Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money. Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

Six Beginner Betting Tools

1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you
3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

Kentucky Derby Day is finally here, and racing fans are treated on this special day to a tremendous program of racing and wagering from Churchill Downs, not just on the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve but all throughout Saturday’s 14-race card. For those interested in my Kentucky Derby analysis, please visit ABR’s Trifecta Picks article detailing the editorial staff’s selections.

For this edition of Weekend Winners, let’s instead focus on handicapping a couple of the great undercard races at Churchill Downs on Saturday. If we can cash-in on a pair of races earlier in the day, we can send it in on the Kentucky Derby and go for the really big score. Good luck to you whoever you like in the run for the roses, and I hope you enjoy a great Derby Day!

Saturday, May 2

Churchill Downs, Race 7, $1,000,000 Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes, post time 2:38 p.m. ET

A field of nine fillies and mares has been assembled for this million-dollar race on the lawn. This shapes up as a great, wide-open betting race without a single standout horse, where instead you can make a legit case for any of the nine entrants to win. My selection is #5 Classic Q at solid morning-line odds of 6-1 coming off a very good second-place finish by a half a length behind Lush Lips in Gulfstream Park’s Grade 3 Honey Fox Stakes Presented by MyRacehorse. Lush Lips would likely be favored in this race, and she not only beat Classic Q in the Honey Fox but also was her nemesis here at Churchill Downs last fall when Classic Q was third in the Grade 2 Mrs. Revere Stakes. Classic Q has been knocking on the door at the top rung of competition at times, and while this field is very solid, it lacks any of the divisional leaders capable of denying Classic Q yet again. When she stays out of trouble early as she did last time under jockey John Velazquez, she has the speed to be on or near the lead, and this one-mile distance is clearly right in her wheelhouse. #7 Movin’ On Up is another contender looking for a breakthrough win in this spot with many of the principals in the division absent from the field. She ran a very respectable third by a length this winter in the Grade 2 Pegasus Filly and Mare Turf Invitational Stakes Presented by TAA and also was third by a length in this same race last year. She’s an ideal addition to exactas and trifectas at 12-1 odds. #4 Temptable is another interesting candidate now making her first start since joining the Bill Mott barn last fall. She had the look of an up-and-coming 3-year-old in Europe last year and was not embarrassed on Breeders’ Cup weekend in a Grade 3 race at Del Mar in her first U.S. start. Temptable fits well vs. this field now making her 4-year-old debut.

The Play: Bet on #5 Classic Q (6-1) to win and box her in exactas and trifectas along with #4 Temptable (8-1), and #7 Movin’ On Up (12-1).

Churchill Downs, Race 8, $750,000 Pat Day Mile Stakes Presented by SAP, post time 3:23 p.m. ET

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A fascinating, full field has been assembled for the Pat Day Mile for 3-year-olds on the main track. The pace of this race should be fast and furious with several of the very talented favorites in the field likely to show speed and go out on or close to the lead. That should set the race up for an upset from off the pace and the top candidate is perhaps one of the best overlays of the entire weekend, #4 Secured Freedom at 20-1 odds on the morning line. Since Secured Freedom’s Santa Anita Park maiden win in December, he has been competitive against west coast Derby hopefuls like So Happy, Potente, Robusta, and Intrepido in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes and the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes Presented by DK Horse. Now, instead of pursuing longer races, he’s cutting back to his likely wheelhouse at one mile. As a result, he will find himself in an ideal spot in this race sitting behind a very fast and contentious pace set by some horses that are unproven at this distance. Take the big odds and go for it. Along with Secured Freedom in the exactas and trifectas, some of the speedsters in this field should at least hold on for spots in the top three. #7 Crown the Buckeye has blazing speed and was good enough to finish in the money in races like Fair Grounds’ Gun Runner Stakes and Aqueduct’s Grade 3 Gotham Stakes. Trainer Bob Baffert sends #6 Crude Velocity here for his first stretchout to a mile after going 2-for-2 so far at 6 ½ furlongs. He’s a horse with tactical speed that should be fast enough to race within shouting distance while also able to stay out of a possible early pace meltdown.

The Play: Bet on #4 Secured Freedom (20-1) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes along with #6 Crude Velocity (5-2) and #7 Crown the Buckeye (6-1).