Steve Asmussen has enjoyed strong success in the $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds, which will be contested for the fifth time on Saturday. The Hall of Fame trainer has won two of the first four editions of the race, which is a qualifying points race for next spring’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve.

This year, Asmussen seeks to win the Gun Runner with #2 Chip Honcho (9-2). The improving colt looms as a strong win threat, in part because he’s a frontrunner in a race containing little pace on paper.

Eight horses have entered the 2025 Gun Runner, but only two have shown a willingness to set the pace. One is Chip Honcho. The other, #5 Crown the Buckeye (5-1), set the pace in his first two starts sprinting, but successfully switched to rallying tactics in the 1 1/16-mile Best of Ohio Juvenile Stakes, which he won by 4 ½ lengths. If Crown the Buckeye sticks with this proven strategy – rallying from behind when racing 1 1/16 miles – then Chip Honcho will have every chance to secure an uncontested lead.

Chip Honcho debuted in a maiden race sprinting seven-eighths of a mile at Keeneland. The pace was quick, and he was beaten to the early lead by three rivals. But he passed a couple of them to finish second, beaten 2 ¾ lengths by Dr. Kapur, who won in a respectable time.

Chip Honcho’s second start came in a one-mile maiden race over a muddy track at Churchill Downs. This time, Chip Honcho had no trouble making the lead. He set strong fractions of :22.84 and :45.92 before holding off all challengers to win by 1 ¼ lengths.

In the Gun Runner Stakes, Chip Honcho will wear blinkers for the first time, which could sharpen his speed even further. He’s slated to be ridden by Paco Lopez, who has guided more winners at Fair Grounds this meet through its early weeks than any other jockey. If Chip Honcho breaks sharply from post 2, he can dash to the lead, save ground all the way, and deliver a gate-to-wire Gun Runner triumph.

#3 Liberty National (7-2) is our second choice. While he was no match for Chip Honcho in their mutual debut against Dr. Kapur, finishing sixth, he improved dramatically in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Churchill Downs three weeks ago. He finished fast from midfield to win by 4 ¼ lengths, suggesting he’s a talented colt with a bright future.

We recommend betting Chip Honcho to win before boxing him in an exacta with Liberty National. If they run 1-2 in either order, you’ll cash the exacta ticket.

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$6 to win on #2 Chip Honcho

What to say at the betting window: Fair Grounds, 11th race, $6 to win on #2 Chip Honcho

$2 exacta: box 2,3 (total cost: $4)

What to say at the betting window: Fair Grounds, 11th race, $2 exacta: box 2,3

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$18 to win on #2 Chip Honcho

What to say at the betting window: Fair Grounds, 11th race, $18 to win on #2 Chip Honcho

$6 exacta: box 2,3 (total cost: $12)

What to say at the betting window: Fair Grounds, 11th race, $6 exacta box 2,3

Good luck, and enjoy the race!