Welcome to Kentucky Derby Prospect Profiles, where we take a look each week at a recent winner on the Road to the Derby schedule from which racehorses earn points toward qualifying for the 1 ¼-mile classic race May 2, 2026, at Churchill Downs.

This week, we take a closer look at Litmus Test, the 1 ¼-length winner of the $200,500 Los Alamitos Futurity Dec. 13 at Los Alamitos. Litmus Test banked 10 points and rose to second on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 19 total qualifying points.

Racing Résumé: An $875,000 yearling purchase in 2024, Litmus Test pressed the pace in his career debut Aug. 16, 2025, at Del Mar, and edged away late to win by three-quarters of a length. He subsequently was challenged against top competition and finished fourth by 4 ¼  lengths in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity in September and third by five lengths in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders' Futurity in October at Keeneland. He proved he was not overmatched at the Grade 1 level in those two starts, which were won by highly regarded Brant and Ted Noffey, respectively, but Litmus Test also was no threat to either winner at that point in his career.

Litmus Test was sent off as a 21.70-1 longshot in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA. His resulting fourth-place Breeders’ Cup finish doesn’t jump off the page at first glance as a major step forward, he was beaten by only 1 ¾ lengths in defeat and established new career-best speed figures.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert brought Litmus Test back on six weeks of rest in the Los Alamitos Futurity, and the Nyquist colt continued to improve with a professional victory from just off the pace as the 3-5 favorite under jockey Juan Hernandez. He took aim on pacesetter Provenance entering the stretch, wore down that willing opponent, and held off a late bid from runner-up Blacksmith to prevail. He completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:42.38 for his first stakes win.

“He was in a good spot — he looked like he was relaxed. You could tell down the backside he had control of the race,” Baffert said. “He’s still a little green, but Juan was just telling me that the further the better for him.”

Speed Figures: After earning Equibase Speed Figures in the 91-92 range for each of his first three starts, Litmus Test took a significant jump to 111 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. His Equibase Speed Figure declined a bit in the Los Alamitos Futurity to a 103.

Beyer Speed Figures indicate a linear progression for Litmus Test to date: 78-82-89-95-96. The 95 earned in the Breeders’ Cup and the 96 for the Los Alamitos Futurity are high-quality numbers for a 2-year-old in December. He paired his top speed figure on six weeks rest, so Litmus Test is eligible to take another step forward in his next start if given similar rest.

Los Alamitos Futurity winner Litmus Test (Eclipse Sportswire)

Running Style: Litmus Test set the pace and faded late in the Breeders’ Futurity, but in each of his other four races he has pressed or stalked the pace. In the Los Alamitos Futurity, that tactical speed helped him overcome a somewhat sluggish start by advancing from the inside after a pair of horses raced wide on the first turn. Litmus Test cruised up to stalk Provenance from about a length behind on the backstretch, setting up a dream trip. Tactical speed is extraordinarily beneficial in race like the Kentucky Derby when facing a field of up to 20 3-year-olds.

Pedigree Notes: Litmus Test is from the sixth crop of 2015 champion 2-year-old male Nyquist, the 2016 Kentucky Derby winner and sire of U.S. champions Immersive and Vequist as well as 2025 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile victor Nysos, 2025 Preakness runner-up Gosger, and multiple Grade 1 winner Randomized.

Litmus Test was produced by the Malibu Moon mare Study Hard, a full-sister (same sire and dam) to multiple graded stakes winner Sweet August Moon. Study Hard was unplaced in three races.

Derby Potential: I had largely written off Litmus Test after the Breeders’ Futurity in October at Keeneland, but the bay colt serves as a reminder that racehorses develop and progress individually and he surprised me in his last two races. Specifically, his Beyer Speed Figures in those two starts (95-96) are elite for a 2-year-old Thoroughbred in December and he looks like a colt who is learning and getting better with experience.

On the other hand, Litmus Test did not finish fast in the Los Alamitos Futurity with a final sixteenth of a mile in 6.53 seconds and a final five-sixteenths of a mile in roughly 31 ½ seconds. He’ll need to show more late punch. In my opinion, Litmus Test rates in the second tier of Kentucky Derby hopefuls in December while trending in the right direction. I’m not ready to place a Future Wager on him just yet, but Litmus Test definitely is worth monitoring closely.