This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2026 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not quite as strong as they previously were.

In the first edition of this blog for the 2026 run for the roses, the focus is on what has changed since the start of the new year.

HEATING UP

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1. Strategic Risk

Strategic Risk has some work to do in terms of improving his speed figures, but I really liked what I saw in his 4 ½-length victory in the $250,000 Smarty Jones Stakes Jan. 3 at Oaklawn Park. He completed his final quarter-mile in an eye-catching :23.78, which is impressive finishing speed for a 3-year-old racing around two turns in January. That followed a breakout nine-length romp in the 1 1/16-mile FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality Stakes Nov. 29, 2025, at Gulfstream Park for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse. You won’t find a Noble Bird colt out of an Afleet Alex mare on any fashionable pedigree lists, but his bloodlines indicate stamina should be no issue. Noble Bird’s four stakes wins came at distances from 1 1/8 miles to 1 3/16 miles and Strategic Risk hails from the family that produced champions Inside Information and Smuggler as well as Grade 1 winner Educated Risk. That helps explain why he was doing his best running late in the Smarty Jones. Next up is the $1 million Southwest Stakes Jan. 31 at Oaklawn.

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2. So Happy

It’s reasonable to be skeptical about So Happy’s chances to continue to excel as the races get longer on the Kentucky Derby trail. His sire, Runhappy, is a champion sprinter and he has yet to compete in a race longer than seven-eighths of a mile. But his two starts to date have been really good. He defeated nine horses in a three-quarter-length debut win Nov. 22 at Del Mar and then rallied from last of five — not noted in the chart but he was last briefly on the backstretch — to win the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes by two lengths Jan. 10 at Santa Anita Park. Trained by Mark Glatt, So Happy delivered a professional effort under Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith in his second start. He responded when asked to accelerate, switched leads on cue at the top of the stretch, and had plenty of fuel in reserve to put away odds-on favorite Buetane in the stretch. He earned a 106 Equibase Speed Figure, 96 Beyer Speed Figure and a 9 (lower is better) on the Ragozin Sheets for the San Vicente. So Happy’s dam (mother), So Cunning, is by 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Blame and won a pair of sprints impressively before an unplaced finish at one mile in her final race. So Happy’s grandam (maternal grandmother), So Glitzy, won three starts at distances from a mile to 1 1/8 miles and was Grade 3-placed at 1 1/8 miles. So Happy might be up to the distance challenge.

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3. Nearly

Nearly followed a runaway 9 ¼-length maiden win for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher by imposing his will by five lengths on three opponents Jan. 2 at Gulfstream Park in a seven-furlong allowance-optional claiming race. It’s fair to wonder who he beat in that short field and he’s yet to compete in anything other than sprint races, but the Not This Time colt appears to be improving with each start and earned a 95 Equibase Speed Figure, 96 Beyer Speed Figure and 7 ½ on the Ragozin Sheet for his most recent win, so the numbers back up the eye test. His dam (mother) Ib Prospecting, by 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft, was a sprinter but Nearly is by a very good sire from a family with some class and stamina when you dig a little deeper.

Also eligible: Chief Wallabee was the last man out here, running neck and neck with Nearly for the third and final slot. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott’s Constitution colt won his career debut by 1 ½ lengths at seven-eighths of a mile Jan. 10 at Gulfstream Park and the speed figures were strong: 98 Equibase, 88 Beyer, 8 ½ Ragozin. He’s one to watch. … Brad Cox-trained stakes winners Commandment (Mucho Macho Man Stakes, Jan. 3 at Gulfstream) and My World (Jerome Stakes, Jan. 3 at Aqueduct) warranted strong consideration for a spot in the top three but speed figures for both came back a bit light. … Likewise, I love Lecomte Stakes winner Golden Tempo’s pedigree and he overcame a speed bias in rallying to win by three-quarters of a length Jan. 17 at Fair Grounds, but it just wasn’t a fast race. … It’s also worth mentioning trainer Todd Pletcher’s Jackson Hole, a $1.3 million purchase as a yearling, improved to 2-for-2 with a front-running 5 ½-length score at 1 1/16 miles Jan. 17 at Fair Grounds.

COOLING DOWN

Adam Coglianese/NYRA

1. Universe

Universe finished third in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes and second in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes as a 2-year-old and entered 2026 with reason for optimism. In his first start of the year in the Jan. 3 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park, the Global Campaign colt did not meet expectations with a nonthreatening seventh-place finish, beaten by 11 ¼ lengths by winner Strategic Risk. The 74 Equibase Speed Figure Universe earned in the Smarty Jones was the worst of his five-race career to date. He’ll need an improved effort in his next start for trainer Kenny McPeek.

2. Crown the Buckeye

A two-time stakes winner at age 2, Crown the Buckeye was third and beaten by only three-quarters of a length in the Gun Runner Stakes Dec. 20 at Fair Grounds in his final start of 2025. He closed his juvenile campaign with two wins, one second, and a third in four races. The Ohio-bred’s first try in a graded stakes proved too challenging a test. He pressed the pace but faded late when running eighth, beaten by 8 ½ lengths by Golden Tempo on a track that was favoring speed, in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes Jan. 17 at Fair Grounds. He is a talented racehorse who might have been a little outclassed at the graded-stakes level.

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3. Chip Honcho

Gun Runner Stakes winner Chip Honcho was unable to capitalize on a fairly easy pace in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes Jan. 17 at Fair Grounds, where he pressed the pace from the outside before launching his bid near the top of the stretch. Jockey Paco Lopez appeared confident, looking under his arm to check for competition, but he could not get past determined pacesetter Carson Street and eventually also gave way to deep closers Mesquite (the runner-up) and winner Golden Tempo. Running fourth, beaten by 1 ¾ lengths, was far from a disastrous outing but he was unable to overtake Carson Street in the stretch in a race where the top finishers were not exactly blazing through the stretch. Perhaps this will be a race he can learn from …

Of note: Epic Summer flashed ability in an impressive career debut Oct. 26 at Belmont at the Big A, pulling clear by 3 ¼ lengths after setting a pressured pace. His first foray against stakes competition indicated that he might need more experience. Epic Summer took a brief lead approaching the stretch before tiring and fading to fifth, beaten by 13 ¾ lengths, in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes Jan. 3 at Gulfstream Park.