With 18 races having been run so far on the 2023-2024 Road to the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve, the Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes  at Tampa Bay Downs is the halfway mark as we move toward the first Saturday in May.

This Sam F. Davis brings together a full field of 12, led by West Saratoga, winner of the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes last September. Agate Road is another graded stakes winner, but on turf, having proved best in the Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes in October. Copper Tax won the non-graded Rocky Run Stakes in October and is another who may fit with these. Patriot Spirit won the Inaugural Stakes in December sprinting on the Tampa Bay Downs main track, and he is stretching out to two turns for the first time. Among the rest of the field there are a few trying stakes competition for the first time but with excellent recent form, including Change of Command, who has won two in a row including a two-turn race at Tampa Bay Downs last month. Tireless also won a route at Tampa last month and is one of two trained by Todd Pletcher (the other being Agate Road), who has saddled the winner of this race three times in the last 10 years and seven times overall. Fulmineo finished second behind Agate Road in the Pilgrim last fall on turf, and more recently was second on this track in a two-turn dirt race, won by Crazy Mason. Elysian Meadows is unbeaten in two starts, both sprints, but cannot be counted out as he is trained by Bill Mott, who won this race in 2021 with Candy Man Rocket. No More Time enters the race off a fifth-place finish in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on New Year’s Day, with Everdoit farther back in sixth in that same race. El Principito rounds out the field, with only a win last summer in a sprint to his credit and having been non-competitive in five races since then.

Main win contenders:

Change of Command has been brought along slowly by Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey, who started him at six furlongs last summer then two races later in November stretched him out to a mile. That effort in his third career start earned the colt a career-best 86 Equibase Speed Figure even though he faded to second after leading in midstretch. That effort was no disgrace as winner Sierra Leone came back to lead late and nearly win the Remsen Stakes the next month. Meanwhile, Change of Command won his next race in December.  Then, when stretched out to two turns last month, the colt returned to top form winning by a neck after gamely battling head-and-head for the final three-sixteenths of a mile. Top jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who has been riding every day at Gulfstream Park and rarely rides at Tampa Bay Downs, comes across the state for a potential Kentucky Derby mount. With just slight improvement off his last effort, Change of Command can provide this top trainer and jockey a win in this year’s Sam F. Davis Stakes.

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Agate Road moves back to dirt, where he missed by a nose in his debut last summer, after an excellent effort in the Dania Beach Stakes last month on the grass at Gulfstream Park. One of two saddled by Todd Pletcher, who has won this race three times in the past 10 years.  Agate Road follows a similar pattern as that of 2018 Sam F. Davis winner Flameaway, who won the Kitten’s Joy Stakes, run on the same weekend that year as the Dania Beach was run this year. Last fall, Agate Road won the Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes on grass with an 80 Equibase Speed Figure. Although subsequently fifth of 11 the following month in the Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, he was only beaten two lengths for the win and improved to a 104 figure which, if repeated, would make him the one to beat in this field. There is little doubt Agate Road can run as well on dirt as he has on turf as he’s a son of Quality Road out of a mare whose other foal has earned more than $300,000 and has won four dirt route races. As such, Agate Road should be taken very seriously as a contender for all the marbles in this race.

Tireless is the other Pletcher trainee and on that count must be respected. Like Agate Road does for this race, Tireless moved from turf to dirt in November, earning a then career-best 83 speed figure with a fine runner-up effort. Making his first start at Tampa Bay Downs last month, Tireless ran even better, rallying from fourth to draw off a bit late and earning a new best 88 Equibase Speed Figure. This well-bred colt who cost $875,000 at auction in 2022 has a bright future ahead of him. Except for the fact he’s never run in a stakes race, Tireless appears to have what it takes to be competitive against this group.

Elysian Meadows is very likely to be a longshot in this field, having drawn the sometimes disadvantageous outside post and trying two turns and stakes competition for the first time. However, it might be a mistake to ignore him given that Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott would not have entered the colt in this race if he did not believe he was this good. In 2021, Mott saddled Candy Man Rocket to win and Nova Rags for the runner-up spot, with both entering the Sam F. Davis off sprints. Although Elysian Meadows’ last-race speed figure of 80 is a bit below the three contenders previously mentioned, he jumped from a 74 figure in his prior race. If he moves up by a similar margin to an 86 speed figure, that could mean he will run as fast as Change of Command (85 last race figure) and Tireless (88 last race figure), possibly at high odds.

West Saratoga. (Coady Photography)

Although I believe West Saratoga is a talented horse, I am taking a stand against him as a win contender in this field. This is because not only does his record of two wins, four seconds, and zero thirds in eight races suggest he’s just as content to finish second as win, I was not impressed by his comeback after three months off on Jan. 13 in the Pasco Stakes. In that race, West Saratoga was far from as fit as he was in the fall when winning the Iroquois Stakes with an 87 figure, as his figure in the Pasco was just 68. Additionally, both of his wins came at the distance of a mile around one turn at Ellis Park in August and then in the Iroquois. When tried around two turns for the first time in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity last fall, West Saratoga looked to be a strong contender after racing in third for the first half-mile, but then faded steadily and ended up fifth, beaten 11 lengths by the winner. That being said, after he has another race under his belt in 2024, West Saratoga may be a strong candidate to run good enough to win another race on the Derby trail like this one.

The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure): Copper Tax (98), Crazy Mason (83), El Principito (71), Everdoit (87), Fulmineo (82), No More Time (87) and Patriot Spirit (87).  

Main Win Contenders, in probability order:

Change of Command

Agate Road

Tireless

Elysian Meadows

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