Breeders’ Cup Fantastic Finishes: A Legendary Streak Halted
From left to right: Baeza, Goal Oriented, and Gosger are three of the leading contenders for the 2025 Pennsylvania Derby Sept. 20 at Parx Racing. (Eclipse Sportswire/Eclipse Sportswire/Ryan Denver/EQUI-PHOTO)
The $1 million Pennsylvania Derby at Parx Racing has become an increasingly important race for 3-year-olds over the last decade with a rich purse and Grade 1 status.
The Pennsylvania Derby serves as a golden opportunity for horses who were on the Triple Crown trail or were later developers that blossomed into stakes runners to secure a Grade 1 victory in a route race restricted to 3-year-olds. After the Pennsylvania Derby, all of the marquee route races in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic division become open to older horses and present a new challenge.
Get ready for a great weekend of racing!
Preakness Stakes victor Seize the Grey scored in the Pennsylvania Derby a year ago and to join an impressive list of winners this century that includes Harlan’s Holiday (2002), Will Take Charge (2013), Bayern (2014), Frosted (2015), West Coast (2017), McKinzie (2018), Hot Rod Charlie (2021), and Saudi Crown (2023).
The 1 1/8-mile dirt race serves as the co-feature of a terrific Parx card that also includes the $1 million, Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes for 3-year-old fillies.
Watch all of the action from Parx on FanDuel TV. Get ready for this weekend's action with the Hot 2 Trot podcast as America's Best Racing's Dan Todjman joins hosts Ashley Eisenbeil and Meadow Twaddle on Friday, Sept. 19 to preview Pennsylvania Day at the Races, Pennsylvania Derby Day, and the Presque Isle Downs Masters Stakes.
Read on for more information on each of the 10 contenders for this year’s Pennsylvania Derby.
Eclipse Sportswire
1. So Sandy (15-1 morning-line odds)
Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche
Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
Owner: Lael Stables
Career record: 7 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $124,821
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 101
Pedigree: Omaha Beach – So Fancy, by Tapit
Color: Bay
Running style: Press the pace
Analysis: So Sandy was well-beaten in each of his first four starts and showed little in those races, but he started to figure things out this spring beginning with a front-running five-length win May 15 at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Fast forward two starts, and So Sandy has emerged as a promising 3-year-old with two wins and a runner-up finish in the 1 1/8-mile Curlin Stakes July 24 at Saratoga Race Course in his last three races. The improvement seems to have coincided with a change in tactics to utilize So Sandy’s early speed to run on or near the pace, and he’s improved in each race since that May breakthrough. It looks like he will have plenty of company vying for early position in the Pennsylvania Derby, however, with many of the contenders preferring to set or press the pace. So Sandy also will need to continue his upward trend and raise his Equibase Speed Figure by at least 10 points to have a shot at a victory. It’s dangerous to dismiss a colt improving with each start and So Sandy could continue his recent streak of outrunning his odds, but this is a challenging spot for his graded stakes debut.
Coady Media
2. Altobelli (50-1)
Jockey: Angel Castillo
Trainer: James E. Nicholson Jr.
Owners: JR Jewel Stables and John J. Stoffere
Career record: 15 starts – 4 win – 0 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $96,787
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 96
Pedigree: Authentic - True Elegance, by Distorted Humor
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Press the pace
Analysis: Altobelli probably will vie with Happily Delusional for the biggest longshot in the Pennsylvania Derby. He has raced 15 times and never competed in a race longer than three-quarters of a mile, so the 1 1/8-mile distance looms a major hurdle. Three of his four wins have come on an all-weather surface, and he will be making his first start in a graded stakes race in this Grade 1, $1 million race. Altobelli’s best Equibase Speed Figure in a dirt race was a 90 in a 4 ½-furlong sprint in November 2024, so he probably would need to run about 25 points faster to reach the winner’s circle. He finished last of six, beaten by 17 ½ lengths after setting the pace in his most recent start going six furlongs Sept. 6 at Delaware Park. Altobelli appears to be outclassed against this talented cast of 3-year-olds.
Eclipse Sportswire
3. Magnitude (6-1)
Jockey: Ben Curtis
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Career record: 9 starts – 4 wins – 1 second – 1 third
Career earnings: $746,165
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 111
Pedigree: Not This Time - Rockadelic, by Bernardini
Color: Bay
Running style: Pacesetter
Analysis: Magnitude looked like a bona-fide Kentucky Derby contender Feb. 15 with a runaway 9 ¾-length romp in the $500,000 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes at 1 1/8 miles. Unfortunately, he subsequently was diagnosed with a bone chip in his left-front ankle and missed the Triple Crown races while recovering from surgery. The Not This Time colt did nothing to diminish his status as a rising star in his return to competition, leading from start to finish in a 9 ¼-length win in the $250,000 Iowa Derby July 5 at Prairie Meadows Racetrack. Magnitude earned a 111 Equibase Speed Figure, a six-point jump from his previous best for the Risen Star. He entered a showdown with dual classic winner Sovereignty as the second betting choice in the DraftKings Travers Stakes. Magnitude faced early pressure while setting the pace in the Travers and faded late while finishing third, beaten by 20 ¾ lengths by Sovereignty. I do not believe we saw the best from Magnitude that day and expect an improved performance, but he very likely will face early pressure against a Pennsylvania Derby field with quite a few runners that prefer to set or press the pace. Magnitude is talented enough to win the race but it must be pointed out that he has not been as effective when unable to control the pace.
Coady Media
4. David of Athens (12-1)
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Owners: Ike and Dawn Thrash
Career record: 3 starts – 2 wins – 0 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $122,655
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 103
Pedigree: Nyquist - Athens Queen, by Majestic Warrior
Color: Bay
Running style: Pacesetter
Analysis: Lightly raced David of Athens impressed in his first try stretching out in distance to a mile July 20 at Ellis Park, setting the pace and pulling away to a 7 ¼-length romp while earning a new career-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure. The bay colt by Nyquist won his career debut in October 2024 at Keeneland and returned from a long layoff for his 3-year-old bow June 21 at Churchill Downs, where he was hampered by a slow start and a wide trip in an unplaced finish. David of Athens has improved his Equibase Speed Figure with each start, has tactical speed, and appeared to relish additional distance, but the Pennsylvania Derby is a huge test for his stakes debut. He would need to improve significantly to have a realistic chance to win the race. If you are looking for an upside play to fill out the trifecta or superfecta at an appealing price, David of Athens could be an intriguing option, but a victory would qualify as a surprise.
5. Happily Delusional (30-1)
Jockey: Paco Lopez
Trainer: Louis C. Linder Jr.
Owner: Bran Jam Stable and David W. Clark
Career record: 11 starts – 1 win – 5 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $112,670
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 87
Pedigree: Flatter – Tattersail, by Twirling Candy
Color: Bay
Running style: Closer
Analysis: Happily Delusional has only one win in 11 starts, has not finished better than fourth in four stakes races, and was beaten by 10 ¼ lengths in his lone previous try in a graded stakes race. Thus, his name could also fit as an apt description of his placement in this race. The Flatter colt enters the Pennsylvania Derby off a fourth-place finish, beaten by 10 ¾ lengths by winner Tip Top Thomas, in the Smarty Jones Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on this track Aug. 19. He would very likely need to improve his Equibase Speed Figure by 20 points to be a contender for a top-three finish and by 25 points to be a real win threat. Stranger things have happened in horse racing, but Happily Delusional is hard to endorse against a strong cast of 3-year-olds in the 2025 Pennsylvania Derby.
Eclipse Sportswire
6. Goal Oriented (5-2)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Career record: 4 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $331,960
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 109
Pedigree: Not This Time – Bizzy Caroline, by Afleet Alex
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Press the pace
Analysis: Goal Oriented was unbeaten in two starts and a buzz horse entering the 2025 Preakness Stakes. The Not This Time colt was in contention in the Pimlico stretch before he got bounced around in traffic and faded to fourth, but he emerged none the worse for wear and ran a big race in his next start. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert shipped him to Monmouth Park for the NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes and Goal Oriented was again in the hunt in deep stretch, finishing third but only three-quarters of a length by winner Journalism. He gets another shot at a Grade 1 win and at Gosger, who finished ahead of him when second in both the Preakness and the Haskell, in the Pennsylvania Derby. With competitive speed figures, only four starts to date, and two months of rest since he last raced, Goal Oriented is eligible to improve and take an incremental step forward, which would make him a viable win candidate for Baffert, who has won this race with Bayern (2014), West Coast (2017), McKinzie (2018), and Taiba (2022). Two-time Pennsylvania Derby winner Irad Ortiz Jr. (Handsome Mike, 2012; Math Wizard, 2019) picks up the mount on Goal Oriented.
Eclipse Sportswire
7. Big Truzz (10-1)
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Brian Lynch
Owner: Flying Dutchmen
Career record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 1 third
Career earnings: $333,555
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 105
Pedigree: Justify – Saralin, by Curlin
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Stalker/press the pace
Analysis: Big Truzz enters the Pennsylvania Derby off a career-best win in the $300,000 Ellis Park Derby, in which he surged clear to win by a widening seven lengths. In addition to earning his first career stakes win in the Ellis Park Derby, he posted a new top 105 Equibase Speed Figure in his fifth start for trainer Brian Lynch. Prior to that, the dark bay or brown Justify colt’s best stakes effort was a distant third-place finish in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun sprinting on a muddy track June 7 at Saratoga. Big Truzz appears to be trending in the right direction entering this race, but he will be stretching out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time and probably will need to improve his Equibase Speed Figure by 8-10 points to be a win threat. Jockey Javier Castellano won this race in 2007 with Timber Reserve and in 2016 on Connect.
Eclipse Sportswire
8. Baeza (2-1)
Jockey: Hector Berrios
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Owners: C R K Stable LLC and Grandview Equine
Career record: 7 starts – 1 win – 3 second – 2 thirds
Career earnings: $948,500
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 111
Pedigree: McKinzie – Puca, by Big Brown
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: A popular half-brother (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch, Baeza is still seeking his first career stakes win. The bay colt by McKinzie has come very close in big spots, finishing second in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and third to Sovereignty in both the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets. Baeza enters the Pennsylvania Derby after running second by a length to Sovereignty while earning a career-best 111 Equibase Speed Figure in the July 26 Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun. This looks like a great spot for a breakthrough win for Baeza, who should get a good trip tucked in behind an abundance of speedy types to set up his finishing kick.
Eclipse Sportswire
9. Gosger (4-1)
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Owner: Harvey A. Clarke Racing Stable
Career record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 3 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $892,200
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 108
Pedigree: Nyquist – Gloria S, by Tapit
Color: Gray or roan
Running style: Stalker/press the pace
Analysis: After back-to-back wins, including a two-length victory in the Grade 3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes, Gosger led into deep stretch in the Preakness Stakes before getting caught in the final sixteenth of a mile by Journalism. That half-length defeat in his fourth career start resulted in a new career-top 108 Equibase Speed Figure, 12 points higher than his previous best. He duplicated that performance in the NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes with another runner-up finish by a half-length to Journalism that earned another 108 speed figure. The gray or roan Nyquist colt is a very consistent racehorse and eligible to take another step forward with more than two months rest. If he does improve after pairing speed figures, the rest of this field could be running for second. Jockey Luis Saez won the Pennsylvania Derby in 2013 aboard Will Take Charge and will be sitting on one of the most likely winners in 2025, but an abundance of speed in the race could hurt Gosger’s chances.
JJ Zamaiko Photography
10. Mo Plex (12-1)
Jockey: Joseph D. Ramos
Trainer: Jeremiah Englehart
Owner: R and H Stable
Career record: 9 starts – 5 wins – 1 second – 2 thirds
Career earnings: $775,000
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 101
Pedigree: Complexity – Mo Joy, by Uncle Mo
Color: Bay
Running style: Pacesetter/press the pace
Analysis: Mo Plex has been a consistent stakes performer since last summer when he won the Grade 3 Sanford Stakes in his second career start. He had amassed five wins (four in stakes races), a second, and two thirds in eight races before his most recent start, when he ran into a 3-year-old division buzzsaw named Sovereignty in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun. Mo Plex set the pace in the 1 1/8-mile Jim Dandy and faded to fourth, 10 ¼ lengths behind this year’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets winner, who went on to add the DraftKings Travers Stakes to his burgeoning résumé. Before the Jim Dandy, Mo Plex won the Bay Shore Stakes sprinting in April at Aqueduct and the Grade 3 Ohio Derby in June (Chunk of Gold was second in that race). There is no Sovereignty in the Pennsylvania Derby, but Mo Plex still will need to significantly step up his game to beat this talented group. Barring a 10- to 15-point jump in Equibase Speed Figure, pressing the pace and holding on for a minor award looks like the ceiling for Mo Plex.
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