The Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve wrapped up last Saturday, and you know what that means. The 149th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs is just 2 1/2 lengths, er weeks, away, and we’re ready to decipher some deep data to find the next  run for the roses winner.

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The Kentucky Derby is a handicapping challenge unlike any other. It’s the only race in North America where bettors must choose between 20 lightly raced 3-year-old Thoroughbreds racing 1 1/4 miles, a distance few (if any) will have tackled in the past.

Thanks to the large field size and unpredictable nature of the horses involved, the Kentucky Derby annually ranks among the best betting races of the year, so handicappers understandably spend an inordinate amount of time analyzing the contenders. Race replays, speed figures, and workouts all receive their share of attention, but less obvious data points come into play as well. One factor many handicappers choose to emphasize is how fast each Derby contender ran the last three-eighths of a mile of their final prep race, which usually (but not always) takes place at 1 1/8 miles.

Analyzing these fractional times has become a popular tool for handicapping the Kentucky Derby, and for a good reason. Horses who finish strongly at the end of their final prep race are more likely to handle the Kentucky Derby distance than horses who tired at the end of their final prep.

Longtime turf writer Jennie Rees — an inductee in the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame’s Joe Hirsch Media Roll of Honor — was the first to popularize this approach to handicapping the Derby, outlining the standard by which fast finishes are judged.

Rees noted a strong finish entails sprinting the final three-eighths of a mile in 38 seconds or less and the final eighth of a mile in 13 seconds or less. However, the final three-eighths fraction alone has been a terrific indicator of a win-worthy Kentucky Derby contender. Year after year, the :38-or-less rule has proved effective for identifying horses with a chance to prevail at Churchill Downs, with nine of the last 11 Kentucky Derby winners (and 19 of the last 25) finishing the final three furlongs of their final prep race in less than 38 seconds.

*Please note: Although Medina Spirit was disqualified from his Kentucky Derby victory due to a positive post-race drug test, he was the winner for betting purposes. Since Medina Spirit is the horse bettors had to find to cash Kentucky Derby wagers, we have included Medina Spirit’s data accordingly.

Of course, finishing fractions can be affected by a variety of factors, including the speed of the racetrack and the early pace of the race — it’s easier to finish fast if you’ve gone very slow early on. But when you have a statistic that applies to 19 of the last 25 Derby winners (with two others missing the :38-or-less cutoff by 0.16 or less), you don’t ask too many questions.

So, let’s get started! Below is a chart listing the finishing times for the 2023 Kentucky Derby contenders, ranked in order of how fast they sprinted the final three-eighths of a mile of their final prep. Before diving into the data, here are a few things to keep in mind:

1. For the Rebel Stakes, Arkansas Derby, Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa, Jeff Ruby Steaks, RUNHAPPY Santa Anita Derby, Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino, and Stonestreet Lexington Stakes, we have used data from Equibase GPS charts to determine the listed times. Unlike traditional timers, which only record the fraction posted by the leader at each point in a race, the GPS charts provide individual times for every horse in the field.
2. There aren’t GPS charts for the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby and Sunland Park Derby, so we have used the basic times from the standard charts coupled with the estimation that six lengths is equal to one second. In other words, if a horse finishes six lengths behind the winner of a race, that horse is deemed to have run one second slower than the winner.
3. Finishing fractions for the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby have been calculating by hand-timing the video replay of the race.
4. Finishing fractions for the 1 1/16-mile Lexington and the 1 1/16-mile Rebel Stakes have been projected using the GPS chart to estimate how fast the horses might have run an additional sixteenth of a mile.
5. Times for the UAE Derby have been drawn from data posted by the horse racing timing company Total Performance Data on their Twitter account (https://twitter.com/TPDZone/status/1641789538770071554/). Since the UAE Derby is held over 1,900 meters (a bit shorter than 1 3/16 miles), the raw times based on metric distances have been converted to projected times based on yards, to bring them in line with the rest of our data.

The data this year presents an interesting handicapping quandary. The top two finishing fractions belong to Kingsbarns (36.51) and Disarm (36.55), the top two finishers from the Louisiana Derby. But the Louisiana Derby featured an extremely slow early pace; Kingsbarns led at every call and ran the opening three-quarters of a mile in a pedestrian 1:14.69, making it easier for him (and the other Louisiana Derby starters) to finish fast.

You may have noticed we’ve listed Disarm on our list twice. That’s because after he started in the Louisiana Derby, he came back to finish third in the Lexington Stakes, which unfolded with a quicker opening three-quarters of a mile in 1:12.48. The Lexington took place over 1 1/16 miles, but had Disarm run an extra sixteenth of a mile, we estimate he would have finished up in :38.16 and :12.78 — a bit slower than the sub-:38 cutoff. Since we’re focusing on how fast each horse ran in their final Kentucky Derby prep race, the Lexington technically places Disarm outside our cutoff line.

Angel of Empire (Eclipse Sportswire)

Beyond the Louisiana Derby, Angel of Empire made a strong impression in the Arkansas Derby, dashing home in :36.86 to dominate by 4 1/4 lengths. That is a legitimately fast closing fraction given that the early splits were :23.27, :47.26, and 1:12.24 — respectable, if not blazing.

The fact the top four finishers from the Arkansas Derby all came home in less than 38 seconds does hint that the race may have unfolded in a manner conducive to producing fast finishing fractions; something similar happened in 2018, when the Arkansas Derby produced the three fastest-finishing Kentucky Derby contenders, none of whom factored in the run for the roses. But we’ll try not to overanalyze Angel of Empire’s impressive closing clocking, because :36.86 off six furlongs in 1:12.24 is fast no matter how you slice it.

Two Phil’s likewise posted a strong fraction in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, sprinting the final three-eighths of a mile in 36.93 seconds, but that effort took place on the synthetic Tapeta Footings surface at Turfway Park. It remains to be seen whether Two Phil’s can replicate that strong finish on dirt, though it should be noted Rich Strike finished the 2022 Jeff Ruby in :36.89 prior to his upset the Kentucky Derby at odds of 80.80-1.

This brings us to Practical Move (:37.43), Mandarin Hero (:37.12), and Skinner (:37.34), the top three finishers from a fast renewal of the Santa Anita Derby. All three came home strongly, with Mandarin Hero in particular unleashing a sharp turn of foot for the final three-eighths of a mile. The winning time of 1:48.69 posted by Practical Move ranks as the fastest 1 1/8-mile clocking in our sample. All told, we have to view the Santa Anita Derby in a positive light.

Another impressive finisher was Derma Sotogake, whose converted closing fraction of :37.52 from the UAE Derby is especially noteworthy coming at the end of 1 3/16 miles rather than 1 1/8 miles. The Japanese-bred colt has early speed and carved out a fast pace from start to finish in the UAE Derby, so he looms as a formidable front-end danger in the Kentucky Derby.

On the other end of the spectrum, Wood Memorial winner Lord Miles just barely qualifies with a closing fraction of :37.98. The Wood Memorial produced a three-horse photo finish for top honors, and Hit Show — the runner-up by a nose — came home a bit slower than Lord Miles with a final three-eighths in :38.11, outside the qualifying cutoff.

Similarly, Forte is the Kentucky Derby favorite after unleashing a big late run to win the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, but his closing fraction of :37.88 ranks on the slower side. His stretch rally was aided by the fact runner-up Mage and third-place finisher Cyclone Mischief were tiring through the final three-eighths of a mile, coming home outside the cutoff mark in :38.17 and :38.50, respectively.

There’s nuance to our takeaways, and it’s worth reiterating that any horse who finished in under :38 seconds has the historical credentials to vie for a Kentucky Derby victory. But after digging deeper into the data, we have to highlight Angel of Empire, Practical Move, Mandarin Hero, Skinner, and Derma Sotogake as particularly appealing contenders.

Good luck with your Kentucky Derby handicapping!