While people will be saying “Happy New Year!” on Thursday, all Thoroughbreds will be celebrating their birthdays. Horses that were 2 at the start of the week will turn 3 on Thursday and that’s when the talk about the 2026 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve really begins to intensify. On Saturday, the Smarty Jones Stakes from Oaklawn Park will serve as one of the day’s two 3-year-old stakes along with the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct. Both races will offer 10-5-3-2-1 qualifying point allotments for the run for the roses to their top five finishers.

1. Universe (3-1): Finished second in a pair of Churchill Downs graded stakes races at this distance in his last two starts. Gets jockey Joel Rosario and should be a major player from the rail.

JOCKEY: Joel Rosario; TRAINER: Ken McPeek

2. Baytown Dreamer (30-1): Dreaming seems the optimum word for a horse with one win and one second in eight starts on turf and dirt.

JOCKEY: Orlando Bocachica; TRAINER: Paul McEntee

3. Boca Beach Club (4-1) Bred for distance but has yet to race beyond 5 ½ furlongs. The fractions were fast and so were the speed figures, meaning he’ll likely be on or near the lead. Tough to take at the low morning-line odds while racing around two turns for the first time.

JOCKEY: Luis Saez; TRAINER: James DiVito

Rancho Santa Fe. (Coady Media)

4. Silent Tactic (12-1): Races on dirt for the first time after running on an all-weather surface in his first two starts. His works on dirt do not heighten enthusiasm for his chances.

JOCKEY: Jaime Torres; TRAINER: Mark Casse

5. Rancho Santa Fe (5-2): Undefeated after two starts, most recently he captured an allowance race at Keeneland at this distance. Certainly seems capable of stepping up to stakes company and being a main contender.

JOCKEY: Florent Geroux; TRAINER: Brad Cox

6. Oscar’s Hope (8-1): Has never been worse than second in five starts. Stretched out to 7 ½ furlongs and won a Delta Downs stakes race last time out. Has the breeding to handle the added distance and is working nicely for this race.

JOCKEY: Ricardo Santana Jr.; TRAINER: Tom Amoss

7. Strategic Risk (6-1): Romped by nine lengths in a stakes race for Florida-breds last time. That win was a big improvement and he should be in the picture if he takes another step forward.

JOCKEY: Javier Castellano; TRAINER: Mark Casse

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8. Scar Ship (12-1): Has been racing in sprint stakes for Louisiana-breds without a win. This seems a big ask even for a trainer who won Oaklawn’s 2022 Rebel Stakes at 75.40-1 odds with the one-eyed Un Ojo.

JOCKEY: Ramon Vazquez; TRAINER: Ricky Courville

9. Sleepingonfreedom (5-1): Has showed steady improvement in his three starts and could be a threat in his stakes debut if that trend continues. The outside post doesn’t help his chances.

JOCKEY: Brian J. Hernandez Jr.; TRAINER: Ken McPeek

THE PICK: Rancho Santa Fe

LIVE LONGSHOT: Oscar’s Hope

SUPERFECTA: 5-1-6-7