BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his inaugural Derby Dozen for 2024, with a look at his leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 4.

The Road to the 150^th Kentucky Derby is in full swing as January draws to a close. Last week, Track Phantom won his second qualifying points prep for the Derby by taking the Lecomte Stakes Jan. 20 at Fair Grounds. The Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, originally scheduled for Jan. 27, has been postponed until Feb. 3, and that will make the first Saturday in February a big day in terms of preps for the first Saturday in May, as four total qualifying points races for Derby 150 are now on the schedule.

Check out America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

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1. Fierceness

Pulling off the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA–Kentucky Derby double is no easy task. Of the 39 others with that opportunity, only Street Sense (2006-07) and Nyquist (2015-16) managed success in both races. The two stakes are incredibly difficult races to win, and much can unfold in the six months between the two races. The all-but-certain 2-year-old male champion of 2023, Fierceness has much in his favor – blazing-fast speed figures, proven two-turn Grade 1 ability, and a steady breeze schedule this year for Hall of Fame trainer and two-time Derby winner Todd Pletcher. He’s pointed to the Feb. 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

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2. Locked 

His third in the Nov. 3 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita Park was a quality performance. Farther off the early pace than expected, he took dirt in his face and finished well to finish just a half-length behind runner-up Muth and 6 ¾ lengths behind stablemate Fierceness in a 1 1/16-mile race blitzed in 1:41.90. Combine that with two other victories last year, including in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, and it is clear this horse is a top-flight Derby contender. With Fierceness pointed to the Holy Bull, Locked’s return is scheduled in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 10.

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3. Dornoch 

Besides the obvious talent he has shown on the racetrack – winning two of four starts last year at age 2, including the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct by a nose – he has the bloodlines for Derby success as a full brother (same sire [father] and dam [mother]) to Mage, last year’s winner of the run for the roses. Full brothers have never won the Derby – the odds are astronomical – but it is within the realm of possibility with this horse just one year after his sibling’s success. He recorded his first workout of the year on Jan. 22, an easy half-mile in :51.95. Trainer Danny Gargan hopes to return this colt in the March 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

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4. Track Phantom

With two stakes wins on the Road to the Kentucky Derby this winter at Fair Grounds, he is second on the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard with 30 qualifying points toward the May 4 classic. Though his wins in the Gun Runner Stakes and Lecomte Stakes were shy of the highest stakes levels, he decisively beat legitimate competition. Counting a maiden win at Churchill Downs last fall, he is riding a three-race win streak for the winningest trainer in North American racing history, Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen. Asmussen is seeking an elusive first Derby triumph, having gone 0-2-2 with 25 prior starters.

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5. Sierra Leone

His form resembles the early-season achievements of Zandon, trainer Chad Brown’s third-place finisher in the 2022 Kentucky Derby. Like that colt, he is trained by Brown, and both ran second, beaten in a nose, in the Remsen Stakes after a debut victory. Brown is also plotting a similar 3-year-old schedule for this colt’s first start of 2024, targeting the Feb. 17 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, where he could meet Track Phantom and others. Zandon ran third in the Risen Star before winning the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on his way to Churchill Downs to race on the first Saturday in May.

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6. Forever Young

Perfect in three starts on dirt in Japan, he is atop the Japan leaderboard on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. His connections seem excited about the possibility of bringing him to Kentucky. His win in the Dec. 13 Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun was dominant, with the colt blasting away from the opposition to score by seven lengths. His trainer, Yoshito Yahagi, has competed successfully on the biggest stage in the United States, training Loves Only You and Marche Lorraine to win Breeders’ Cup races at Del Mar in 2021.

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7. Timberlake

Last year’s Champagne Stakes winner and fourth-place finisher in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile returned to work with a three-furlong breeze in :36.20 on Jan. 20 at Fair Grounds. Trainer Brad Cox has mentioned the Feb. 24 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park as a possible return, liking the 1 1/16-mile distance for this 3-year-old’s first start of 2024. The colt seemed to settle better once blinkers were removed last fall, though he still tugged early in both the Champagne and Breeders’ Cup. Settling for his rider may prove key to excelling in longer, two-turn events as the spring progresses.

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8. Nash

Track Phantom has had his number in two stakes matchups this winter at Fair Grounds, where Nash was third behind him in the Gun Runner Stakes and second in the Lecomte. Having won his only start when he led into the first turn, he seems most effective when in front early. The problem at Fair Grounds was that Track Phantom was quicker. The colt seemingly has the tools to become one of the top runners in the division but needs to find a few lengths to close the gap on Track Phantom and others higher in the rankings.

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9. Honor Marie

He was the bargain buy of the Derby Dozen lineup, purchased at the 2022 Keeneland September Sale from the Taylor Made Sales Agency consignment by In the Trees for just $40,000. He has long since recouped that investment for owner Ribble Farms, making $318,175 in capturing two of three starts last year for trainer Whit Beckman, a former Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher assistant. The bulk of those earnings came last year in closing from last to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes by two lengths; another who is pointed to the Risen Star.

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10. Catching Freedom

This 3-year-old is reminiscent of Albaugh Family Stables’ Angel of Empire, last year’s Arkansas Derby winner and show finisher in the Derby. He appears to be a developing type, and while others in the Dozen are faster on speed figures, he gives the impression of a colt that should fare better with more distance and should a hot pace develop. In winning the 1 1/16-mile Smarty Jones Stakes Jan. 1 at Oaklawn, he ran down Just Steel, a stakes-winning sprinter but a colt that may not be as effective at a route.

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11. Hall of Fame

A $1.4 million yearling purchase, he has now run well in two starts, beginning with a debut second at Churchill Downs in the fall followed by a 10 ¼-length maiden romp at Fair Grounds Jan. 20. He was professional in that victory, rating just off the pace, taking over, and extending his lead down the stretch. He seemingly has all the ingredients for success, and no one has more experience training high-class progeny of Gun Runner than Asmussen.

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12. Born Noble 

He was sharp at first asking, scoring by 5 ½ lengths in a seven-furlong race Dec. 30 at Gulfstream timed in 1:24.27. The Todd Pletcher trainee drew off despite racing greenly by lugging in down the lane under Irad Ortiz Jr. With this colt still needing some seasoning, Pletcher may be conservative in spotting him in an allowance rather than a stakes next. Always Dreaming, Pletcher’s second Derby winner, was taken along slowly in the winter before his success in the 2017 Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby for an ownership group that included this colt’s owners, St. Elias Stable and West Point Thoroughbreds.

* Note: With Churchill Downs Inc.’s continued ban of Bob Baffert from racing at its tracks and his horses from earning Kentucky Derby qualifying points, none of his top 3-year-olds, such as Muth and Nysos, crack the Derby Dozen. Should a barn transfer occur before a Jan. 29 deadline or if CDI ultimately rescinds its ban of Baffert following the dismissal of the Medina Spirit disqualification lawsuit, Muth, Nysos, and potentially other Baffert trainees are likely Derby Dozen additions.