2026 Breeders’ Cup Classic Analysis: Why Sovereignty is the Top Pick
2026 Breeders' Cup Turf at a Glance
Racing
The Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf is a key race in determining the Eclipse Award for champion older turf male each year and it’s often one of the best betting races on the Championship Saturday card. The Grade 1 Turf has been won by some of the best international turf horses of the modern era since its inaugural running as part of the first Breeders’ Cup at Hollywood Park in 1984.
This year’s 43rd Longines Turf at Keeneland drew a fascinating field featuring some of Europe’s best long-distance grass horses and a handful of North America-based contenders that merit respect. The Turf will be televised nationally on NBC, streamed on Peacock, and also shown live on the FanDuel TV channel.
1. Ethical Diamond (10-1 morning-line odds): Last year’s upset Breeders’ Cup Turf winner is rounding back into form with a rallying stakes win in August at Leopardstown in Ireland and then a second-place finish to Tiffany in the Grade 2 AGS Kentucky Turf Cup Invitational Stakes at Kentucky Downs in September, both races held at 1 ½ miles. Should save ground and tip out in early stretch for a closing charge, and can definitely get a piece of this.
JOCKEY: Dylan McMonagle; TRAINER: Willie Mullins

2. Benvenuto Cellini (6-1): Started his 3-year-old season off with two group stakes wins in Europe, including the Group 1 Irish Derby, and since has lost three stakes in a row. He had a rough trip in one of those races, though, and his recent ninth-place effort in the Group 1 Qatar Prix l’Arc de Triomphe held at 1 ½ miles wasn’t that bad as he was only 4 ¼ lengths behind superstar Daryz. Elite pedigree and this jockey-trainer combo is arguably the most successful in Breeders’ Cup Turf history.
JOCKEY: Ryan Moore; TRAINER: Aidan O’Brien
3. Minaret Station (15-1): Seems to be coming into his own this year at age 4 and enters off of his best career race, a half-length win over Far Bridge in the Grade 1, 1 ½-mile Joe Hirsch Classic Stakes at Belmont Park (El Cordobes was third). Finished second by three-quarters of a length to Survie in the Grade 1 Christophe Clement Turf Stakes one start prior, also at a mile and a half. He’s been very consistent throughout his career and can be counted on to make a late rally. A threat to hit the board at good odds, but can he topple the best Euros?
JOCKEY: Jose Ortiz; TRAINER: Will Walden
4. Far Bridge (20-1): Has earned over $2.6 million in his career and doesn’t appear to have lost much punch at age 6, although he’s only made two starts this year – a stakes win at Gulfstream Park back in March and then a narrow runner-up finish to Minaret Station in the Joe Hirsch Classic Stakes Oct. 1, both at 1 ½ miles. Finished ninth in his prior Breeders’ Cup Turf appearance in 2024 at Del Mar. He’s been successful at this distance through the years, and a career-best effort could get him into the top three.
JOCKEY: John Velazquez; TRAINER: Miguel Clement

5. El Cordobes (15-1): Debuted in the U.S. in summer 2025 after a good start to his career in Europe and promptly won a Grade 1 at 1 ½ miles at Saratoga. Since then, he’s settled for minor awards in four starts including third in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf. Had to check late in the Joe Hirsch Classic Stakes last out and finished third behind Minaret Station and Far Bridge. He seems to find trouble often in his U.S. starts, and perhaps reuniting with William Buick, who rode him in eight of 10 races overseas but none here, will help.
JOCKEY: William Buick; TRAINER: Charles Appleby
6. Burnham Square (8-1): He’s been a revelation since switching from dirt (where he was a graded stakes winner) to turf a little over a year ago, racking up four stakes wins including the 1 ¼-mile Grade 1 Arlington Million back in August. He’s 2-for-3 at a mile and a half, but was no threat in his lead-in race, finishing ninth by 9 ¾ lengths to Tiffany in the AGS Kentucky Turf Cup Invitational Stakes Sept. 5. A fan favorite and easy horse to root for faces a very tough challenge, as his turf wins have come against horses far less accomplished than this field.
JOCKEY: Brian Hernandez Jr.; TRAINER: Ian Wilkes
7. Hotazhell (15-1): Intriguing Euro shipper comes in off of a win in the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown in Ireland Sept. 12, where he was a 50-1 longshot. Won a Group 1 in Germany by a nose the start before that where he led nearly the entire way; both of these recent wins came at 1 ¼ miles. In his only U.S. start back in August 25, was a late-running fourth in a 1 3/16-mile Grade 2 stakes at Saratoga. Is in great form this year at age 4 but maintaining that level at 1 ½ miles is a question as he’s only raced that far once (10th in the 2025 Arc de Triomphe).
JOCKEY: Shane Foley; TRAINER: Jessica Harrington
8. Test Score (SCRATCHED)
9. Johanna Walsh (12-1): Three-year-old filly won the Irish Oaks held at 1 ½ miles impressively back in July and in her subsequent start was sixth of nine in a Group 1 in England facing older females at the same distance. Would be a surprise to see her winning against this field, and Dylan McMongagle, aboard for all six of her career starts, will ride Ethical Diamond.
JOCKEY: Mikael Barzalona; TRAINER: Joseph O’Brien
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10. Tiffany (10-1): Consistent racemare has finished in the top three 17 times in 19 career starts and comes into this race off of a Group 1 win in Germany followed by a visually impressive 1 ¾-length score over Ethical Diamond in her North American debut, the Grade 2 AGS Kentucky Turf Cup Invitational Stakes at Kentucky Downs in September. Both of those stakes were held at a mile and a half, and she’s got a record of 3-6-1 in 10 starts at that distance. Should stalk in midpack Saturday and might get the jump on the late closers. A win threat at what should be solid odds, although many of her best races overseas came in Germany – a level below the top races in England and Ireland.
JOCKEY: Luke Morris; TRAINER: Mark Prescott
11. Survie (15-1): This mare usually settled for minor awards in her racing career overseas through 18 starts but then shipped to Saratoga this past summer and went 2-for-2 in graded stakes at a mile and a half, winning a Grade 2 against fillies and mares and then outfinishing Minaret Station by three-quarters of a length in the Christophe Clement Turf Stakes. She then shipped back to Europe and finished a well-defeated 10th of 13 in a Group 1 at Longchamp held at the same distance. Appears a cut below several other overseas shippers, although any runner with Flavien Prat in the irons must be respected.
JOCKEY: Flavien Prat; TRAINER: George Boughey

12. Diamond Necklace (3-1): Based on pure talent, this 3-year-old filly might be tops among the Breeders’ Cup Turf field. She’s 6-1-1 in eight lifetime starts and won both the French One Thousand Guineas held at a mile and the French Oaks held at 1 5/16 miles last spring and early summer. Since then, she’s taken a Group 1 at 1 ¼ miles in England, finished second in a French Group 1 at the same distance, and most impressively ran third behind Daryz and Bay City Roller in the 1 ½-mile Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp Oct. 4, defeated by only 1 ½ lengths. She drew a tough post, and it’s worth noting that Coolmore’s first-call jockey, Ryan Moore, will be aboard stablemate Benvenuto Cellini.
JOCKEY: Christophe Soumillion; TRAINER: Aidan O’Brien
13. Bay City Roller (5-1): This 4-year-old horse named after the mid-1970s Scottish boy-band sensations has a legit chance to win the Turf – if he can overcome a far outside post and also show no signs of fatigue from shipping in after two starts already this month. He’s matched strides with the best long-distance turfers in Europe in October, finishing second to Daryz in the 1 ½-mile Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp and then third behind Ombudsman and Calandagan in the 1 ¼-mile Champion Stakes at Ascot Oct. 17. Any of those three would be favored in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and his 10-length margin back in June when winning a 1 ½-mile Group 1 at Epsom Downs stands out in his 2026 form.
JOCKEY: Oisin Murphy; TRAINER: George Scott
14. Deep Monster (30-1): Yet another international contender with intriguing recent form, this Japan-based 8-year-old won a 1 ½-mile Group 2 stakes in Qatar back in February (El Cordobes was fifth), and then finished third and fourth in group stakes in Hong Kong and his home country in May and October, respectively. He was only two lengths behind top-class Romantic Warrior in the Hong Kong stakes and defeated European Group 1 winner Goliath (11th in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf) in Qatar. Will have to navigate a good trip from a tough post, and if he does should be running late.
JOCKEY: Tom Marquand; TRAINER: Yasutoshi Ikee
15. Map of Stars (20-1): Drew into the Turf after Test Score was scratched. Has assembled a fine record in Europe through 14 starts, tallying six wins, but his best has topped out at a level below most of his competitors in this spot. He’s also 0-for-3 with one third (in a listed stakes) racing at a mile and a half.
JOCKEY: James Doyle; TRAINER: Henri-Francis Graffard
16. Telescopic (also-eligible, 30-1): Will need another defection to draw into the Turf field, and if he does, it will be his graded stakes debut. Reached his best form recently with two allowance wins in Kentucky at 1 ½ and 1 3/8 miles but appears overmatched to say the least against this bunch.
JOCKEY: Luis Saez; COPY: Vicki Oliver
THE PICK: Benvenuto Cellini
LIVE LONGSHOT: Deep Monster
SUPERFECTA: 2-13-10-12