BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his Derby Dozen with a look at his leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 4.

Last weekend, Sierra Leone rallied to win the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds to earn 50 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby and virtually assure himself a spot in the starting gate, while at Sunland Park, Stronghold won the Sunland Park Derby and banked 20 points. On Feb. 24, the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park offers the same total of 105 points to the top five finishers as the Risen Star, and it marks the scheduled return of Timberlake after a 3 ½-month absence.

Check out America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

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1. Dornoch 

Given a short break after winning the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct, he has worked progressively faster in Florida this winter, capped by a half-mile move in :48.80 at Palm Meadows Training Center Feb. 16. That should leave this full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage with one more breeze before his scheduled return in the March 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The form from the Remsen was flattered Feb. 17 when runner-up Sierra Leone took a high-class renewal of the Risen Star Stakes.

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2. Fierceness

The betting public has cooled on the 2-year-old champion male of 2023, letting the onetime Derby favorite drift to 16-1 odds as the fifth individual choice in Churchill Downs’ most recent Kentucky Derby Future Wager that closed over the weekend. Making his 3-year-old debut in the Feb. 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park, he underwhelmed by finishing third after a slow start and a wide trip. He has run brilliantly twice, including when romping in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA, but disappointingly on just as many occasions. He has the potential to run quickly, as reflected by his 110 Equibase Speed Figure in the Juvenile last fall. The March 30 Florida Derby is next.

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3. Sierra Leone

Late-running horses are typically pace-dependent, but this $2.3 million yearling buy overcame a lack of pace in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star Feb. 17, defeating a field that seemed the best of any Derby prep this year. Very few horses would have proven capable of successfully rallying from ninth behind fractions of :24.32 and :49.67, particularly with a horse as talented as Track Phantom carving out the splits. But this colt got it done, showing improved focus in his first start with blinkers and surging late for a half-length victory, admittedly in a relatively slow time of 1:52.13 over sloppy going. On the strength of that victory, he went off as the individual favorite in this past week’s Kentucky Derby Future Wager at 6-1 odds. The April 6 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland will be his final Derby prep.

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4. Locked 

After a setback left him off the work tab for a few weeks, he resumed breezing Feb. 16 at Palm Beach Downs for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, recording a :49.68 half-mile breeze that left his connections encouraged. Pletcher said that the Fountain of Youth is his intended next race. Another workout is planned next week, and his connections could easily pivot to a race such as the March 9 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby if he needs more time. In light of his missed training, he might return at something short of peak fitness, with his second start of the year perhaps providing the best barometer of his Derby prospects.

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5. Track Phantom

Like Sierra Leone, he has a co-high 55 qualifying points toward the May 4 run for the roses, though he is in second place on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard due to having lower non-restricted stakes earnings. Though the Gun Runner Stakes and Lecomte Stakes winner ran well to be a close second in the Risen Star, the makeup of that race seemed to favor him, and he could not fend off Sierra Leone. With an easy pace and with that rival coming off a layoff and shipping to his home track, that seemed his opportunity to beat him. The March 23 Louisiana Derby is the upcoming target for this speedster.

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6. Forever Young

He has garnered attention by capturing three of his starts in Japan, though assessing the quality of those wins against unknown competition is difficult. We should get more of an idea Feb. 24 when the colt races in the $1.5 million Saudi Derby. A couple of talented one-turn American horses are in the anticipated lineup in Book’em Danno and Bentornato, though with both having distance limitations, neither of them is pointed to the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby. If Forever Young can beat them and others over a mile, he will solidify his status within the top half of the Derby Dozen.

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7. Timberlake

Winner of last year’s Champagne Stakes in the slop and unraced since a fourth-place finish in the Nov. 3 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita Park, he’ll get his 3-year-old season started Feb. 24 when he returns in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The 1 1/16-mile Rebel will go a long way toward determining whether he is a threat for this year’s Derby or more of a middle-distance, one-turn type. Without any West Coast invaders for Saturday’s Rebel, the race does not appear to have quite the quality of perhaps the last few years, leaving Timberlake as the headline act.

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8. Catching Freedom

Moving into graded company after winning the Jan. 1 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn, he ran competitively in the Risen Star, closing from sixth to grab third behind Sierra Leone and Track Phantom. Bidding between rivals down the lane, he was reluctant to switch leads but fought bravely to grab the show from the tiring Resilience after being placed in tight quarters late in the race. He does not appear to have the sheer brilliance of others in the Dozen, but he is honest and seemingly without distance limitations.

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9. Mystik Dan

His eight-length win in the Feb. 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn was one of the best performances by a 3-year-old this year and far better than his prior two routes, though with it coming over an off track, one does have to wonder if he handled the slick conditions better than his rivals. He was also glued to the fence for much of the race under a ground-saving ride from Brian Hernandez Jr. That was not this colt’s only fast race. He blazed 5 ½ furlongs in 1:03.27 when breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs Nov. 12.

Adam Coglianese/NYRA

10. Tuscan Sky

After a debut sprint win at Aqueduct Jan. 13, he improved to 2-for-2 in capturing a first-level allowance optional claiming race over a route at Fair Grounds on Risen Star Day, defeating the dual stakes-placed Nash, a prior member of the Derby Dozen. Nash had everything his own way up front through the first turn of the 1 1/16-mile race before this colt began to turn up the pressure in what amounted to a match race. Head and head on the second turn and in early stretch, Tuscan Sky powered away late to defeat Nash by two lengths. A graded-stakes race looks on deck.

Bob Coglianese/Gulfstream Park

11. Hades

The way the Holy Bull unfolded was to his benefit – he set easy fractions and Fierceness was off slowly and played catchup – but horses with tactical speed make some of their own luck. (Track Phantom is another example.) This gelding deserves credit for defeating Fierceness and also a useful Holy Bull runner-up in Domestic Product. Combine the Holy Bull with his two other victories in as many starts, including an eight-length allowance victory, and he ranks as one of Florida’s best.

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12. Honor Marie 

A non-threatening fifth in the Risen Star, passing only tired horses, he clings to the final spot in the Derby Dozen rankings due to what he accomplished last fall in taking the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. Dawdling fractions in the Risen Star did not suit his closing strength, and he ran as if he needed the return start. His two defeats in four starts have come on sloppy tracks, though he was a respectable second in the slop last fall at Churchill when beaten by stakes winner Otto the Conqueror.

* Note: With Churchill Downs Inc.’s continued ban of Bob Baffert from racing at its tracks and his horses from earning Kentucky Derby qualifying points, none of his top 3-year-olds, led by Nysos and Muth, are in the Derby Dozen. Nysos would be top-ranked if eligible.