The Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve continues at Colonial Downs on Saturday with the $500,000 Virginia Derby, offering a total of 105 qualifying points on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale to the top five finishers. Historically run in September over the turf until 2024, the Virginia Derby is now contested at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt and serves as a major prep for the first Saturday in May. This year’s edition drew a field of 10 colts and geldings shipping in from coast to coast.

Here’s a look at the field from the inside (rail) post position out:

Morning-line 5-2 favorite Buetane runs for trainer Bob Baffert with Flavien Prat back in the irons for the first time since the colt’s runner-up finish to Ted Noffey in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga in September. The Tiz the Law colt finished third in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park last time out and will be making his fifth consecutive start at a different track. Grittiness, the first of two Todd Pletcher-trained entrants, is still trying to find the winner’s circle for the first time in his career and finished runner-up in the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct last time out. Pletcher’s second entry, Epic Desire, scored his first win by 2 ½ lengths at Tampa Bay Downs on Jan. 9 before finishing a distant fifth in his most recent start in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Work ships in from Santa Anita Park after earning his first career win in a turf sprint last time out and will switch back to the dirt following three consecutive starts over turf for trainer Doug O’Neill. High Camp earned a 92 Equibase Speed Figure for his one-length maiden win last time out and will be making his route debut for trainer Will Walden, with Hall of Famer John Velazquez staying aboard. Lockstocknpharoah is 2-for-2 in his career, with a combined winning margin of 10 ¼ lengths while racing on the all-weather track at Turfway Park. The American Pharoah colt trained by Tom Drury Jr. earned a career-best and highest Equibase figure in the field with a 99 last time out for his 8 ¼ length romp at the allowance optional claiming level. Street Sense Stakes winner Incredibolt looks to return to winning form after a distant last-place finish in his most recent start, the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 31. Regular jockey Jaime Torres remains in the saddle for trainer Riley Mott. Confessional won his career debut at Keeneland in October before posting a second-place finish to subsequent Holy Bull winner Nearly to start his 3-year-old campaign. The Essential Quality colt trained by Brad Cox finished a distant seventh last time out in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and will have Irad Ortiz Jr. back aboard after a one-race absence. Ocelli, the second maiden in the field, also ran in the Sam F. Davis Stakes last time out and finished sixth of nine starters for trainer Whit Beckman. Clocker Special drew the far outside post position for trainer Rodolphe Brisset. The Not This Time colt earned his maiden win at Ellis Park in July and finished second by just a neck at the allowance optional claiming level Feb. 8 at Oaklawn Park in his first start after a nearly seven-month layoff.

 Analysis and Main Contenders:

High Camp (Lauren King/Coglianese Photo)

High Camp earned second in his career debut in a six-furlong dirt sprint at Gulfstream Park but finished strong and kept on well. In his second start, he stretched out a furlong and swung six-wide on the final turn to post a determined one length victory, mowing down his rivals late while earning a 92 Equibase Speed Figure. His strong finish in both career starts and his 103 late pace rating suggests this promising colt can handle the route distance, and he has the pedigree to stretch out as well. Progeny of his sire, Instagrand, win at a solid 20% from 243 starts over the last three years in dirt routes, and trainer Will Walden is also successful with horses going from sprints to routes on the dirt, winning at 23% and finishing 65% in the top three positions over the last three years from 31 starts. High Camp has been training well since the maiden win on Feb. 7, posting a bullet five-furlong drill in 1:00.45 in his most recent work March 7. Another notable positive is John Velazquez making the trip to Colonial Downs to stay aboard. Velazquez and Walden win at 29% in stakes races together all-time. High Camp has a good opportunity to take a significant step forward on Saturday and pass the two-turn test in his stakes debut.

Buetane is the class of the field and has made three consecutive starts at the graded stakes level. The Tiz the Law colt won his career debut Aug. 3 at Del Mar by 3 ½ lengths in a six-furlong dirt sprint. About a month later, he shipped to Saratoga and stretched out to seven furlongs in the Hopeful Stakes and finished runner-up to Ted Noffey, who went on to win the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity and the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA in his next two starts. Buetane took a three-month layoff after the Hopeful and resurfaced on Jan. 10, finishing second in the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park. Then, Buetane made his two-turn route debut in the Southwest Stakes and was outkicked for second to end up third behind Silent Tactic and Soldier N Diplomat. While he has yet to find the winner’s circle since his maiden win in August, Buetane has been on an upward speed pattern, improving from an 87 Equibase figure in the Hopeful to a 96 figure in the San Vicente, and then improving again to a 97 figure in the Southwest. Flavien Prat will be back aboard for the first time since the Hopeful, and Prat and Bob Baffert have found tremendous success together. Over the last three years, Baffert and Prat win at 38% and finish in the top three at a 68% rate in stakes races, from 53 starts. Buetane should run well and at least finish in the top three if he can’t find the winner’s circle on Saturday.

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Lockstocknpharoah offers solid value at 5-1 morning-line odds considering he is undefeated from two starts with an 8 ½ length romp on his résumé. The American Pharoah colt earned a career-best 99 Equibase for that impressive effort last time out, which is the highest speed figure earned by any horse in this field. Apart from ranking first by average speed in the field with a 93, Lockstocknpharoah is also first by late pace with a 105.5 rating. Over the past year, horses in dirt route non-graded stakes races with the highest late-pace rating in the race are winning at 33% from 415 starts. A good sign is that jockey Edgar Morales leaves Turfway Park to ride Lockstocknpharoah as his only mount of the day at Colonial. This gelding will face his toughest test while switching from the all-weather to dirt, but Lockstocknpharoah is a proven route winner with a lot of speed and the ability to finish strong.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures in similar races, is Grittiness (82), Epic Desire (85), Work (92), Incredibolt (94), Confessional (97), Ocelli (85) and Clocker Special (79).

Win Contenders in Preference Order:

High Camp

Buetane

Lockstocknpharoah