Welcome to Kentucky Derby Prospect Profiles, where we take a look each week at a recent winner on the Road to the Derby schedule that offers qualifying points for the 1 ¼-mile classic race May 3, 2025, at Churchill Downs.

This week, we take a closer look at American Promise, a 7 ¾-length winner of the $527,500 Virginia Derby March 15 at Colonial Downs. The chestnut colt earned 50 points toward qualifying for the 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and ranks fifth on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 55 points in total.

Racing Résumé: American Promise entered the Virginia Derby with only one win in eight starts and a couple of additional top-three finishes in maiden races to his credit. His two previous tries against stakes competition resulted in a pair of well-beaten unplaced finishes in the $1 million Southwest Stakes Jan. 25 at Oaklawn Park and the $500,000 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes Feb. 15 at Fair Grounds.

American Promise’s breakthrough came in the one-turn, 1 1/8-mile Virginia Derby in which he tracked pacesetter Getaway Car from second and moved up to challenge entering the turn in a duel that was striking because of how much bigger a racehorse he was than Getaway Car. Bigger is not always better, of course, but in this race the strapping American Promise proved much the best. He dispatched Getaway Car to take command through a lightning fast three-quarters of a mile in 1:08.39 and extended his advantage to 7 ¾ lengths at the finish line while setting a new track record for 1 1/8 miles in 1:46.41, almost a full second faster than the previous record of 1:47.36 set by McCain on Aug. 18, 2021.

Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, a four-time Kentucky Derby winner, explained American Promise’s improvement: “This is a typical case of a horse that was in a growth spurt like he is, big and rangy. He didn’t actually know what was expected, like a big, rangy kid. But the last 30 days, he has really come around and I expect him to get better the next 30 days.”

Speed Figures: American Promise earned a career-best 102 Equibase Speed Figure and 95 Beyer Speed Figure for his maiden win Dec. 29, 2024, on a muddy track at Oaklawn Park. He matched his best Beyer Speed Figure with a 95 for the Virginia Derby and earned a 101 Equibase Speed Figure for his first stakes win.

Running Style: American Promise led from start to finish in his maiden win and showed speed again in the Virginia Derby when racing just behind the pacesetter. He relaxed father back in his two previous stakes attempts, but his best races seem to be when he is up close to the front, so I would expect him to be ridden aggressively early in his races moving forward.

Celebrating in the winner's circle. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Pedigree Notes:  American Promise is by 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, the sire of 2024 European Horse of the Year City of Troy and U.S. champion Just F Y I among seven Grade or Group 1 winners from three crops age 3 and older.

The winning Tapit mare Tapella is the dam (mother) of American Promise as well as Hoosier Philly, who won five stakes including a Grade 2 race and was the runner-up in the 2023 George E. Mitchell Black-Eyed Susan Stakes. American Promise’s grandam (maternal grandmother), Princess Arabella, by Any Given Saturday, won the 2012 Sunland Park Oaks.

Derby Potential: I’ve discussed many times in this blog and other Kentucky Derby features that progress is not linear in racehorses. Sometimes they take time to grow mentally and physically and sometimes the lightbulb goes on and they figure out what is expected of them. I think it might be a combination of those factors with American Promise. He’s a well-bred colt coming off a very fast Derby prep win with a high cruising speed for a Hall of Fame trainer. He did not finish very fast in the Virginia Derby, but given he was a length in front after six furlongs in 1:08.39, I’m not as worried about the final quarter-mile in: 25.75 and final eighth in :13.39. He’s an intriguing prospect with significant upside but lacking consistency. Lukas can either train him up to the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby May 3 or give American Promise one final prep race.

“I don’t know if I’m a good enough trainer to train him from now till the Derby and get a good performance,” Lukas said. “I have a tendency to want to run my horses periodically. They do better for me.”