Betting the Royal North Stakes on a Budget

Gambling
Six-time stakes winner Summer Sunday bids for a repeat score in the Royal North Stakes Saturday at Woodbine. (Michael Burns/Woodbine)

Summer Sunday has won six stakes in her career, including the 2019 Grade 2 Royal North Stakes in her first try on grass, but she has not made another start on the turf in three subsequent races. That will change Saturday when she tries for a repeat victory in this year's $175,000 Royal North at Woodbine for trainer Stuart Simon.

The second choice on the morning line at 3-1 odds, Summer Sunday (#3) has been a very consistent racemare throughout her career with seven wins and nine top-three finishes in 12 lifetime starts. She’s been in the top three in five of her last six with the only unplaced finish a fourth, beaten by three lengths, in a Grade 3 race last October on the Tapeta Footings all-weather surface at Woodbine.

I’m eager to see her return to the grass for the 2020 Royal North as she ran a terrific race in this spot in 2019, defeating among others Oleksandra, who has won three stakes since including the Grade 1 Jaipur Stakes Presented by America's Best Racing June 20 at Belmont Park.

While somewhat surprising that Summer Sunday has not raced on grass since last year’s Royal North, I believe in her talent and value her consistency so I plan to use her in my betting plan along with a couple of longshots while trying to beat 5-2 morning-line favorite Another Time (#4).

Another Time profiles as a win candidate in this race for a trainer I really respect in Barbara Minshall, who I find places her runners in spots where they are almost always competitive.

The reason I’m going to try to beat Another Time is the pace shape of the Royal North. She prefers to run on or near the lead in a race with quite a few similar runners, and cutting back in distance from a mile to a sprint I’m worried she might be forced a bit farther back early and out of her comfort zone.

Bohemian Bourbon (Coady Photography)

To try and fill out the exacta, I’ll look for a couple of prices as I did a week ago when Admiralty Pier (8.35-1) and Blind Ambition (5.20-1) filled out the trifecta in the Grade 2 Connaught Cup Stakes under heavily favored Silent Poet.

I’m going to target a couple of closers given the potential for a contested pace I outlined above and swing away with Bohemian Bourbon (#2) at 15-1 on the morning line and Eyeinthesky (#6) at 20-1.

Bohemian Bourbon has not been great in two races this year, but when looking for a longshot you have to overlook some blemishes. Her most recent start is a toss for me as it came on a sloppy main track, and the Midshipman filly got off to a poor start in her 2020 debut and made up a few lengths in the stretch but wasn’t really a factor.

I think she can improve here and get back to her 2019 form that featured a stakes placing at Saratoga Race Course and three wins from off the pace, including a nice victory at Kentucky Downs. Bohemian Bourbon should get some pace to set up her finishing kick.

Eyeinthesky is another who becomes more dangerous with the right pace setup. I like that she is cutting back here to a sprint distance for Mark Casse, who does well with this move and pairs well with jockey Patrick Husbands. In 22 stakes starts since 2019, Casse and Husbands have five wins and 12 top-three finishes. Eyeinthesky ran a very good race in February when third despite late trouble in the Mardi Gras Stakes at Fair Grounds and she showed an impressive late turn of foot when winning the Galway Stakes last summer at Saratoga.

Exacta Strategy on a $20 Budget

$5 exacta 3 with 2,6 ($10)

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, ninth race, $5 exacta 3 with 2,6

$3 exacta 2,6 with 3 ($6)

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, ninth race, $3 exacta 2,6 with 3

$2 exacta box: 2,6 ($4)

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, ninth race, $2 exacta box 2,6

Trifecta Strategy on a $30 Budget

$10 trifecta 3 with 2,6 with 2,6 ($20)

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, ninth race, $10 trifecta 3 with 2,6 with 2,6

$5 trifecta 2,6 with 3 with 2,6 ($10)

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, ninth race, $5 trifecta 2,6 with 3 with 2,6

2020 Royal North S.
July 18th, 2020

Winning Time: 1:06.90
  • Purse: $175,000
  • Distance: 6 Furlongs
  • Age: 3 yo's & up
  • Surface: Turf
  • Winning Time: 1:06.90
Results
Win
Place
Show
1st
8 Lady Grace
$14.80
$7.20
$4.70
  • Owner / Tracy Farmer
  • Breeder / William C. Schettine & William B. Haines
2nd
6 Eyeinthesky
$9.20
$6.20
3rd
2 Bohemian Bourbon
$5.90
4th
9 Charmaine's Mia
5th
5 Sister Peacock
6th
1 Foxxy Belle
7th
3 Summer Sunday
8th
7 Gamble's Candy
Scratches
Payoff
Pick 3
3-1-8
3-1-8
$27
Daily Double
1-8
1-8
$22
Exacta
8-6
8-6
$66
Superfecta
8-6-2-9
8-6-2-9
$642
Trifecta
8-6-2
8-6-2
$86
Payoff
Pick 3
3-1-8
3-1-8
$27
Daily Double
1-8
1-8
$22
Exacta
8-6
8-6
$66
Superfecta
8-6-2-9
8-6-2-9
$642
Trifecta
8-6-2
8-6-2
$86

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