Slight Edge to Midnight Stroll in Bessarabian Stakes

November 9th, 2023 by Ellis Starr

Woodbine, Bessarabian Stakes, Americas Best Racing, Penelope Miller

Fans at Woodbine keep a close eye on the racing action at the Ontario-area racetrack. (Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing)

The Grade 2, $175,000 Bessarabian Stakes at Woodbine drew a field of 14 fillies and mares, including nine previous stakes winners. Our Flash Drive, who won the race in 2022, is back seeking a repeat victory. Additionally, the winner of the 2020 Bessarabian, Artie’s Princess, also was entered the race.

In terms of recent success at the level, Spun Glass won the Grade 3 Ontario Fashion Stakes Presented by Tanqueray on the main track at Woodbine last month, beating five others who hope to improve their fortunes. Ready to Venture is among that group, having won the Grade 3 Seaway Stakes in September before a sixth-place finish in the Ontario Fashion. Loyalty was third behind Spun Glass in the Ontario Fashion and hopes to run as well as she did this past July when victorious in the Grade 3 Hendrie Stakes. Midnight Stroll has raced in Florida, New York, and Pennsylvania this year, with her best effort coming in her most recent start when second in the Grade 2 Presque Isle Downs Masters Stakes. Both Miss Dracarys and Love to Shop cut back from two-turns to this one-turn race and have stakes-winning form, with Miss Dracarys having won the Grade 2 Dance Smartly Stakes in August and with Love to Shop winning the Toronto Cup Stakes in September. Awesome Treat was only a half-length behind Spun Glass in the Ontario Fashion and may improve enough to win, while Dolce Sopresa rides a two-race winning streak (on turf) into this race. Time for an Angel won three races in a row this summer before a fourth-place effort in her first two-turn race in the Wonder Where Stakes on turf and might improve on the cut back in distance and a return to an all-weather track. Similarly, Owen’s Tour Guide has won two races in a row on the Woodbine main track and may be the horse the rest are chasing in the early stages as she likes to lead from the start. Collecting Flatter won both the My Dear Stakes and Glorious Song Stakes in 2022 but has not finished in the top three in any of her four starts this year. Baby No Worries’ best finish at the level was when a distant third behind Our Flash Drive in the Grade 3 Whimsical Stakes in May but she enters the race off a sharp win.

Main Contenders:

Midnight Stroll (Eclipse Sportswire)

Midnight Stroll gets a very good outside post for this seven-furlong trip which allows her and jockey Trevor McCarthy to avoid any traffic trouble on the long run from the start to the turn. She’s got a closing style which should be beneficial as well, because both Owen’s Tour Guide and Miss Dracarys appear to only be capable of winning when leading from the start, and because there are a number of others who may also want to be very close to the lead early, including Collecting Flatter (who added blinkers two races back). Returning from a two-month layoff on Sept. 18 in the similar Presque Isle Downs Masters Stakes, Midnight Stroll rallied from sixth of seven with a quarter-mile to run, moving up strongly and finishing less than a length behind the winner. Most importantly, that effort yielded a career-best, and field high, last-race 106 Equibase Speed Figure that continued a pattern of improvement from 88 two races before that, to 101 in her previous race. Being a 4-year-old, Midnight Stroll can improve again and that makes her the one to beat in this year’s Bessarabian Stakes.

Loyalty enters the race after leading in the stretch in the Ontario Fashion Stakes last month then being outfinished by both Spun Glass and Awesome Treat. That effort came after she was second in the stretch in the Presque Isle Masters but was out finished by the winner, as well as Midnight Stroll and the third-place finisher when settling for fourth. However, just prior to that Loyalty ran her best race of the season when racing in fourth in the early stages and drawing off by more than two lengths at the end. That effort earned a career-best 103 speed figure and I think that effort is more representative of what we can expect in the Bessarabian. This is because the fast and contested early pace in this field will allow jockey Kazushi Kimura to place Loyalty in fourth or fifth in the early stages, more like she was in the Hendrie and less like she was in her two races since. With the dueling pacesetters and pressers tiring in the last eighth of a mile, Loyalty can move forward and perhaps earn her seventh career win in her 10th career race on the main track.

Spun Glass pulled off the upset at 27.60-1 odds in the Ontario Fashion Stakes last month but perhaps that wasn’t the fluke it appeared to be at the time. She finished second in the Camptown Stakes (on turf) prior to that and was second or third in two other stakes on turf this season. In her only other career start on the all-weather surface, Spun Glass won, then in the Ontario Fashion she took to the main track at Woodbine with aplomb, rallying from eighth of nine to win with a career-best 101 speed figure, which appears to be repeatable as she gets a similar pace setup for her late charge.

The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure): Artie’s Princess (103), Awesome Treat (100). Baby No Worries (97), Collecting Flatter (86), Dolce Sopresa (93), Love to Stop (93), Miss Dracarys (104), Our Flash Drive (114), Owen’s Tour Guide (99), Ready to Venture (GB) (102) and Time for an Angel (85).

Win Contenders (in probability/preference order):

Midnight Stroll

Loyalty

Spun Glass