Saturday’s Whitney Stakes at Saratoga drew a competitive field of probably nine horses (#1 Mindframe is expected to be scratched) angling for a “Win and You’re In” berth to the Nov. 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic. The group is headlined by the 1-2 finishers of last year’s Longines Classic, also held at Del Mar, #5 Sierra Leone and #9 Fierceness.

Read on for Whitney Stakes trifecta betting strategies from the team at America’s Best Racing, and use ABR’s handy Gambling Calculator to structure your bets.

Mike Curry:

White Abarrio (Adam Coglianese/NYRA)

The connections of #5 Sierra Leone (2-1) acquired a pacesetter for last year’s Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, a deep closer, to assist in his races. They entered that horse, #8 Contrary Thinking (50-1), in the Whitney, which also drew longshot #4 Mama’s Gold (50-1), who has set the pace in his last six races. I do believe the race should feature a swift early tempo and it should benefit Sierra Leone and, possibly, hurt the chances of #9 Fierceness.

But that pace should also help #10 Post Time (12-1) and #7 White Abarrio (4-1). Post Time is a deep closer who always does his best running late and finished third in the Whitney a year ago. White Abarrio enters off a disappointing unplaced finish in the Hill ‘n’ Dale Metropolitan Handicap on a sloppy track. He’s never won on an “off” track and bounced back from a distant third in the Met Mile two years ago to win the Whitney. I’ll make those two my key to the race (both must finish in the top three) with one of Fierceness or Sierra Leone filling the other spot.

Strategy for a $30 budget:

$2.50 trifecta: #7 White Abarrio and #10 Post Time with #7 White Abarrio and #10 Post Time, with #5 Sierra Leone and #9 Fierceness ($10)

$2.50 trifecta: #7 White Abarrio and #10 Post Time with #5 Sierra Leone and #9 Fierceness with #7 White Abarrio and #10 Post Time ($10)

$2.50 trifecta: #5 Sierra Leone and #9 Fierceness with #7 White Abarrio and #10 Post Time with #7 White Abarrio and #10 Post Time ($10)

Noel Michaels:

In this headline match-up between #5 Sierra Leone and #9 Fierceness along with a very strong supporting cast, give me Fierceness, who looks like the better option at Saratoga and at the distance of 1 1/8 miles. Sierra Leone beat Fierceness in the 2024 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic and Fierceness will have work to do to turn the tables, but Sierra Leone’s late-running style has not proven compatible with Saratoga’s track layout that tends to favor horses closer to the pace, leading to Sierra Leone’s 0-for-3 record at the Spa to date.

Meanwhile, Fierceness demonstrated his affinity for this oval with wins in both the Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun and DraftKings Travers Stakes last year. Fierceness was a disappointing second last time in the Grade 1 Hill ‘n’ Dale Metropolitan Handicap, but the one-mile distance of that race was a bit shorter than he prefers. He's been pointed to this race all along for trainer Todd Pletcher and should be ready for his best effort. Sierra Leone will be closing late and shouldn’t be too far behind.

That leaves us one more spot to fill in the trifectas, and it goes to the horse with the best chance at an upset, #7 White Abarrio. It seems you never know what you’re going to get when it comes to White Abarrio, but his best races have been good enough to earn him wins in races like the 2023 Whitney Stakes, the 2023 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic, and more recently when resurgent in the $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes earlier this year.

Strategy for a $50 budget:

$5 trifecta box: #5 Sierra Leone, #7 White Abarrio, and #9 Fierceness ($30)

$10 trifecta: #9 Fierceness with #5 Sierra Leone and #7 White Abarrio, with #5 Sierra Leone and #7 White Abarrio ($20)

Patrick Reed:

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This year’s Whitney shapes up as an exciting race, but I think overall the results will be fairly formful. As discussed in several race previews across different publications, owner Peter Brant and trainer Chad Brown entered allowance winner #8 Contrary Thinking in the Whitney to serve as a pacesetter or “rabbit” for stablemate #5 Sierra Leone, a deep closer who should be ready to fire his best shot in his third start of the year. #4 Mama’s Gold, a New York-bred stakes winner who is stepping up in class, also has plenty of early speed, and he and Contrary Thinking could turn the Saratoga backstretch into a drag strip if they both run to their reputations.

That said, I actually think a fast early pace will benefit #9 Fierceness most of all. Hall of Famer John Velazquez is completely in sync with his mount’s talents and running style having ridden Fierceness for nine consecutive starts, and he should have the colt settled in snugly behind the first two or three pacesetters (#2 Skippylongstocking also could be close) and ready to inhale them coming out of the far turn at Saratoga, where he’s won three of four starts. I think Fierceness gets the jump on a stalking #7 White Abarrio, deep closing Sierra Leone and #10 Post Time, and wild card #3 Highland Falls and has more than enough stamina in reserve to fend that quartet off in the final yards.

Strategy for a $30 budget:

$2 trifecta: #9 Fierceness with #3 Highland Falls, #5 Sierra Leone, #7 White Abarrio, and #10 Post Time, with #3 Highland Falls, #5 Sierra Leone, #7 White Abarrio, and #10 Post Time ($24)

$2 trifecta: #9 Fierceness with #5 Sierra Leone with #3 Highland Falls, #7 White Abarrio, and #10 Post Time ($6)

Dan Tordjman:

This is such a deep field loaded with talent. On any given day, I could envision any of four horses winning this race. The most logical winner is #9 Fierceness. His early issues with bouts of inconsistency are long gone and these days he’s as much of a sure thing as any racehorse. Yes, he lost to Raging Torrent over this very track back in June in the Hill ‘n’ Dale Metropolitan Handicap (Met Mile) but the winner in that race had things his own way and things didn’t exactly set up for Fierceness. He’ll also thrive on the added distance of Saturday’s race and seems like a lock to finish first or second. 

Another horse coming out of the Met Mile who is bound to run a better race – at a better price than Fierceness – is #7 White Abarrio. The Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes winner won this race with ease two years ago. Even if he’s lost a step, he’s still a contender to win this year’s Whitney if he shows up with a max performance. Others I have my eyes on are #6 Disarm and #10 Post Time. Both are immensely talented but will likely be running too late and end up just a bit short. I can almost guarantee that one of the two will be in the trifecta. 

Strategy for a $48 budget:

$1 trifecta box: #6 Disarm, #7 White Abarrio, #9 Fierceness, and #10 Post Time ($24)

$4 trifecta: #7 White Abarrio and #9 Fierceness, with #7 White Abarrio and #9 Fierceness, with #6 Disarm and #10 Post Time ($24)