The first Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve qualifier of 2026 is Saturday’s $150,000 Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct, which will be followed by the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park later that afternoon. The one-mile Jerome has drawn only five entries, yet the field looks highly competitive on paper.

Our top choice is #4 Balboa. He’s the only entrant with experience competing against graded stakes competition. Tackling an ungraded stakes like the Jerome should help Balboa visit the winner’s circle.

Balboa (Jeffrey Snyder/Maryland Jockey Club)

Balboa was last seen Dec. 6 contesting the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes, an important Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier at Aqueduct. In that race, he pressed a quick pace in second place and took over the lead at one point before weakening to finish third. He crossed the wire only 3 ½ lengths behind Paladin, a highly regarded Kentucky Derby prospect ranked #2 in America’s Best Racing’s final 2025 Rookie Rankings.

The Remsen took place over 1 1/8 miles around two turns, which might be a bit farther than Balboa wants to run. He’s shown fine form in sprints, most notably posting a 5 ¼-length win in the James F. Lewis III Stakes dashing three-quarters of a mile at Laurel Park.

The Jerome isn’t a sprint, but its one-mile distance is contested around one turn. One-turn miles can play more like elongated sprints than true route races, so Balboa figures to relish the Jerome configuration and possibly produce his best performance to date.

Beyond Balboa, #3 My World and #1 Enforced Agenda are logical contenders.

My World delivered an impressive victory in the one-mile Nashua Stakes Nov. 1 at Aqueduct. He was always closet to the pace, and in the final furlong he accelerated to draw away from two-time stakes winner Probably Dreaming and win by 3 ½ lengths.

As for Enforced Agenda, he won his debut in a one-mile maiden special weight race Nov. 23 at Aqueduct. He raced a bit greenly down the homestretch, but gradually edged away to win by one length while appearing to have something left in reserve. For the Jerome, he’s picking up jockey Flavien Prat, who earned the Eclipse Award for Outstanding Jockey of 2024.

We suggest betting Balboa on top of exacta and trifecta tickets using My World and Enforced Agenda for second and third place. If we can correctly predict the top three finishers in order, we’ll cash a nice payday.

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$5 exacta: 4 with 1,3 (total cost: $10)

What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, 3^rd race, $5 exacta 4 with 1,3

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$10 exacta: 4 with 1,3 (total cost: $20)

What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, 3^rd race, $10 exacta 4 with 1,3

$5 trifecta: 4 with 1,3 with 1,3 (total cost: $10)

What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, 3^rd race, $5 trifecta 4 with 1,3 with 1,3

Good luck, and enjoy the race!