The Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity provides six aspiring 2-year-olds a chance to get on the radar on the road to the 150th Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve next May, and also awards points in the series which could be very important as these colts progress. Bob Baffert, who won the Los Alamitos Futurity seven straight times from 2014 through 2020, saddles three horses in the field led by Wine Me Up, who finished second in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes in October before a second-to-last place effort in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile presented by TAA. Stronghold earned stakes experience when he finished second last month in the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes. Ace of Clubs has both two-turn and stakes experience, albeit on turf, finishing fourth in the Grade 3 Zuma Beach Stakes then fifth in the Qatar Golden Mile Stakes in November. The other three are attempting to go from maiden winner to stakes winner, but that is not unheard of as a number of talented 2-year-olds have accomplished that feat in this race in recent history. Those three horses are Moonlit Sonata, and the Baffert pair of Coach Prime and Wynstock.
Top contenders:
Coach Prime is named after Deion Sanders, former star football player and now coach of the Colorado University Buffaloes. The equine Coach Prime hasn’t yet achieved that level of success, but he might over the next few months if the talent displayed in his 7 ¼-length win last month is indicative of what he might accomplish in the Los Alamitos Futurity and on the road to the Kentucky Derby in 2024. That win came in only the second race of his career and in his first try around two turns on dirt. In that race, Coach Prime displayed a tremendous talent as he moved quickly from sixth with a quarter-mile to run to be in front by two lengths with an eighth of a mile to go, widening his lead with ease after that. The effort earned a 96 Equibase Speed Figure, which not only indicates the fastest race run to date by any of the horses in this race, it’s also as good as the figures earned by the last two winners of this race – Practical Move and Slow Down Andy. Considering we should expect improvement off that effort in the third start of his career, Coach Prime is the one to beat in this race and could provide Bob Baffert with his 11th win in the last 16 editions of the Los Alamitos Futurity.
Stronghold has more racing experience, and stakes experience, than Coach Prime and that could mean something in the late stages of this race. After a runner-up debut in August in a six-furlong sprint, Stronghold stretched out to two turns and showed good maturity, as well as ability, when starting out fourth then moving to the lead with three-eighths of a mile to run, before drawing off. In doing so, he improved to an 89 Equibase Speed Figure from 86 in his debut. Stronghold then ran in the Bob Hope Stakes on Nov. 19, when he started third then moved up to engage the leader after a half-mile. Leading by a head at that point, Stronghold succumbed to eventual 8 ¾-length winner Nysos but was still well clear of the third-place horse at the finish. Although his effort yielded a lesser 83 figure than the previous race, it could have been he didn’t have to run that hard to hold second after the cause was lost. The case can be made Stronghold could improve markedly off his previous effort, and when combined with more racing experience, that gives him a chance at the slight upset.
Moonlit Sonata is trained by Tim Yakteen, who saddled the 2022 Los Alamitos Futurity winner, Practical Move, to victory. Practical Move had finished third in the Bob Hope, similar to Stronghold having finished second in that race this year. Moonlit Sonata broke slowly in a 10-horse field in his debut three weeks ago, but the talented colt put on a display after that by racing six paths wide on the far turn to go from fourth to second entering the stretch, before easily moving by the leader to win by 2 1/2 lengths. More than a few recent maiden winners in history have won the Los Alamitos Futurity, and considering the 90 speed figure Moonlit Sonata earned in that debut victory recently, and considering his pedigree (Malibu Moon out of a Distorted Humor mare) strongly suggests he will run even better around two turns, it is entirely possible he can take a big step forward to win this race.
The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure): Ace of Clubs (89), Wine Me Up (94) and Wynstock (85).
Win contenders, in preference/probability order:
Coach Prime
Stronghold
Moonlit Sonata
Pick 4
5-5-2-2
5-5-2-2
$4,939
Pick 6
3-6-5-5-2-2
3-6-5-5-2-2
$89,795
Pick 6
3-6-5-5-2-2
3-6-5-5-2-2
$1,211
Superfecta
2-3-5-6
2-3-5-6
$10
Super High Five
2-3-5-6-4
2-3-5-6-4
$137
Trifecta
2-3-5
2-3-5
$129
Pick 4
5-5-2-2
5-5-2-2
$4,939
Pick 6
3-6-5-5-2-2
3-6-5-5-2-2
$89,795
Pick 6
3-6-5-5-2-2
3-6-5-5-2-2
$1,211
Superfecta
2-3-5-6
2-3-5-6
$10
Super High Five
2-3-5-6-4
2-3-5-6-4
$137
Trifecta
2-3-5
2-3-5
$129
