BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his Derby Dozen with a look at his leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 4.

Last week, Fierceness dominated the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa at Gulfstream Park, Bob Baffert-trained Muth, ineligible to run in the Kentucky Derby, won the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, and Japan-based Forever Young captured the United Arab Emirates Derby Sponsored by Atlantis The Royal at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai.

This upcoming Saturday, the final three 200-points preps for the 150^th Kentucky Derby will be held: the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino at Aqueduct; the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland; and the Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park.

Check out America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

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1. Fierceness

His record-setting margin of victory in the March 30 Florida Derby lands him back atop the Derby Dozen rankings. Last year’s champion 2-year-old male rebounded from his third-place finish in the Feb. 3 Holy Bull Stakes to whip the Gulfstream Park opposition by 13 ½ lengths, albeit with an easy pace on the front end, eclipsing Empire Maker’s record of 9 ¾ lengths set in 2003. He also posted a sparkling time, 1 1/8 miles in 1:48.22, resulting in matching his 110 Equibase Speed Figure earned when romping in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA at Santa Anita Park last fall. Brilliant as he was this past weekend, he will head into the Derby having alternated speedy victories with disappointing losses, a pattern that will cause some horseplayers to bet against him.

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2. Dornoch 

Breezing March 30 at Palm Beach Downs in South Florida before the April 6 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, he began by spotting stakes-winning 3-year-old filly Ringy Dingy a couple of lengths before finishing on even terms with his stablemate at the wire. Though Dornoch posted the faster time of the two, :47.25, best of 35 workouts at that distance there Friday, Ringy Dingy finished under a hold while the reins were shaken a bit at Dornoch, including on the gallop out. Eager to see what Dornoch does in the Blue Grass, specifically if he can run back to his determined Remsen Stakes score from last fall when he outgamed Sierra Leone. Dornoch’s workmanlike win in his lone start of 2024 against a depleted March 2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes field told observers little about whether he has progressed at age 3.

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3. Sierra Leone

Dual Preakness Stakes-winning trainer Chad Brown, aiming to win his first Kentucky Derby after close finishes from runner-up Good Magic in 2018 and third-place Zandon in 2022, is giving Sierra Leone his final prep in the same race as those two: Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes. Both Good Magic and Zandon won the Blue Grass before proceeding to Churchill Downs. If Sierra Leone, winner of the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds in his 3-year-old debut, is to give Brown a third Blue Grass winner, he is going to earn it. Besides being rematched with Dornoch, Sierra Leone faces other talented 3-year-olds, notably Just a Touch and Encino.

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4. Forever Young

Having won the March 30 UAE Derby in Dubai at Meydan Racecourse, this 5-for-5 colt has now qualified for the run for the roses, giving Japan two likely Kentucky Derby starters, the other being T O Password. Forever Young won more decisively in the 1,900-meter (about 1 3/16 miles) UAE Derby in taking the race by two lengths than he did in the one-mile Feb. 24 Saudi Derby, when he needed the full stretch to win by a head. The latter race seemingly offered the better field, however. His UAE Derby time of 1:57.89 was more than a couple of seconds slower than the 1:55.81 clocking from Derma Sotogake last year. That Japanese import ran sixth in the Kentucky Derby, part of a group of 19 UAE Derby competitors who have gone unplaced after shipping from the Middle East to race in the American classic.

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5. Catching Freedom

This colt also has a win at 1 3/16 miles, in the March 23 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, the longest domestic prep on the road to the Kentucky Derby. He is reminiscent of Angel of Empire, who finished third as the favorite for trainer Brad Cox and owner Albaugh Family Stables in the Kentucky Derby last year after winning the Arkansas Derby. Cox, officially a Kentucky Derby winner with Mandaloun after Medina Spirit’s disqualification in 2021, would love to enjoy the moment of winning a Derby on the racetrack. Catching Freedom is one of his leading prospects for the 2024 race, and the Louisville native has more 3-year-olds in action this weekend who could vault into the Derby lineup.

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6. Mystik Dan

With 46 qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby, the Arkansas Derby third-place finisher is currently 15^th on the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard and likely to be passed by others with major points races this weekend. However, defections in the lead-up to the race should allow him to gain a starting position. Since the points era began leading up to the 2013 Derby, no horse with this many points has ever been excluded. After a dream trip riding the fence in a muddy renewal of the Southwest Stakes, he had a much harder journey in the Arkansas Derby, hung wide throughout and slightly impeded leaving the first turn for a few strides by a drifting-out Liberal Arts. Victorious Muth is ineligible for the Derby, so of those who finished behind him in the Arkansas Derby, only runner-up Just Steel moved on to Louisville.

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7. Deterministic 

This 2-for-2 colt gets his first two-turn opportunity April 6 in the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct, a race that should be telling whether he is a Triple Crown threat or more of a middle-distance performer. He won his debut when sprinting last summer at Saratoga Race Course and then took the March 2 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct over a one-turn mile. There are some speed elements in his pedigree, particularly his turf-sprinting dam. Though the Wood does not appear to be the strongest Derby prep in terms of drawing leading 3-year-olds, a deep field is anticipated, with Tuscan Sky one of his expected adversaries.

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8. Honor Marie 

Trainer Whit Beckman, who grew up in the Derby City of Louisville, Ky., brings a horse to the Derby in good form and with a record of success beneath the Twin Spires. The Louisiana Derby runner-up won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill last fall and also scored a maiden win there. He is not as fast as other 3-year-olds on speed figures, but he was only a length behind Catching Freedom  in the Louisiana Derby and seems to be on a forward trajectory.

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9. Just Steel 

After a poor effort when seventh in the Rebel Stakes, he bounced back in the Arkansas Derby, recording his third runner-up finish in stakes company of the Oaklawn Park meeting. The only horse to come close to Muth in the stretch, losing by two lengths, he did so despite losing ground with a wide trip. That race was preceded by earlier seconds behind Mystik Dan in the Southwest Stakes and Catching Freedom in the Smarty Jones Stakes. He is poised to become the 50^th Kentucky Derby runner in the legendary training career of 88-year-old Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, a four-time Derby winner.

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10. Just a Touch 

A head-turning maiden winner going six furlongs at Fair Grounds Jan. 27, he raced next in the Gotham Stakes against Deterministic, running well but simply second best, losing by two lengths. The one-turn, one-mile Gotham offered favorable preparation for ultimately a two-turn test over a longer distance. That opportunity comes Saturday in the Blue Grass, where he will face more seasoned stakes rivals in Dornoch and Sierra Leone. With 25 qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby, he likely needs only a third-place finish to gain sufficient points to secure a starting spot if his connections wish to pursue it.

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11. Tuscan Sky

Previously ranked in the Derby Dozen, he fell out after a couple of uninspired March workouts, but he is back in the top 12 after some others ran their way out of the standings. Perhaps he is just not one for practice in the mornings. He is 2-for-2 in the afternoons, winning a maiden race in New York, then defeating next-out Hot Springs Stakes winner Nash in an allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds. Those wins for Tuscan Sky, both over wet tracks, earned him stakes-quality Equibase Speed Figures of 97 and 99, respectively. Having skipped the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds with him and in need of Kentucky Derby qualifying points, trainer Todd Pletcher returns him to race in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, where the gray or roan colt broke his maiden.

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12. Domestic Product

The Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby winner is not as fast as others on this list, having a career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 92, but he does appear to possess quality and a closing punch to suggest he will like racing the Derby distance of 1 ¼ miles. He has also kept solid competition at times, matched against horses such as Fierceness, Dornoch, and Sierra Leone. Perhaps he can run faster in a race with a legitimate pace. The six-furlong split in the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby was 1:16.21, which forced him and the rest of the field to dash home like quickening turf horses. This slow pace contributed to the ordinary final time of 1:45.27.

Note: With Churchill Downs Inc.’s continued ban of Bob Baffert from racing at its tracks and of his horses from earning Kentucky Derby qualifying points, none of his top 3-year-olds are in the Derby Dozen, including Arkansas Derby winner Muth. Look for Baffert in the Triple Crown starting with the May 18 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course.