What do you get when you pit a bunch of talented speed horses accustomed to securing easy leads against each other in a championship race? You get Saturday’s running of the $2 million, Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Santa Anita Park, and maybe — just maybe — you get a stretch-running winner.
The morning-line favorite is #4 Idiomatic (5-2), and certainly her credentials are imposing. The stoutly bred daughter of Curlin has won four consecutive graded stakes, including three in gate-to-wire fashion. She was much the best on a sloppy track in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes at Saratoga Race Course during the summer, carving out a slow pace before kicking away to beat 2022 Longines Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath and 2022 champion 3-year-old filly Nest by four lengths.
Idiomatic was similarly sharp on a fast track in the Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes at Keeneland last month, leading by a minimum of 1 1/2 lengths at every call to win by 4 1/4 lengths. But again, Idiomatic benefited from setting a slow pace while never challenged for the lead.
Idiomatic isn’t the only Distaff entrant who has benefited from easy leads. Check out California sensation #5 Adare Manor (4-1). Like Idiomatic, she’s won four straight graded stakes, including three while leading all the way. In the Grade 2 Zenyatta Stakes last month, Adare Manor led by at least 1 1/2 lengths at every call and set modest fractions on her way to victory by 5 1/4 lengths.
The accomplished 3-year-old filly #8 Randomized (6-1) is yet another example. She’s won three straight stakes in gate-to-wire fashion and benefited from slow fractions in both the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes Presented by Keeneland Sales and the Grade 2 Beldame Stakes. And while #6 Search Results (5-1) isn’t a pure pacesetter, she won a slow-paced edition of the Grade 3 Locust Grove Stakes last time out in front-running fashion and never settles too far off the early lead.
So, what will happen when all these speed horses square off? Perhaps they’ll all relax kindly and waltz along through slow fractions before turning up the heat around the far turn and down the homestretch. But more likely, one or two will take aim at the early lead and speed up the pace as they duel. Whether any of them can withstand a fast pace remains to be seen, but changing running styles in a Breeders’ Cup race isn’t very likely to be a preferred option. Take Idiomatic as an example; even though she won the Grade 2 Delaware Handicap from off the pace after stumbling at the start, she had to work hard to win by a head in a less impressive performance than usual.
Of the speed horses, Idiomatic might be the most formidable, given the quality of competition she’s defeated. It’s possible she’ll out-fight all her pace rivals and hang on through the stretch. But if a hot pace unfolds, it’s also possible Idiomatic will weaken and get caught by a talented stretch runner like #9 Clairiere (4-1).
Clairiere has been competing with aplomb at the graded stakes level since 2020. As a 3-year-old in 2021, she warmed up during the second half of the year and parlayed a victory in the Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes into a fourth-place finisher against older rivals in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, a race in which she was beaten by only three-quarters of a length in a wild finish.
Clairiere remained a force to reckon with in 2022, winning the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Stakes and Grade 2 Shuvee Stakes before finishing a distant fifth in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes. But that defeat didn’t stop Clairiere from bouncing back with a strong run in her second Breeders’ Cup Distaff; to the contrary, Clairiere finished third by a head in a three-horse photo finish.
Now 5 years old, Clairiere is enjoying her best season yet. Spring victories in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap and Ogden Phipps Stakes preceded a pace-compromised second in the Shuvee Stakes, after which Clairiere misfired for the second straight year in the Personal Ensign Stakes, finishing fifth. Since then, Clairiere has trained strongly at Santa Anita, suggesting she’s ready to rebound for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. If she gets a serious pace to chase on Saturday, perhaps Clairiere’s third Breeders’ Cup appearance will be the charm, resulting in a breakthrough championship win.
So how should we bet the Breeders’ Cup Distaff? If we figure Idiomatic is the best of the speed horses and Clairiere is the best of the closers, then it’s not unrealistic to box them in an exacta. If they run 1-2 in either order, we’ll cash a winning ticket.
Bettors playing on larger budgets can add a trifecta for good measure. In the third slot, we’ll use 2023 Longines Kentucky Oaks winner #3 Pretty Mischievous (8-1) and the above-mentioned Adare Manor.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$5 exacta: box 4,9 ($10)
What to say at the betting window: Santa Anita, Race 7, $5 exacta box 4,9
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$10 exacta: box 4,9 ($20)
What to say at the betting window: Santa Anita, Race 7, $10 exacta box 4,9
$2.50 trifecta: 4,9 with 4,9 with 3,5 ($10)
What to say at the betting window: Santa Anita, Race 7, $2.50 trifecta 4,9 with 4,9 with 3,5
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
Pick 4
6-1-14-2/3/4
6-1-14-2/3/4
$70
Pick 5
2/3/7-6-1-14-2/3/4
2/3/7-6-1-14-2/3/4
$127
Daily Double
(JFILLY/DISTAFF)12-4
(JFILLY/DISTAFF)12-4
$26
Daily Double
(JF/DISTAFF)12-2
(JF/DISTAFF)12-2
$7
Daily Double
14-4
14-4
$27
Daily Double
(JF/DISTAFF)12-3
(JF/DISTAFF)12-3
$6
Superfecta
4-8-11-9
4-8-11-9
$69
Super High Five
4-8-11-9-10
4-8-11-9-10
$4,950
Trifecta
4-8-11
4-8-11
$75
Pick 4
6-1-14-2/3/4
6-1-14-2/3/4
$70
Pick 5
2/3/7-6-1-14-2/3/4
2/3/7-6-1-14-2/3/4
$127
Daily Double
(JFILLY/DISTAFF)12-4
(JFILLY/DISTAFF)12-4
$26
Daily Double
(JF/DISTAFF)12-2
(JF/DISTAFF)12-2
$7
Daily Double
14-4
14-4
$27
Daily Double
(JF/DISTAFF)12-3
(JF/DISTAFF)12-3
$6
Superfecta
4-8-11-9
4-8-11-9
$69
Super High Five
4-8-11-9-10
4-8-11-9-10
$4,950
Trifecta
4-8-11
4-8-11
$75
