Southern California racing returns to Santa Anita Park with the track’s 2024 Autumn Meet set to begin on Sept. 27 and continue through Sunday, Oct. 27.  Santa Anita’s fall meet is one of the season’s premier meets and is sure to offer prime betting opportunities and high-quality racing on both the turf and dirt.

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In addition to daily top-notch racing at every level, Santa Anita will offer 22 stakes including the inaugural $1 million, Grade 1 California Crown Stakes Presented by SirDavis American Whisky during its 16-raceday season. The stakes program will be an important steppingstone for horses preparing for this fall’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships.

The first-ever California Crown Day at Santa Anita will feature five stakes worth $2.8 million in purse money on Saturday, Sept. 28. The event’s namesake California Crown Stakes for 3-year-olds and older at 1 1/8 miles on dirt is the reimagined version of the former Awesome Again Stakes that serves as Santa Anita’s major prep race for the $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic.

In addition to the California Crown, Santa Anita will host four more Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series “Win and You’re In” qualifying races during the fall meet, including the City of Hope Mile Stakes Presented by MyRacehorse (prep for FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile Presented by PDJF) on Sept. 28. The other three Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series races are on Oct. 5: the Grade 2 Oak Leaf Stakes Presented by Oak Tree (prep for NetJets Juvenile Fillies), the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes Presented by DK Horse (FanDuel Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance), and the Grade 2 Rodeo Drive Stakes (Maker’s Mark Filly & Mare Turf).

Get to know Santa Anita – ‘The Great Race Place’

When handicapping Santa Anita, there are multiple trends horseplayers should pay attention to in order to improve their winning percentage. Here are some things to watch for ...

A racehorse schools in the Santa Anita paddock. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Santa Anita’s main track can yield some post-position and running-style biases and angles, and this is certainly true based on the statistics from the three most recent meets in fall 2023, the winter meet from Dec. 26, 2023, to April 7, 2024, and the spring/summer meet from April 19 to June 16.

On the main track, the predominant way for horses to win Santa Anita sprint races is with early speed. There were 267 dirt sprints run at Santa Anita in the track’s three meets over the past year, and 160 of those races (60%) were won by horses racing on the pace or within one length of the early lead. This represents a giant advantage over stalkers racing 1-4 lengths off the pace who won 85 dirt sprints accounting for 32%, and closers coming from 4-plus lengths behind, who won only 23 of the 267 dirt sprints, accounting for 9%.

In terms of post positions in dirt sprints, inside post positions tend to be the best at Santa Anita and that has been the case the past year with horses breaking from posts 1-3 winning 144 of the 267 dirt sprints to account for 54% of the winners. Santa Anita dirt sprints have an average field size of 6.69 runners per race. The best combination for you to bet on in Santa Anita sprints is speed horses from the inside posts 1-3. Those inside speed types won 85 of the 267 dirt sprints to account for nearly one-third of all winners of those races (32%).

Dirt route races at Santa Anita play much the same way as sprints, but the front-running and inside advantages are not as dramatic. Santa Anita ran 158 dirt route races (including one mile) over the past year with speedy horses racing on or close to the lead winning 85 of the races to account for wins in 54% of the races. Stalkers won 36% of the routes and closers won 10%. You would think that post positions would be more important in dirt routes than they are in dirt sprints, but that was not true during the past year. Horses breaking from middle posts 4-6 do statistically just as well as horses from the inside posts in two-turn races.

Santa Anita turf trends

Santa Anita’s turf course is home to some of the best grass racing in the country and it generally plays fairly to all running styles and running paths, with horses routinely being able to win races both on the lead and from off the pace. Obviously, it is better to save as much ground as possible and stay within a workable striking distance of the lead, but horses have a fair chance from outside post-position draws, and no matter if they go to the lead, press, stalk, or close from off the pace.

2023 City of Hope Mile Stakes (Eclipse Sportswire)

In 213 turf route races run at Santa Anita the past year, speed horses and stalkers had a slight advantage over closers coming from 4-plus lengths off the pace. The best post positions were not inside posts as you might think, and outside posts were not too much of a disadvantage, but the best posts were middle posts 4-6, which yielded wins in 88 of Santa Anita’s 213 turf routes to account for wins in 41% of the races.

In turf sprints, Santa Anita has long been a turf sprint epicenter thanks to its unique 6 ½-furlong downhill turf course. These days, Santa Anita also conducts turf sprints from a backstretch turf chute that accommodates turf sprints at a variety of distances. On the downhill course, the first turn in the race actually is a right turn, and with decades of stats for these races it’s generally accepted by handicappers that the inside posts 1-3 are a disadvantage in turf sprints down the hill. In terms of preferred running styles, speed horses, stalkers, and closers all won at nearly identical win percentages in a sample of 44 downhill turf sprints at 6 ½ furlongs over the past year.

Flat turf sprints from the backstretch turf chute have become more common than downhill turf sprints at Santa Anita, and there were 170 of those races run during the past year. Post positions generally are fair in those races, but the win percentages slowly decrease the farther out you go with horses from posts 1-3 doing the best. Early speed or at least some tactical speed tends to be much more of a key in the flat turf sprints at Santa Anita than in downhill turf sprints. Horses on or close to the pace won 67 of the 170 flat turf sprints the past year (39%), while stalkers 1-4 lengths off the pace won 71 times for 42%. Closers were at a disadvantage if they had to come from more than four lengths off the pace with 32 wins in the 170 races, accounting for 19%.

Santa Anita fall trainer trends

Trainer Mark Glatt (BENOIT photo)

The leading trainer at the 2023 Santa Anita fall meet was Mark Glatt, who won the training title 12 wins to 11 in a squeaker over runner-up Phil D’Amato. Glatt accomplished the training title thanks to an excellent 24% win percentage. D’Amato started a lot more horses and won at a much lower 12% clip. If you want to go back to the 2022 fall meet, Peter Miller edged Phil D’Amato 16 wins to 15 to win the title two years ago.

The rest of the 2023 Santa Anita Autumn Meet top 10 was Miller with 10 wins, Richard Mandella, John Sadler, and George Papaprodromou with nine wins, Doug O’Neill, Peter Eurton, and Michael McCarthy with eight wins, and Bob Baffert with 6 wins from 41 starters for 15%. The best bets among trainers for handicappers were Glatt based on his 24%; Mandella, who had a giant 35% win percentage; Eurton, who won at 28%; and Dan Blacker, who won with 4 of his 11 starters at the meet for 36%.

At the recently completed Del Mar summer meet, Baffert won the title with 23 wins and a 30% win percentage. D’Amato started nearly twice as many horses and had 21 wins but with a much more modest 14% win percentage. O’Neill finished third with 18 wins (14%), followed by Sadler in fourth with 17 wins (25%), and Glatt in fifth with 16 wins (16%).

Santa Anita top jockeys

Jockey Juan Hernandez (Eclipse Sportswire)

In the jockey’s room, based on win statistics from last year’s corresponding autumn Santa Anita meet, the rider to beat for the jockey title will be Juan Hernandez, who won last year’s fall meet title with 24 wins (25%). The clear second and third in terms of wins were Umberto Rispoli (20 wins, 22%) and Antonio Fresu (19 wins, 19%).

Hernandez ran away with the recently concluded Del Mar meet title with 47 wins (28%). The clear second and third in terms of wins were Fresu (36 wins, 17%) and Rispoli (32 wins, 22%). Hector Berrios, Kyle Frey, and Kazushi Kimura were next. Mike Smith can be relevant at this Santa Anita fall meet. He had 9 wins from just 63 mounts for 14% at Del Mar and won 5 races from 44 mounts at last fall’s Santa Anita meet.

At the other recent Santa Anita meets, Hernandez was the winningest rider with 53 wins (22%) at Santa Anita’s Dec. 26, 2023, to April 9, 2024, meet, seven more than Fresu’s 46 victories (18%). Hernandez also won a close race at the April 19 to June 16 Santa Anita meet with 36 wins (20%), one more than Fresu at 35 (19%).

Get ready for a tip-tip autumn season of racing and wagering at Santa Anita Park. Good luck and enjoy the meet.