This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2024 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not quite as strong as they were a few weeks ago.

In this eighth edition of this blog for the 2024 run for the roses, the focus is on the key Derby prep races from last weekend on the Triple Crown trail.

THREE HEATING UP

Walter Wlodarczyk/NYRA

1. Resilience

In my opinion, no 3-year-old did more to raise his stock as a Kentucky Derby contender last weekend than Resilience. This colt by leading sire Into Mischief out of a terrific family cultivated by Marty and Pam Wygod put it all together in the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino with a dominant 2 ¼-length win April 6 at Aqueduct. He added blinkers for the race at the suggestion of Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez to help him pass horses and he rolled past two opponents after stalking a solid half-mile in :47.49. He then completed the final three-eighths of a mile in approximately :37.80 to earn his way into the Kentucky Derby. I love to see a 3-year-old who can rate willingly near a decent pace and still finish well and that was the type of effort Resilience turned in Saturday in the Wood Memorial. He has improved both his Equibase and Beyer Speed Figures in each of his six career races to date as he continues to get better and better for Hall of fame trainer Bill Mott. He will need to continue that upward trajectory because on paper he has not run a fast enough race yet to compete against the best of the best of this division, but Mott is a master and he has a nice 3-year-old to work with in this colt out of Meadowsweet, a daughter of multiple Grade 1-winning router Tranquility Lake, who also produced Grade 1 winners and sires Courageous Cat and After Market. He’ll need a new rider as Velazquez almost certainly will ride champion Fierceness, the probable favorite for the Kentucky Derby, but Resilience will be one of my key horses when betting the run for the roses.

Lou Hodges, Jr. /Hodges Photography

2. Just a Touch

Just a Touch ran second in just his third career start in the $1 million, Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, finishing 1 ½ lengths behind the 3-year-old I view as the most likely Kentucky Derby winner in Sierra Leone. The Justify colt pressed the pace from second in the 1 1/8-mile race, opened a clear lead in early stretch under Florent Geroux, but could not turn away Sierra Leone in the final sixteenth of a mile April 6 at Keeneland. He entered the Blue Grass off a runner-up finish to Deterministic in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes in March and recorded a new career-top 105 Equibase Speed Figure and 96 Beyer Speed Figure in the Blue Grass Stakes. It was a heck of a race for his first try navigating two turns as he was just a length behind a swift opening half-mile in :46.48. The Blue Grass should provide good experience and Just a Touch figures to have more foundation for his second try around two turns. But I’ll admit I’m a bit concerned about the extra eighth of a mile in the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby, especially considering the final furlong in the Blue Grass was a rather slow :13.48. Trainer Brad Cox, who won the 2021 Kentucky Derby via disqualification with Mandaloun, will have four weeks to prepare this lightly raced colt out of Touching Beauty, a graded stakes-winning miler, to run the race of his life. Tactical speed is invaluable in a race like the Kentucky Derby, with 20 horses rushing out of the starting gate and vying for prime positioning, and Just a Touch’s quickness will be a big asset. I expect him to be right in the hunt entering the stretch at Churchill Downs and that’s a great spot to be for a colt with a realistic shot at a top-three finish.

BENOIT photo

3. Stronghold

Stronghold ran a terrific race in the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby April 6 at Santa Anita Park, where he reeled in the Bob Baffert-trained even-money favorite Imagination to win by a neck. The Sunland Park Derby winner proved at Santa Anita that he is a game 3-year-old capable of competing against the best of his generation. After my first watch of the race, I figured I would give him strong consideration for the top spot in this blog this week and he earned it by punching his ticket to Louisville. While I was impressed with his race, I preferred the top two for a couple of reasons. The quality of this year’s Santa Anita Derby was simply not as strong as year’s past. Imagination is probably Baffert’s third- or fourth-string 3-year-old after Robert B. Lewis Stakes winner Nysos and Arkansas Derby winner Muth, and the rest of this Santa Anita Derby field lacked any true standouts. The speed figures support that premise as Stronghold’s winning Equibase Speed Figure, a 99, was the slowest for a Santa Anita Derby winner since Equibase started assigning them in 1992. (On the bright side, outside of Fierceness, this is not an especially fast crop of 3-year-olds.) Stronghold did overcome adversity in the form of traffic in the race and he finished pretty well – final three-eighths of a mile in approximately :38.75 and a final furlong in :13.10 – after stalking within 2 ½ lengths of a sprightly half-mile in :46.73. Stronghold and his owners-breeders Rick and Sharon Waller are one of the best stories of this year’s Kentucky Derby, so this Ghostzapper colt out of the couple’s first graded stakes winner, Spectator, is an easy 3-year-old to root for May 4 at Churchill Downs. Likewise, he will be trainer Phil D’Amato and jockey Antonio Fresu’s first career starter in the Kentucky Derby. Stronghold’s 99 Equibase Speed Figure for the Santa Anita Derby was a new career best and he equaled his best Beyer Speed Figure with an 89. Stronghold must continue to improve to be a win candidate in the Kentucky Derby.

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Also-eligible: Sierra Leone entered last weekend as the 3-year-old I consider to be the most likely winner of the 2024 Kentucky Derby. The talented Gun Runner colt did nothing to dissuade me in winning the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes by 1 ½ lengths while earning a new career-top 107 Equibase Speed Figure and a new best 98 Beyer Speed Figure in his fourth start for four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown. The big concern for me came before the race itself when he was very reluctant to load into the starting gate in front of a boisterous crowd at Keeneland. I’m a little worried how he’ll react in front of about 150,000 alcohol-lubricated fans on the first Saturday in May. Just something worth noting. … Based solely on where he was a week ago, you could make a compelling case Society Man deserved a spot in the top three in this week’s blog. The Danny Gargan-trained Good Magic gelding came out of a maiden win March 9 at Aqueduct and rallied to finish second at 106.75-1 odds (not a typo) in the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes April 6. With that one stakes-placing, Society Man punched his Kentucky Derby ticket. He’s been an inconsistent racehorse with three top-three finishes and a pair of races in which he was beaten by 15 lengths or more in five lifetime starts. He figures to be one of the biggest longshots in the Kentucky Derby field, but the 99 Equibase Speed Figure and 87 Beyer Speed Figure he earned in the Wood Memorial indicate he’s not completely overmatched.

THREE COOLING DOWN

Chelsea Durand/NYRA

1. Deterministic

Deterministic has 50 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby, more than enough to guarantee his starting spot in the May 4 classic race, but his first race around two turns in the April 6 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino was not especially promising. The Liam’s Map colt entered the race 2-for-2 with a maiden win sprinting and a victory by two lengths in the one-turn-mile Gotham Stakes. Stretching out to 1 1/8-miles for the Wood Memorial, Deterministic stalked the pace from fourth, was trapped a bit behind horses approaching the stretch, and then failed to fire as he faded to eighth, beaten by 17 ¾ lengths. He’s a very nice 3-year-old colt with a promising future, but there is no denying this was a step backward one race before the most important test of his career in the Kentucky Derby. He reportedly came out of the race in good order, but Daily Racing Form reported his status for the Kentucky Derby was “improbable not impossible.” His Wood Memorial effort simply was not an ideal springboard to the Kentucky Derby.

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2. Dornoch

Last year’s Remsen Stakes winner opened the season with a front-running victory by 1 ¾ lengths in the Grade 2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes. The full-brother (same dam [mother], same sire [father]) to last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mage, however, took a step back in his final prep for this year’s Derby as he finished fourth, beaten by 6 ½ lengths, in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes April 6 at Keeneland. By no means was this a disastrous start for Dornoch, who was asked to rate behind the speed in the Blue Grass after leading from start to finish in his three previous races, all wins. But it was not an ideal steppingstone to the Kentucky Derby, a race that is an additional eighth of a mile in distance and typically features multiple entrants vying for the lead. I still believe in the talent and I don’t think the Blue Grass was Dornoch at his best, but it’s tough to argue that his Derby stock didn’t take a significant hit at Keeneland on Saturday.  

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3. Uncle Heavy

This Social Inclusion colt entered the Wood Memorial Stakes with 20 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby from his nose victory in the Grade 3 Withers Stakes Feb. 3 at the same track and 1 1/8-mile distance. He picked up 10 additional points for a fifth-place finish in the Wood Memorial, which leaves him on the outside looking in for a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. Uncle Heavy was making a sweeping bid into the stretch when Deposition got bumped between horses, clipped heels, and fell just to Uncle Heavy’s inside. Deposition, according to reports, came out of that spill a bit sore but otherwise unscathed, which was terrific news. Uncle Heavy, no doubt, was impacted by that incident, however, and lost some momentum but battled on to finish fifth, beaten by 11 lengths. I don’t believe under the circumstances we got a true measure of Uncle Heavy’s ability, and unfortunately it might have cost him a shot at the first jewel of the Triple Crown.