All the prep races have been completed, and the field is close to finalized for the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve May 3 at Churchill Downs. Determining which horses will appreciate stretching out over 1 1/4 miles for the Kentucky Derby is an annual handicapping challenge bettors must tackle. One way is to analyze how fast each horse ran the last three-eighths of a mile of their final prep race.

A 3-year-old racehorse who shows strong finishing speed at the end of a shorter prep race has a good chance to successfully handle 1 1/4 miles. National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame Joe Hirsch Media Roll of Honor inductee Jennie Rees popularized this approach to handicapping the Kentucky Derby. Rees noted that a strong finish involves sprinting the final three-eighths of a mile in 38 seconds or less and the final eighth of a mile in 13 seconds or less.

The final three-eighths fraction alone has been a terrific indicator of win-worthy Derby contenders, with 10 of the last 13 Kentucky Derby winners (and 20 of the last 27) finishing the final three-eighths of a mile in their final prep race in less than 38 seconds.

(Note: Although Medina Spirit was disqualified from his Kentucky Derby victory due to a positive post-race drug test, he remained the winner for betting purposes. Since Medina Spirit is the horse bettors had to identify to cash Kentucky Derby wagers, we have included Medina Spirit’s data accordingly.)

Mystik Dan winning 2014 Kentucky Derby (Eclipse Sportswire)

Finishing fractions can be affected by many factors, such as the speed of a racetrack on any given day (some are slower than others), the surface (dirt or all-weather), and the early pace of the race (it’s easier to finish fast if you’ve gone slow early on). But even with these caveats, the 38-seconds-or-less rule is an excellent guide to identifying formidable Kentucky Derby contenders.

We have compiled a chart displaying the finishing times of 24 contenders for the 2025 Kentucky Derby, ranked in order of how fast they ran the last three-eighths of a mile of their final prep race. Data is drawn from result charts except in the case of the UAE Derby and Louisiana Derby, for which closing fractions were calculated by hand-timing video replays. Final times of Louisiana Derby also-rans have been calculated from margins of defeat and the formula that six lengths is equal to one second.

In addition, since the UAE Derby and Fukuryu Stakes are held over metric distances (which are slightly shorter than races held over Imperial distances), the times listed from the UAE Derby and Fukuryu Stakes are mathematical projections of how fast the horses might have run over Imperial distances.

Only eight of the 24 horses on our list managed to run the last three-eighths of a mile of their final prep race in under :38.00. The fastest was Final Gambit, who charged home in :36.21 and :11.91 to win the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks with a last-to-first rally. It should be noted, however, that the Jeff Ruby took place on the all-weather Tapeta Footings surface at Turfway Park, and it remains to be seen whether Final Gambit can reproduce that fast finish on dirt. The same applies to Jeff Ruby runner-up Flying Mohawk, who finished in :37.22.

Japan-based Fukuryu Stakes winner Luxor Cafe (Japan Racing Association photo)

Luxor Café, who has won four straight races in Japan, unleashed an eye-catching burst of acceleration to win the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama with a projected final three-eighths time of :36.51. He benefited from a slow early pace, but Nakayama isn’t an especially fast track, so Luxor Cafe's strong finish must be respected.

The Grade 2 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino yielded excellent finishing fractions from Rodriguez (:36.90) and Grande (:37.24). The Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa also produced quick closing times from Tappan Street (:37.06) and Sovereignty (:37.12).

Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby winner Journalism owns the eighth-fastest closing time on our chart for three-eighths of a mile (:37.59), but his time is arguably the most noteworthy. The Santa Anita Derby took place on a track yielding slower times than the Wood Memorial or Florida Derby, and Journalism finished significantly faster than runner-up Baeza (:38.15) and champion two-year-old male Citizen Bull (:39.91), both of whom fell outside the 38-second cutoff. Even on this slower track, Journalism ran his final furlong in :12.32, which is the third-best time on our chart behind Final Gambit and Luxor Cafe.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, several high-profile Kentucky Derby prep races produced slow finishing times. Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby 1-2 finishers Tiztastic (:38.43) and Chunk of Gold (:39.10) didn’t come close to the 38-second mark. Neither did Toyota Blue Grass Stakes 1-2 finishers Burnham Square (:38.77) and East Avenue (:39.38). Although Sandman and Publisher appeared to be finishing strongly from behind a blazing early pace in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, they were actually decelerating, respectively posting closing fractions of :38.80 and :38.93.

Based on closing speed, Journalism, Tappan Street, Sovereignty, Luxor Cafe, Rodriguez, and Grande are key win threats for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Final Gambit and Flying Mohawk also warrant respect as live longshots, even while switching surfaces.

Good luck with your Kentucky Derby handicapping!