The $350,000, Grade 2 Elkhorn Stakes Saturday at Keeneland brings together a field of 10 horses which for the most part specialize in turf “marathons” of a mile and a half or thereabouts.
Leading the field in terms of making a career at these distances on grass is Channel Maker, who has banked more than $3.7 million while winning nine times in a fantastic 50-race career. That being said, Channel Maker hasn’t won since July 2022.Horses with more recent success in similar races are Value Engineering and Red Knight, both trained by Mike Maker. Value Engineering won the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida Stakes when last seen in March, while Red Knight captured the Grade 3 William L. McKnight Stakes Presented by Davidoff Cigars near the end of January. Highest Honors finished fourth in the Mac Diarmida and although he won the Curlin Stakes early in his career (in 2019), he has never won a graded stakes. Rising Empire got close to a win at this level when leading from the start and coming up a half-length short of victory last month in the Grade 2 Muniz Memorial Classic Stakes Presented by Horse Racing Nation, in which Another Mystery was fourth. Verstappen finished second in the Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes on Turfway Park’s all-weather track last month and hopes to transfer that form to the grass. Tiz the Bomb is winless in six races going back a year since a victory in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks on Turfway’s all-weather track in March, 2022. Shawdyshawdyshawdy earned his last win in October, on dirt, and has never been competitive in three stakes tries to date. Howe Street enters the Elkhorn off a win in an allowance race and may be in too deep to be competitive.
Top Contenders:
Trainer Mike Maker has become well-known the past few years for winning these kinds of long turf races, and he brings two horses into this year’s Elkhorn Stakes which can add to his success. We’ll start with Value Engineering, who had only run at the 1 3/8-mile distance or longer two times in 15 starts before he joined the Maker barn this past December via a private sale to current owner Michael Hui. In his first start for Maker last December, Value Engineering won the 1 5/8-mile H. Allen Jerkens Handicap easily in a field of nine. That race was scheduled to be run on turf but instead was run on the all-weather track at Gulfstream Park, but Value Engineering got his chance to run on turf one month later in the William L. McKnight Stakes, where he made a visually impressive mid-race rally from seventh to lead in the middle of the race, only to be run down late by his stablemate Red Knight, settling for second in the end by a length. A different outcome awaited Value Engineering last month in the Mac Diarmida Stakes, which he won fairly easily in a field of 12. Both of his recent efforts earned very strong and very consistent 112 Equibase Speed Figures and a repeat of either gives this 7-year-old a big shot at winning his second straight graded stakes.
Red Knight has a similar story to Value Engineering as he had raced 27 times, winning eight of those races, before joining the Maker barn last July. He immediately won the Colonial Cup Stakes at the same 1 ½-mile distance of the Elkhorn, earning a 108 Figure in the process. In his next start, last September in the $1 million Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes, Red Knight proved resilient when battling head and head for the last eighth of a mile to win by a nose in the end, bettering his effort to a then career-best 112 figure. After a much better-than-looked effort in the Sycamore Stakes at Keeneland when eighth but beaten just over one length for the win, Red Knight found the competition in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf much too tough and checked in 11th. Given nearly three months off, Red Knight returned to top form with a new best 113 figure when winning the William L. McKnight Stakes, beating stablemate Value Engineering by a length. Having now won three of five since joining the Maker barn and also sporting a win at Keeneland in the similar Sycamore Stakes back in 2020, Red Knight is just as probable to win as his stablemate Value Engineering and that’s why trainer Mike Maker appears to have a pair of aces coming into the race.
Honorable mention goes to another pair of horses possibly just a cut below the top two. Another Mystery finished second in last year’s Elkhorn with a 112 figure that is competitive with the top pair, and he nearly won the similar John B. Connally Turf Cup Stakes in January when leading late and settling for second by three-quarters of a length. Similarly, Verstappen has run three very competitive races in a row, winning two and finishing second in the other. That runner-up effort earned him a career-best 109 figure when a couple of lengths shy of winning the Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes last month. As a horse who has only raced 11 times and a 4-year-old with improving to do, Verstappen may be competitive in this situation.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Channel Maker (112), Howe Street (91). Highest Honors (111), Rising Empire (102), Shawdyshawdyshawdy (111) and Tiz the Bomb (110).
Win Contenders:
Value Engineering
Red Knight
For consideration on exacta and trifecta tickets for second and third place:
Another Mystery
Verstappen
Daily Double
1-9
1-9
$204
Consolation Pick 3
7-1-8
7-1-8
$47
Consolation Pick 3
7-5-8
7-5-8
$2
Consolation Pick 3
7-5-9
7-5-9
$39
Superfecta
9-5-4-1
9-5-4-1
$519
Trifecta
9-5-4
9-5-4
$520
Consolation Double
1-8
1-8
$16
Daily Double
1-9
1-9
$204
Consolation Pick 3
7-1-8
7-1-8
$47
Consolation Pick 3
7-5-8
7-5-8
$2
Consolation Pick 3
7-5-9
7-5-9
$39
Superfecta
9-5-4-1
9-5-4-1
$519
Trifecta
9-5-4
9-5-4
$520
Consolation Double
1-8
1-8
$16
