Saturday’s $2 million Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets boasts a long and rich history. The third leg of the Triple Crown dates back to 1867, and analyzing the last 20-30 years of results can help us identify the most likely winner of the 2026 edition.

Even though this year’s Belmont is taking place at 1 1/4 miles and hosted by Saratoga Race Course for the third year in a row (as opposed to its usual configuration of 1 1/2 miles at Belmont Park), searching for commonalities among past winners remains an effective handicapping strategy. Two years ago, our history-driven analysis identified eventual 17-1 longshot winner Dornoch as a main win contender.

With this in mind, here are seven recurring trends to consider when handicapping the 2026 Belmont Stakes:

Tactical speed is an advantage

Horses with tactical (early) speed tend to perform best in the Belmont. While late runners do win from time to time, 15 of the last 20 Belmont winners (75%) were racing within four lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile, including eight winners (40%) who were positioned in first, second, or third place.

Note: the 2020 Belmont Stakes was the first of the three Triuple Crown races due to the COVID-19 pandemic and was held at 1 1/8 miles.

Favor Kentucky Derby starters

Alumni from the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, the first leg of the Triple Crown, have won 16 of the last 25 editions of the Belmont (64%). Of those 16 winners, 12 went straight from the Derby to the Belmont without a race in between.

Beaten Preakness runners rarely win

Horses beaten in the Preakness Stakes, the middle leg of the Triple Crown, rarely bounce back to win the Belmont. The last to do so was Victory Gallop in 1998.

Beware favorites and consider double-digit longshots

Dornoch wins 2024 Belmont Stakes at 17.70-1 odds (Eclipse Sportswire)

Did you know the betting favorite has prevailed in only seven of the last 30 editions of the Belmont? That’s a modest 23% win rate. During the same timeframe, double-digit longshots have won 12 out of 30 editions of the Belmont (40%).

Favor established graded stakes winners

Horses who have won at least one graded stakes race have won 17 of the last 25 editions of the Belmont (68%). This trend has been especially strong in recent years, with 11 of the last 12 Belmont Stakes (92%) going to proven graded stakes winners.

Bet sons of Grade 1-winning route runners

Twenty-one of the last 25 Belmonts winners (84%) were sired by stallions who won a Grade 1 race at 1 1/8 miles or farther. However, the shortening of the Belmont from 1 1/2 miles to 1 1/4 miles could weaken this trend.

Respect horses trained by Todd Pletcher

Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has won four editions of the Belmont since 2007. He’s also saddled nine runners-up and four third-place finishers since 2006. Over the past 20 years, a remarkable 28% of top-three finishers in the Belmont have come from Pletcher’s barn.

Conclusions

By a narrow margin, Emerging Market ranks as the most likely 2026 Belmont Stakes winner from a historical standpoint.

Louisiana Derby winner Emerging Market (Eclipse Sportswire)

Emerging Market matches six of our seven historical angles:

• He’s raced within four lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile in all three of his starts
• He last raced in the Kentucky Derby
• He skipped the Preakness Stakes, avoiding a defeat in the second leg of the Triple Crown
• He won’t be the Belmont betting favorite
• He’s proven graded stakes winner, having battle to victory in the Grade 2 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby
• He’s a son of Candy Ride, winner of the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at 1 1/4 miles

Several other Belmont contenders match five of our historical angles: Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve winner Golden Tempo, Kentucky Derby fourth-place finisher Chief Wallabee, Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes winner Growth Equity, and impressive Churchill Downs maiden winner Powershift.

In contrast, expected favorite Renegade matches only four of our angles. His deep-closing running style and his ranking as the probable betting favorite are two of the three knocks. The other angle he fails to meet is the sire angle; he’s a son of Into Mischief, who failed to win a Grade 1 race at 1 1/8 miles or longer. However, Into Mischief did win the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity at 1 1/16 miles, and he’s the sire of 2025 Belmont winner Sovereignty, so this shouldn’t be a major concern for Renegade.

Enjoy the Belmont Stakes!