Saturday’s $2 million, Grade 1 Ainsworth Franklin-Simpson Stakes at Kentucky Downs takes place at the unusual distance of 6 1/2 furlongs (13/16ths of a mile) on turf. It’s longer than typical turf sprints, but considerably shorter than a mile.
The distance may prove unsuitable for a couple of otherwise formidable contenders. #4 Dream On has excelled racing one mile, winning the Grade 3 Penn Mile Stakes and finishing third in the Grade 1 bet365 Summer Stakes last September. But he lost his lone previous start sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs, so cutting back in distance is a question mark.
#7 Governor Sam faces the opposite obstacle. The speedy colt has won the Grade 3 Quick Call Stakes Presented by Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation, Indian Summer Stakes Presented by Keeneland Select, Exacta Systems Rosie’s Stakes, and Tyro Stakes sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs or less. But he’s never tried longer distances, and his past performances suggest racing 6 1/2 furlongs may stretch the limits of his stamina.
In contrast, Juddmonte homebred #8 Spiced Up looks like a great fit for 6 1/2 furlongs and the up-and-coming colt is my top choice.
Spiced Up made his grass debut in a maiden special weight race sprinting six furlongs at Aqueduct. After rating a couple of lengths behind fast fractions of :21.51 and :43.85, he powered clear to win by 2 3/4 lengths in 1:07.43, in the process giving the impression he’d have relished more ground.
That impression was reiterated when Spiced Up stepped up in class for the Grade 3 Mahony Stakes sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga last month. After falling as many as 7 1/2 lengths behind intense splits of :21.15 and :43.71, Spiced Up gobbled up ground in the stretch to defeat Governor Sam by 1 1/4 lengths in 1:01.22.
Spiced Up will get more ground to work with in the Franklin-Simpson, so he’ll have every chance to bring his turf record to a perfect 3-for-3.
Depending on your wagering budget, we recommend betting Spiced Up to win and perhaps playing him on top of an exacta using Dream On, Governor Sam, and #11 Out On Bail for second place.
Out On Bail has shown versatility from a distance standpoint. He finished second to Governor Sam in the Rosie’s Stakes and Indian Summer Stakes sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs and second to Dream On in the one-mile Penn Mile. Perhaps 6 1/2 furlongs will be the sweet spot for Out On Bail.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 to win on #8 Spiced Up
What to say at the betting window: Kentucky Downs, Race 10, $10 to win on 8
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$18 to win on #8 Spiced Up
What to say at the betting window: Kentucky Downs, Race 10, $10 to win on 8
$4 exacta: 8 with 4,7,11 (total cost: $12)
What to say at the betting window: Kentucky Downs, Race 10, $4 exacta 8 with 4,7,11
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
