he resumed working with an easy half-mile breeze in :50 at Payson Park March 11, a positive indication that exited his race in good shape. Based on historical trends, this colt will likely need a 1-2 finish in his final Derby prep to quality for the Derby. Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey is fairly selective with what he brings to Churchill Downs for the Derby, running just eight horses in the classic and only three since Easy Goer and Awe Inspiring ran 2-3 in 1989. McGaughey won the Derby in 2013 with Orb and was second with his most recent starter Code of Honor in 2019.

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11. Hades

A series of promising workouts since this 3-year-old won the Holy Bull, and the results from this past weekend’s Tampa Bay Derby are encouraging signals before a second meeting with Fierceness in the Florida Derby. Domestic Product, who split the two of them in the Holy Bull, managed to overcome a slow pace in the March 11 Tampa Bay Derby to nip No More Time by a nose. Hades beat the two of them in the Holy Bull, albeit with the best trip of the three, setting soft splits from his inside post after outbreaking a slow-starting and rushed-up Fierceness.

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12. Tuscan Sky

Without any Kentucky Derby qualifying points, his Derby status depends on him securing those is an upcoming prep – with the Louisiana Derby looking like his next stop. He’s 2-for-2, racing on wet tracks on each occasion, and comes off a very fast allowance optional claiming win at Fair Grounds. Less enthusiastically, and the reason for his demotion a few spots this week, he was soundly outworked by Fierceness this past Friday at Palm Beach Downs. Still, the fact that trainer Todd Pletcher put him with the 2-year-old champ of last year indicates the high opinion he has of Tuscan Sky.

Note: With Churchill Downs Inc.’s continued ban of Bob Baffert from racing at its tracks and of his horses from earning Kentucky Derby qualifying points, none of his top 3-year-olds, including the recently-sidelined Nysos, Muth, and Imagination, are in the Derby Dozen. Look for Baffert in the Triple Crown starting with the May 18 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course.