The 43rd running of the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes Presented by Dixiana, a staple of the Keeneland fall meet since its first edition in 1984, drew a highly competitive field of 11 3-year-old fillies. Run at 1 1/8 miles on the turf, the QEII boasts a $750,000 purse. This year’s edition shapes up as a fantastic race and an opportunistic betting affair.
Here’s a look at the field from the inside (rail) post position out:
Haute Diva, a Constitution filly with the highest morning line odds in the field of 30-1, drew the inside for trainer Patrick Biancone with Keith Asmussen back aboard. Last time out, despite being pinched at the start and finishing sixth in the Beverly D Stakes at Colonial Downs, she earned a career-best 101 Equibase Speed Figure. Luster, the 5-2 morning-line favorite, is fresh off a dominant win in the King’s Plate, where she defeated males by 7 ¼ lengths on the all-weather track at Woodbine and earned a 108 Equibase figure for trainer Josie Carroll. The Knicks Go filly is moving back to turf in this spot, but she started her career on that surface with two wins by a combined margin of 11 ¼ lengths including a five-length score in an allowance race at Keeneland in April. John Velazquez, who was aboard for her wins in the Woodbine Oaks Presented by Stella Artois and King’s Plate along with the victory at Keeneland, will be back in the irons. Tam Tam is coming off back-to-back wins at the stakes level with a 5 ¾ length victory in the Tepin Stakes in June and a 1 ¼ length win in the Del Mar Oaks Presented by Keeneland Sales last time out in August over fellow QEII contenders Lookin At Diamond and Kensington Lane. Trained by Phil Bauer, Tam Tam will have regular rider Junior Alvarado in the saddle. Faithful Departed, a Yoshida filly, is coming off back-to-back runner up finishes in the Belmont Oaks and Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Oaks for trainer Grant Forster. In May, Faithful Departed won the Regret Stakes over QEII contenders Storm’s Wake and Tam Tam. Jose Ortiz will be back aboard for the fifth consecutive time. Turner’s Charm, a Not This Time filly trained by Brendan Walsh, earned her first career win at Keeneland last October as a 2-year-old. Turner’s Charm was then sidelined for nearly seven months and won an allowance optional claiming race at Churchill Downs in her 3-year-old debut before finishing eighth, second by a head, and third in turf stakes leading up to the QEII. Ben Curtis will be in the irons for the fifth consecutive time. Braida ships in from France for her North American debut for trainer Francis-Henri Graffard, who won the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf with Gezora. Braida won three of five starts across the pond including a win last time out in the Prix de la Cochere at Longchamp on Sept. 3. Vincent Cheminaud will be aboard for his first mount of the Keeneland meet and his only mount of the day.
Following a fourth-place finish to Kensington Lane and Faithful Departed in the Belmont Oaks, Storm’s Wake went on to win the Old Dominion Oaks at Colonial in her next start. The Oscar Performance filly made her one start at Keeneland a winning one back in April, posting a 22-1 upset in the Appalachian Stakes Presented by JRA. Tyler Gaffalione will be first-time riding for trainer Brian Lynch. Lookin At Diamond, a Lookin At Lucky filly, finished runner-up to Tam Tam last time out in the Del Mar Oaks at Odds of 40-1 for trainer Leonard Powell, who has made just four starts at Keeneland over the last five years. Julien Leparoux, who was aboard for the Del Mar Oaks, will be back in the irons for his first mount of the Keeneland meet and only mount of the day. Kensington Lane shipped in from Ireland in July to win the Belmont Oaks in front-running fashion in her first start in North America. Last time out for her first start in the Phil D’Amato barn, she finished third in the Del Mar Oaks after setting the pace. Joel Rosario, who has been aboard for both of her starts in North America, retains the mount. Deep Learning, a Cairo Prince filly trained by Chad Brown, will be stretching out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time. Deep Learning is a career 5-for-6 finishing in the top three, including four graded stakes appearances, and she has never finished worse than 1 ¾ lengths behind the winner. Flavien Prat, who was aboard for four of six of her career starts, will be reunited for the first time since their runner-up finish in the Lake George Stakes Presented by Surfside on Aug. 1. Soloist, an Into Mischief filly out of the Grade 1-winning mare Daddys Lil Darling, drew the far outside post for trainer Kenny McPeek. Last time out, Soloist finished a narrow second to Storm’s Wake in the Old Dominion Oaks and she seeks the first win of her 3-year-old campaign in the QEII. Irad Ortiz Jr. will be aboard for the first time.
Analysis and Main Contenders:
Faithful Departed is a talented filly who has been targeting this race and is due for a win as she exits two fantastic efforts at the Grade 1 and Grade 2 levels. Apart from her career debut on dirt where she finished a distant seventh, Faithful Departed has been a model of consistency and has never finished more than 2 ¾ lengths behind the winner in any race on turf. She’s been active this year at age 3, starting with a narrow second-place finish in the LeCombe Memorial Stakes at Fair Grounds at odds of 36-1 and then a sixth-place effort in the Appalachian Stakes at Keeneland won by Storm’s Wake where she closed well but ran out of running distance. Just three weeks later, Faithful Departed returned to the 1 1/16-mile distance in an allowance at Churchill Downs which she won by 1 ¾ lengths, earning a 98 Equibase figure. In May, she stretched out to the QEII’s 1 1/8-mile distance for the first time and really found her stride, splitting horses into the lane to win the Regret Stakes at Churchill by 2 ¼ lengths over Storm’s Wake and Tam Tam. Faithful Departed earned a 108 Equibase figure for her effort in the Regret, which ties as the highest number earned by of any filly in this field. In July, Faithful Departed shipped up to Saratoga and moved up from last to finish a game second behind Kensington Lane, who set a moderate pace and held on. Last time out, Faithful Departed stretched out to 1 3/16 miles in the Saratoga Oaks and again put together a strong rally, going from sixth to first in a single point of call only to narrowly miss by a head to Kentucky Belle. That filly went on to dominate the Blackwood Dueling Grounds Oaks Invitational Stakes at Kentucky Downs by 6 ¾ lengths in her next start. Faithful Departed should really benefit from a turnback to 1 1/8 miles in the QE II and no doubt will unleash a quick turn of foot come the quarter pole. A meaningful positive is jockey Jose Ortiz staying aboard, as he has two wins and two seconds aboard Faithful Departed, three of which were at the graded level. While trainer Grant Forster and Ortiz have not had a ton of starts together over the years, they have been able to find much success. In the last five years, Forster and Ortiz win at a tremendous 41% in all races together (seven-for-17) and finish in the top three 71% of the time with a 35% return on investment. Their win percentage increases to 47% from 15 starts in the Kentucky circuit over the same five years as well. Faithful Departed has been targeting this race since the Saratoga Oaks in August and has been working forwardly over the Churchill Downs training track since, including a four-furlong breeze in :47.40 on Oct. 1. Based on a return to her preferred distance, her winning connections, and her ability to close strong into a slow or hot pace, Faithful Departed is a formidable contender and could very well become a Grade 1 winner on Saturday.
Tam Tam has been a steadily improving filly since her 2-year-old campaign and has started to hit her best strides as of late. Tam Tam earned her first career win in her 3-year-old debut at Gulfstream Park, which was also in her first start on turf. She then followed that up with a narrow victory in the Sanibel Island Stakes at Gulfstream in March, racing 7 ½ furlongs on turf. Tam Tam next stretched out to 1 1/16 miles for the first time in the Edgewood Stakes Presented by Accenture at Churchill Downs in May and just missed by a head, while also cracking the triple-digit Equibase figure mark with a 104. She finished third to Faithful Departed in the Regret, but since then Tam Tam has started to dominate. In the Tepin Stakes at Churchill going one mile on the turf, Tam Tam drew clear to win by 5 ¾ lengths earned a 104 Equibase figure. Last time out, Tam Tam stalked Kensington Lane’s slow pace in the Del Mar Oaks, took command at the eighth pole, and did not look back, drawing clear to win by 1 ¼ lengths and improving to a career-best 105 Equibase figure. She is in prime position to stalk the pace presumably set yet again by Kensington Lane Saturday in the QEII. A notable positive is Junior Alvarado retaining the mount as he has been aboard for five of her six starts on turf, including all her stakes wins. Phil Bauer and Alvarado win at an impressive 35% in all races together over the last five years (13-for-37) and finish 65% in the top three with a 33% return on investment. Tam Tam has wonderful opportunity to pick up a second Grade 1 victory in this race, especially if she continues her increasing speed figure pattern.
Luster is another filly in this field who has been remarkably consistent as well posting continuously improving speed figures. The Ontario-bred won her first two races at Woodbine and Keeneland, both on turf, before making for her stakes debut in the seven-furlong Ruling Angel Stakes on Woodbine’s all-weather track, where she endured her only loss to date. Luster remained on the all-weather track at Woodbine for the 1 1/16-mile Selene Stakes in June and was much the best, improving to a then-career-top 93 Equibase figure with a 1 ¾-length win. In the Woodbine Oaks on July 19, John Velazquez jumped back aboard Luster for the first time since her Keeneland win and the pair went on to dominate by 5 ½ lengths, earning a 98 Equibase figure in her first start at the 1 1/8-mile distance on an all-weather track. Last time out, Luster won the King’s Plate as the heavy favorite, taking command at the quarter pole and drawing clear to win by 7 ¼ lengths under a hand ride by Velazquez. Luster earned a career-best 108 Equibase figure for the win against a field that included one other filly and 10 colts and geldings, which is the highest last-out Equibase figure of any filly in this QEII field. Over the past month, horses in graded stakes races on the turf with the highest last-out Equibase figure win at 34%. Military Time, who finished a distant second to Luster in the King’s Plate, went on to win the Prince of Wales Stakes at Fort Erie, the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, which added to Luster’s impressive résumé. Luster has come out of the King’s Plate in good order, posting two consecutive bullet works in her first breezes since the win. While she did win the King’s Plate, Luster will face a 10-point increase in class rating in the QEII. She is proven over Keeneland’s turf course and real deal in here. Luster is still a question mark in a lot of ways, and a 5-2 morning line is a short price for a filly making her Grade 1 debut.
The rest of the field with their best Equibase Speed Figures in similar races is, Haute Diva (101), Turner’s Charm (100), Braida (n/a), Storm’s Wake (105), Lookin At Diamond (103), Kensington Lane (102), Deep Learning (101), and Soloist (102).
Win Contenders in Preference Order:
Faithful Departed
Tam Tam
Luster
