This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2026 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not as strong as they previously were. In the fifth edition of this blog for the 2026 run for the roses, the focus is on what has changed since the previous edition on March 3.

HEATING UP

Eclipse Sportswire

1. Incredibolt

Another week, another close call for the top spot. I went with Incredibolt over The Puma for two reasons. First, his four-length Virginia Derby Presented by New Kent County win March 14 at Colonial Downs was a sharp reversal in form from a last of six (beaten by 25+ lengths) in the Holy Bull Stakes in January. Second, I like his chances slightly better to hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. He’s 2-for-2 at Churchill Downs with a terrific win as a 2-year-old in the Street Sense Stakes, and he earned a new career-top Equibase (95) and Beyer Speed Figure (88) for the Virginia Derby. On the other hand, he’s not fast enough on paper yet to compete with the best of the division. And if you just toss the Holy Bull and assume Incredibolt got little to nothing out of that race, it’s fair to be skeptical that he can be ready for the Derby off essentially a single one-turn prep race. It’s really a tough evaluation for me because Incredibolt has now finished exceptionally strong in two stakes with his final quarter-mile in :23.97 in the Virginia Derby just flat-out spectacular. I really want to believe ...

Eclipse Sportswire

2. The Puma

After placing in his first two starts, including a third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, The Puma broke through with his first career win in the $350,000 ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby March 7 at Tampa Bay Downs. He won by three-quarters of a length despite a very wide trip throughout and finished well with a final eighth of a mile in :13.10. Like Incredibolt, The Puma earned a career-best 95 Equibase Speed Figure and 89 Beyer Speed Figure, so he’s trending in the right direction but still has some real estate to make up on the best of the 3-year-old male division. His pedigree suggests The Puma should continue to excel with longer distances for trainer Gustavo Delgado, who won the Kentucky Derby in 2023 with Mage, and with only three starts to date there is room for improvement with experience. The tentative plan seems to be for him to have one more prep race with the $1 million Curlin Florida Derby March 28 at Gulfstream Park and the $1.25 million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes April 4 at Keeneland among the options.

BENOIT photo

3. Potente

Several of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s promising 3-year-olds have not delivered this year, but Potente looks like he’s trending in the right direction after closing powerfully to catch Robusta in the final strides of the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes Presented by DK Horse at Santa Anita Park. He improved to 2-for-2 with the win while acing his first major tests – stretching out in distance from six furlongs to 1 1/16 miles and facing stakes competition. The bay colt by leading sire Into Mischief boosted his Beyer Speed Figure 10 points to an 89 and earned a 94 Equibase Speed Figure. What he’s lacking in foundation, he makes up for in potential. His dam (mother) is stakes-placed winner Sweet Sting, by Awesome Again, and his grandam (maternal grandmother) is 2000 champion turf female Perfect Sting. Lack of experience is concerning as was a final quarter-mile in :25.98 in the San Felipe, but there’s reason for optimism.

Also Eligible: We are getting to the time on the racing calendar where it’s tough for maiden and allowance winners to make an impact on the Kentucky Derby, so let’s keep focus of this section on the Derby preps. Canaletto, the half-brother to 2025 Arkansas Derby winner Sandman, made a nice late bid to finish third in the Tampa Baye Derby while beaten by less than a length. It was a solid stakes debut after an eight-length debut win Jan. 25, but he’ll need to bank some more points and quick with 15 total. ... Tampa Bay Derby runner-up Further Ado ran well enough in his return from a three-month layoff that he still warrants mention as a legitimate Derby contender. He was caught late by The Puma and should improve in his second start back. ... Robusta nearly pulled off a 67.30-1 stunner in the San Felipe Stakes before Potente reeled him in near the finish line. It was a big improvement from a sixth-place finish in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes but he also has work to do with 25 Derby qualifying points.

COOLING DOWN

Click image to purchase shirt.

1. Brant

Last year’s Del Mar Futurity winner and third-place finisher in the FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance, Brant returned from a layoff of more than four months as the 4-5 favorite in the San Felipe Stakes Presented by DK Horse. The Gun Runner colt set a pressured pace through a half-mile in :46.62 but faded badly late and finished fifth of seven, beaten by 6 ¾ lengths by stablemate Potente. It’s safe to surmise that Brant needed a race after the extended time away, but the 83 Equibase Speed Figure was the lowest of his career and we’re at a point on the Derby trail where any setback is significant. This was an inauspicious season debut for one of the leading Kentucky Derby contenders entering the year.

Click image to purchase shirt.

2. Buetane

After a debut win last August at Del Mar, Buetane has made four straight starts in stakes races. He’s never finished worse than fourth while amassing a trio of graded stakes-placings and 16 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. Yet he’s also failed to distinguish himself as the closest he’s come to winning was a runner-up finish by two lengths in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes Jan. 10 at Santa Anita. He was beaten by 3 ¼ lengths in the Southwest Stakes Feb. 6 at Oaklawn Park and last weekend finished 6 ½ lengths behind Incredibolt when fourth as the 3-2 favorite in the Virginia Derby Presented by New Kent County. His Equibase Speed Figure dipped 11 points to an 86 and he’s now lost four straight, including three times at odds of 3-2 or lower. The $1.15 million purchase as a 2-year-old clearly has ability, but Buetane must show more to be a Kentucky Derby contender.

BENOIT photo

3. So Happy

I thought So Happy actually ran quite well in defeat after pressing a solid pace in the San Felipe Stakes Presented by DK Horse. The Runhappy colt was stretching out in distance around two turns for the first time after winning the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes and battled through the stretch before giving way late in a third-place finish. I think he was the best horse in the race, but he’s probably best-suited to one-turn races. His Equibase Speed Figure declined from a 100 for the San Vicente to a 90 for the San Felipe. I believe in So Happy and think his future is bright, but 1 ¼ miles in the Kentucky Derby is a tall task.