The 2025 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve is almost here. The hotly anticipated run for the roses is one of the most scrutinized races in the world, and there are many historical trends and tendencies that bettors can use to identify the most likely winner.

Here are 11 historical angles to help you handicap the 2025 Kentucky Derby:

Early speed is an advantage

While it’s possible for deep closers to win the Kentucky Derby – especially if the pace is fast with an opening half mile quicker than :46 seconds – on the whole, horses with some degree of early speed perform best. Seven of the last 15 Kentucky Derby winners (for betting purposes) were racing in the top three after the opening half-mile, while 11 of the last 15 winners were racing in the front half of the field.

(Note: For the purpose of this analysis, we are counting Medina Spirit as the winner of the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Although he was later disqualified, he remained the winner for determining betting payoffs.)

Look for horses who finished fast in their final prep

A fast finish at the end of a shorter prep race bodes well for success in the Kentucky Derby. No fewer than 20 of the last 27 Kentucky Derby winners ran the last three furlongs (three-eighths of a mile) of their final prep race in under :38 seconds. Here is a listing of how fast every 2025 contender finished in their last prep race.

Derby contenders who finished their last prep race in under :38 seconds: Final Gambit, Luxor Cafe, Rodriguez, Tappan Street, Sovereignty, Flying Mohawk, Grande, and Journalism.

Respect California shippers and Florida Derby participants

Tappan Street. (Sophie Shore/Eclipse Sportswire)

Seven of the last 15 horses who crossed the wire first in the Kentucky Derby (Medina Spirit, Authentic, Justify, Nyquist, American Pharoah, California Chrome, and I’ll Have Another) spent the winter in California and completed the majority of their training at Santa Anita Park, including five horses who contested the Santa Anita Derby. California is a productive place to prep for the Derby, but the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park also has done well, churning out four winners (Orb, Nyquist, Always Dreaming, and Mage) since 2010.

Derby contenders who trained and/or raced in California during the winter: Journalism, Rodriguez, Citizen Bull, and Baeza.

Derby contenders exiting the Florida Derby: Tappan Street, Sovereignty, and Neoequos.

Be cautious betting Blue Grass and Wood Memorial starters

The Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland hasn’t produced a Kentucky Derby winner since 2007, and a horse hasn’t won both races since 1991. Betting Blue Grass starters to win the Kentucky Derby hasn’t been a productive strategy in recent years, though they occasionally finish second or third as was the case last year with Sierra Leone, who won the Blue Grass before finishing second in the Kentucky Derby.

Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial Stakes is likewise in a dry spell. It hasn’t produced a Derby winner since 2003, and since then only one Wood Memorial starter has finished in the Kentucky Derby trifecta.

Derby contenders exiting the Blue Grass: Burnham Square, East Avenue, Render Judgment, and Owen Almighty.

Derby contenders exiting the Wood Memorial: Rodriguez and Grande.

Avoid betting horses drawn in post 1 and post 2

It’s hard to win the Kentucky Derby while breaking from one of the two innermost post positions. The last horse to win from post 1 was Ferdinand in 1986, the last winner from post 2 was Affirmed in 1978.

Beware horses who ran in less than two, or more than three prep races

Did you know 18 of the last 20 Kentucky Derby winners (for betting purposes) contested only two or three races as three-year-old before the first Saturday in May? Horses with either one prep or four or more preps have largely struggled in the last two decades of Derby history.

Derby contenders who ran in one race or four or more races between January and April: Rodriguez and Owen Almighty.

Grande. (Jason Moran/Eclipse Sportswire)

Juvenile racing experience is important

Only three horses have won the Kentucky Derby without racing at age two: Apollo (1882), Justify (2018), and Mage (2023). It’s tough to prepare for a winning Derby run without a foundation of juvenile racing experience.

Derby contenders who did not race at age two: Grande.

Avoid horses who haven’t raced in the last five weeks

Since 1956, only two horses (Animal Kingdom and Authentic) have won the Kentucky Derby off a layoff of six weeks or more. Furthermore, Authentic’s win (off a seven-week break) came in 2020 when the Derby was postponed until September due to COVID-19 and traditional prep schedules went out the window.

Derby contenders who haven’t raced in the last five weeks: Tiztastic, Final Gambit, Chunk of Gold, American Promise, Flying Mohawk, Neoequos, and California Burrito.

Beware horses who finished fifth or worse in their final prep

Since 1958, without exception, every horse who generated a win payoff in the Kentucky Derby finished fourth or better in their final prep race.

Derby contenders who finished fifth or worse in their final prep: Owen Almighty, Built, Render Judgment, and California Burrito.

Sandman. (Tommy Land/Eclipse Sportswire)

Favor horses sired by Grade 1-winning route racers 

Horses sired by stallions who won at the Grade 1 level racing 1 1/16 miles or farther routinely win the Kentucky Derby. To be specific, 12 of the last 15 Kentucky Derby winners (for betting purposes) fit this example. The exceptions being Orb, California Chrome, and Medina Spirit.

Derby contenders sired by stallions who won at the Grade 1 level racing 1 1/16 miles or farther: Burnham Square, Sandman, Journalism, Rodriguez, Tiztastic, Tappan Street, Sovereignty, Chunk of Gold, Citizen Bull, East Avenue, Publisher, American Promise, Grande, Luxor Cafe, Render Judgment, and Baeza.

Contenders who have raced outside of the U.S. and Canada rarely win

Forever Young came within a head of winning in third in the 2024 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve and nearly became an exception to this rule, however, he was an outlier. A horse with experience racing outside of the U.S. and Canada hasn’t won the Kentucky Derby since 1976 when Bold Forbes started his career in the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico before prepping for the Derby in the U.S. Since then, horses who have raced outside of the U.S. and Canada have gone 0-for-48 in the Kentucky Derby. Horses who have raced exclusively outside of the U.S. and Canada have likewise struggled, going 0-for-16 since 1992. Until Forever Young, none of those even recorded a top-five finish.

Derby contenders who have raced outside of the U.S. and Canada: Admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe.

Derby contenders who have raced exclusively outside of the U.S. and Canada: Admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe.

Conclusions

Journalism. (Lindsay Affleck/Eclipse Sportswire)

Pending the post position draw, two horses almost perfectly match our historical profile of a typical Kentucky Derby winner: Journalism and Tappan Street.

Journalism has enjoyed a productive two-prep campaign in California, most notably winning the Santa Anita Derby over a strong field four weeks ago. Tappan Street has likewise run in two preps and exits a triumph in the Curlin Florida Derby presented by Hill'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa five weeks ago. They raced as juveniles, they’re sons of Grade 1-winning route racers, they both finished their final prep in under :38 seconds, and they’ve campaigned exclusively in the United States.

The one knock against Tappan Street is the fact he has less early speed than Journalism. He closed from four lengths off the lead in the Florida Derby and from 3 1/2 lengths back when second in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes.

In contrast, Journalism stayed within 2 1/2 lengths of the pace for the first half mile of the Santa Anita Derby, and he was never more than 2 1/2 lengths behind at any point in the DK Horse San Felipe Stakes.

This year’s prospective Kentucky Derby field is packed with speed horses, so there’s a chance Tappan Street will drop into the back half of the field during the early stages, which is historically a negative. Journalism, however, should be tactical enough to stay in the front half of the field, so history suggests Journalism is the most likely winner of the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

Good luck with your Kentucky Derby handicapping!