BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his Derby Dozen with a look at his leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 4.

Last week, four Kentucky Derby preps were held on an action-packed Feb. 3: the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park, the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct, the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, and the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park. Only one qualifying points race for the 150^th Derby is on the calendar for the upcoming weekend, the Sam F. Davis Stakes Feb. 10 at Tampa Bay Downs.

Check out America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

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1. Dornoch 

If Churchill Downs Inc. had not extended its ban of trainer Bob Baffert from competition at their tracks, Nysos – the Baffert-trained Robert B. Lewis Stakes winner – would be leading the Derby Dozen. Instead, the edge in the rankings goes to Dornoch, a full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage. Last year’s Remsen Stakes winner, he is pointed toward the March 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. After an easy initial workout at Palm Meadows Training Center in South Florida, covering a half-mile in :51.95 Jan. 22, he picked up the pace with a sharper move over the same distance there Jan. 30 in :49.15.

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2. Fierceness

Last year’s champion juvenile male descends a spot in the Derby Dozen following a mediocre effort in his 3-year-old debut in the Feb. 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream. The colt seemed disinterested from the break, a bit slow into stride, and then needed to be hard-hustled to secure an up-close position outside. He forged to a short lead on the far turn, but when Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez asked him nearing the stretch, he was unresponsive and settled for third, beaten 3 ½ lengths. This was far below the colt’s best, admittedly in his first start of the year.

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3. Locked 

He missed a scheduled breeze last week after keeping a regular workout schedule since mid-December. Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher told Daily Racing Form the colt spiked a temperature and would miss a planned start in the Feb. 10 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Provided his setback is only a simple fever, he still has the wiggle room this early in the season to get two preps under his belt before the May 4 Kentucky Derby. Not an insurmountable setback, but a setback nonetheless.

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4. Track Phantom

The current top-ranked 3-year-old in Louisiana, having won both the Dec. 23 Gun Runner Stakes and the Jan. 20 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on the lead, he is pointed next to the Feb. 17 Risen Star Stakes. That race is likely to be stronger than the previous stakes in the series, and the 1 1/8-mile distance should provide him and other competitors with a stamina test over the long stretch at Fair Grounds. After a relatively slow Lecomte on speed figures, eager to see if he can produce a faster performance in the Risen Star.

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5. Sierra Leone

He is scheduled to return from a layoff in the Risen Star. Since his near-miss in the Remsen, when he rallied to pass Dornoch in the stretch before being edged by that one by a nose on the wire, he has recorded a series of weekly half-mile drills at Payson Park for trainer Chad Brown. A $2.3 million auction purchase, he looks the part of the stallion in the making – being by the brilliant Gun Runner out of the Grade 1-winning mare Heavenly Love.

Katsumi Saito

6. Forever Young

This 3-year-old has shined in Japan, winning all three of his races, including the Dec. 13 Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun by seven lengths. The Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby continues Feb. 18 with the Hyacinth Stakes. Japanese-trained runners have not finished better than sixth in six Derby starts, but given their worldwide achievements, it seems only a matter of time before they contend. Japanese horses won two Breeders’ Cup races at Del Mar in 2021, and last year Derma Sotogake ran second in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park in his first start since a sixth in the Derby.

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7. Timberlake

Trainer Brad Cox is drawn to the distance of the 1 1/16-mile Rebel Stakes Feb. 24 at Oaklawn Park or alternatively the one-mile Gotham Stakes March 2 at Aqueduct for this colt’s return. His big win last year came over a sloppy track in the one-mile Champagne Stakes before a fourth-place finish behind Fierceness in the FanDuel Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA. He settled a little better last year once blinkers were removed. If he stays on his current breeze schedule, he would have five works at age 3 before the Rebel, not as full a worktab as others.

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8. Nash

Nash was outrun by Track Phantom in his two stakes starts – finishing third in the Gun Runner Stakes and second in the Lecomte Stakes – but willing to give Nash the benefit of the doubt that there is more to be seen from him. His maiden win at Churchill Downs last fall was excellent, and a Feb. 2 workout in :49.60 at Fair Grounds that followed the Lecomte was accomplished effortlessly. It might be premature for folks to dismiss him as a cut below the other leading Derby contenders.

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9. Honor Marie 

The Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes winner has been breezing with unraced stablemate Drip this winter in Louisiana as he gears up for a return in the Risen Star Stakes. This Honor Code colt showed significant improvement once stretched out to two turns last fall, and the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Risen Star would seem to be something he should appreciate. His only defeat in three starts came when second when racing seven furlongs at Churchill Downs behind eventual Remington Springboard Mile Stakes winner and Southwest Stakes sixth-place finisher Otto the Conqueror.

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10. Mystik Dan

He came into the Feb. 3 Southwest Stakes with a distance question mark, having twice been fifth in a pair of races at a mile after a second-out maiden victory in quick time when sprinting. But he answered the stamina question in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest by blitzing the opposition by eight lengths, with a closing sixteenth timed in a :5.93 en route to final time in 1:43.67. This was an outstanding effort, albeit on a muddy/sealed track that he may have relished more than his peers.

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11. Catching Freedom

He did not blow away the competition in winning the Jan. 1 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Just  3 ¼ lengths separated first through fifth, but he handled a solid group. Mystik Dan and Just Steel – fifth and second, respectively – ran 1-2 in the Southwest. This colt seems to be an improving sort with a quality finish, and his 2-for-3 record is also appealing. A late runner, he figures to be most dangerous in races that unfold with a contested pace.

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12. Hades

The Holy Bull was not quick – 1 1/16 miles in 1:46.07, resulting in a 95 Equibase Speed Figure – but to this gelding’s credit, he turned back the challenge of Fierceness and outlasted Domestic Product to improve to 3-for-3. His connections feel as if there is still more room for development, which will be necessary if he is to follow up on his Holy Bull success. He caught Fierceness on an off day in his 3-year-old return, and the others in the Holy Bull had either no graded stakes experience or had been previously outrun in such company.