In every Breeders’ Cup World Championships, there are one or two races with what appears, on paper, to be a “mortal lock” favorite. Even in races that usually draw the most competitive fields in any calendar year, there’s usually a standout somewhere – a horse that, based on his or her accomplishments, towers over the competition.
Last year, of course, the lock was Flightline in the Longines Classic. In 2018, it was Enable in the Longines Turf.
Most of the time, the standout favorite lives up to billing and wins – but not always, of course, because anything can happen in horse racing. Furthermore, handicapping Breeders’ Cup races involving 2-year-old horses requires detailed analysis plus a leap of faith to a certain degree when assessing heavy favorites and potential longshot winners.
On the one hand, many dominant juveniles mature faster and fuller than their competition, and by November of their debut season on the track they’re simply several races ahead of the rest, making them worthy favorites. But conversely, there’s always the chance that one or two less heralded contenders make that leap in development at just the right time for the Breeders’ Cup, putting it all together on the track and pulling off the upset. (One recent example: 11.50-1 Good Magic winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 2017 at Del Mar as a maiden over 7-10 favorite and third-place finisher Bolt d’Oro.)
This year’s NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies is without a doubt one of those “prohibitive favorite” World Championships races for 2023. Tamara (#7), trained by Richard Mandella, comes in with a 2-for-2 record, having won twice at Del Mar by a combined margin of nine lengths. Both of those races came around one turn, a 6 ½-furlong maiden and then the seven-furlong FanDuel Racing Del Mar Debutante Stakes, and she overcame unfavorable starts in each of them. In the Del Mar Debutante especially, Tamara showed the maturity and physical prowess of an older horse in just career start number two, sitting just off of the pacesetter, taking over at will entering the turn, and then cruising home in the stretch with only a few light shakes of the reins by jockey Mike Smith.
In addition to her visually impressive wins, Tamara, by the aforementioned Bolt d’Oro, might have the best pedigree possible for a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies contender as she prepares for her first time racing 1 1/16 miles around two turns Friday at Santa Anita Park. Her dam is the Hall of Fame mare Beholder, who won the 2012 Juvenile Fillies, the 2013 Breeders’ Cup Distaff, and finally the 2016 Distaff in the final start of a legendary career. Tamara belongs to one of the best female families in contemporary horse racing, as leading sire Into Mischief and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner and good young sire Mendelssohn are half-siblings to Beholder.
So with all of that said, is Tamara a “mortal lock” to win the BC Juvenile Fillies? Of course not, see above: anything can happen in horse racing. Still, it’s hard to see her finishing out of the top three unless something unexpected happens during the race. That means the best strategy to turn a profit in the Juvenile Fillies is to find two or three runners to box with Tamara in a trifecta box bet, which requires the bettor to pick the top three finishers in any order. Using four fillies total in a trifecta box allows for a bit of imprecision in case one of the four does not run well.
Limited to a $30 bankroll, I’ll start by crafting a $1 trifecta box with Tamara and three other fillies, totaling $24. Those other options are: Just F Y I (#12), winner of the one-turn mile Frizette Stakes in New York; Life Talk (#11), third in the Frizette; and California-based maiden winner Esprit Enchante (#8). Just F Y I, rated at 8-1 odds on the morning line for the Juvenile Fillies, and Life Talk earned low speed figures in the Frizette, but that race was held on a sloppy track at Aqueduct and the fillies each had impressive wins at Saratoga in their prior starts. They both possess good distance pedigrees, too. Life Talk is especially intriguing at morning-line odds of 20-1.
Same goes for the other 20-1 longshot in this group, Esprit Enchante. This filly comes in off of a rallying nose win in a 6 ½-furlong maiden race at Santa Anita on Oct. 1, which means that like Tamara, she’ll be stretching out for the first time Friday. But she’s by elite distance sire Tapit and is out of Enchanted Ghost, by Ghostzapper, who won a stakes race at 1 1/16 miles in Maryland and is a half-sister to a filly that twice won graded stakes on turf at a mile or longer.
Tamara, who has morning-line odds of 4-5, will probably go off at odds in the range of 2-5 when the gates open for the Juvenile Fillies, so with the remaining $6 dollars in my budget I’ll key her on top of a $1 trifecta using the aforementioned three other fillies underneath. Unlike a trifecta box, in this bet Tamara must finish first, while two of the remaining three contenders have to finish either second or third. If Tamara indeed wins and two among Just F Y I, Life Talk, and Esprit Enchante finish in the second and third slots, I’ll cash out a $2 trifecta.
If, on the other hand, Tamara finishes second or third and two of the other fillies I use also hit the board, a nice payout should be in the offing for a $1 trifecta bet. Looking back to the 2017 Juvenile, when Good Magic won, 9.80-1 Solomini finished second, and odds-on Bolt d’Oro checked in third, the $1 trifecta paid a shade under $230.
What to say at the betting window or enter in your ADW (advance deposit wagering account):
Santa Anita Park, race 6, $1 trifecta box 7,8,11,12 ($24)
Santa Anita Park, race 6, $1 trifecta, key 7 over 8,11,12 over 8,11,12 ($6)
Pick 3
11-4-12
11-4-12
$83
Daily Double
4-12
4-12
$63
Superfecta
12-2-1-11
12-2-1-11
$305
Super High Five
12-2-1-11-3
12-2-1-11-3
$39,680
Trifecta
12-2-1
12-2-1
$201
Pick 3
11-4-12
11-4-12
$83
Daily Double
4-12
4-12
$63
Superfecta
12-2-1-11
12-2-1-11
$305
Super High Five
12-2-1-11-3
12-2-1-11-3
$39,680
Trifecta
12-2-1
12-2-1
$201
