The Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes Saturday at Fair Grounds brings together a deep 12-horse field, consisting of seven 3-year-olds that have won or placed in stakes races so far in their short careers.
Leading the field in terms of accomplishments is Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes winner Honor Marie, one of four horses that have not run for more than two months. Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes runner-up Real Men Violin is another, as is Sierra Leone, who finished second by a nose in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes in early December when last seen. Moonlight finished fourth in the Remsen and is another returning from a couple of months away from the races. Of the more recent runners, Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes winner Track Phantom may be the one the rest of the field is chasing from the start, as he led from start to finish in that race. Catching Freedom won the Smarty Jones Stakes on New Year’s Day and fits with these, as do recent visually impressive maiden winners Hall of Fame and Resilience. Cardinale was beaten a neck in his second career start and first two-turn race last month and is another improving type. Bee Dancer won his only start, last month, and is stretching out from six furlongs to this 1 1/8-mile distance with the outside post in a big field. Tizzy Indy has won once in seven tries and was most recently fifth in the Lecomte. Similarly, Awesome Ruta has a one for six career record and was recently third in a six-furlong allowance race, so he is stretching out in distance as well as moving up in class.
Top win contenders:
Resilience last ran on Jan. 1 so he ticks the box about recency, as compared with Sierra Leone (Dec. 2), Honor Marie (Nov. 25), and Real Men Violin (Nov. 25). Although 2016 Risen Star Stakes winner Gun Runner — who has two sons represented in this race in Sierra Leone and Hall of Fame — won this race after a fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club the previous fall, all of the other winners in the last 10 years raced no more than seven weeks earlier. Resilience is trained by Bill Mott, who won this race in 2020 with Modernist, who like Resilience had earned his first win just prior to the race. A Hall of Fame trainer, Mott has also had success in stakes races with 3-year-olds off their maiden wins in recent history as a Race Lens query shows he has won four stakes races in 19 starts over the last five years with horses fitting the same pattern as Resilience, with three other horses having finished second. As to the horse himself, Resilience earned a career-best 91 Equibase Speed Figure when winning around two turns on Jan. 1. To put that into perspective, Smarty Jones Stakes winner Catching Freedom earned a 97 figure on the same day while making his third career start in a two-turn race. Considering Resilience is making his third career start in a two-turn race in the Risen Star, we can assume a big jump forward as well and that is why I think the colt can post the upset in this race.
Catching Freedom began his career in a one-mile race (around one turn) in October and won easily to earn an 85 Equibase Speed Figure, improving to an 88 figure although fourth when sent around two turns for the first time the following month. Then in his next start, the Smarty Jones Stakes, Catching Freedom improved considerably to a career-best 97 speed figure. Comparing that effort and figure with the other top contenders in the race, Honor Marie earned a 98 figure winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November, Sierra Leone earned a 99 figure when coming up a nose shy of winning the Remsen Stakes in December, and Track Phantom earned a 100 figure winning the Gun Runner Stakes in December before a 93 figure for winning the Lecomte. Catching Freedom (as well as Resilience) has a running style that fits the probable early pace scenario of this race as well. This is because Track Phantom has been in front after three-quarters of a mile in his last four races (including both stakes wins) and draws the 11 post, requiring him to use a lot of early speed to get to the rail before the first turn. With Awesome Ruta and Bee Dancer both stretching out to two turns from much shorter races, they will very likely want the front as well, as might Cardinale, who nearly led from start to finish in his win last month. All those horses vying for the lead should benefit Catching Freedom nicely, just like in the Smarty Jones, in which he rallied from eighth of nine early to win. As such, Catching Freedom is a strong contender to earn his second stakes win in a row.
Hall of Fame is trained by Steve Asmussen, who also saddles Track Phantom and who saddled 2022 Risen Star winner Epicenter and has won this race three times. Hall of Fame may lack the experience of many of the other entrants in this race, having only run twice, but he fits on many counts. First, he’s a son of Gun Runner, who won the race in 2016 and who was also trained by Asmussen. Second, Hall of Fame earned a 98 Equibase Speed Figure winning by 10 ¼ lengths at Fair Grounds in a two-turn race on Jan. 20. That effort puts the colt squarely in the picture here if repeated or improved upon, so he rounds out the three top contenders to win this year’s Risen Star.
There are a quartet of horses that some bettors may favor, consisting of Honor Marie, Real Men Violin, Sierra Leone, and Track Phantom. Although all appear capable of running competitively by repeating their best efforts, I can also make the case that since few horses in recent history have won this race after having been off for more than six weeks, and as witnessed recently in the Feb. 3 Holy Bull Stakes with Fierceness, they may not be capable of running well enough to win. Specifically, Sierra Leone earned a 99 figure when coming up a nose short in the Remsen, Honor Marie earned a 98 figure winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, while Real Men Violin earned a 95 figure when second in that race and Track Phantom earned a 100 figure winning the Gun Runner Stakes in December before a winning the Lecomte Stakes with a 93 figure.
The rest of the field (with best representative Equibase Speed Figure): Awesome Ruta (84), Bee Dancer (86), Cardinale (85), Moonlight (89) and Tizzy Indy (72).
Win Contenders, in preference order:
Resilience
Catching Freedom
Hall of Fame
Pick 4
7-10-1-4
7-10-1-4
$727
Pick 5
5-7-10-1-4
5-7-10-1-4
$3,393
Pick 6
6-5-7-10-1-4
6-5-7-10-1-4
$310
Pick 6
6-5-7-10-1-4
6-5-7-10-1-4
$36,956
Superfecta
4-11-8-10
4-11-8-10
$55
Trifecta
4-11-8
4-11-8
$36
Pick 4
7-10-1-4
7-10-1-4
$727
Pick 5
5-7-10-1-4
5-7-10-1-4
$3,393
Pick 6
6-5-7-10-1-4
6-5-7-10-1-4
$310
Pick 6
6-5-7-10-1-4
6-5-7-10-1-4
$36,956
Superfecta
4-11-8-10
4-11-8-10
$55
Trifecta
4-11-8
4-11-8
$36
