Ten Key Handicapping Questions That Must Be Answered for the 2025 Breeders’ Cup

Gambling
Seismic Beauty, Bob Baffert, Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff, Del Mar, America's Best Racing, horse racing, ABR
Can Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s speedy Seismic Beauty run them off their feet in the $2 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff? Plus nine other questions that must be answered. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Even the best horses competing in the Breeders’ Cup World Championships this coming Friday and Saturday at Del Mar have questions revolving around them. Here is a look at 10 questions handicappers must consider as part of their evaluation.

QUESTION: Do 3-year-olds face a significant disadvantage when they meet older horses in the $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic?

FOOD FOR THOUGHT: The questions is especially pertinent this year because last year’s top-three finishers – Sierra Leone, Fierceness, and Forever Young – all return as 4-year-olds. History points to grizzled veterans having the edge, since older horses have taken 27 of 41 previous editions of the Classic. At the same time, last year provides a reminder that quality 3-year-olds can break through.

QUESTION: Is Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets, and DraftKings Travers Stakes winner Sovereignty a deserving strong favorite in what experts view as one of the saltiest editions in Classic history?

FOOD FOR THOUGHT: Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has been eyeing this season-culminating race from early on. He has been protective of the Godolphin homebred at every turn, spurning a Triple Crown bid by skipping the Preakness Stakes and keeping him from older company until now. There is every reason to believe Mott will have Sovereignty primed to run the race of a lifetime.

QUESTION: Can Sierra Leone repeat?

FOOD FOR THOUGHT: This deep closer’s four-race body of work this season raises serious doubts. He’s been third in the New Orleans Classic Stakes Presented by Relyne GI By Hagyard, second in the Stephen Foster Stakes, and then won the Whitney Stakes before placing second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes. While he’s hit the board in all 13 of his lifetime starts, his dependence on pace always makes him vulnerable.

Fierceness, Breeders’ Cup Classic, slideshow, contenders, Del Mar, America's Best Racing, horse racing, ABR
Pacific Classic Stakes winner Fierceness (BENOIT photo)

QUESTION: Fierceness has been a puzzle throughout his career. After a seventh-place finish in the Champagne Stakes, he won the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He rolled by 13 ½ lengths in the Florida Derby only to follow that with a 15th-place Kentucky Derby clunker. This season, he came in a perplexing fifth in the Whitney only to follow that with a decisive Pacific Classic Stakes score. Which Fierceness will show up in the final start of his career?

FOOD FOR THOUGHT: There is reason to believe the very good Fierceness will show up because he has shown an affinity for Del Mar. He ran a commendable race to finish second in last year’s Classic there. He looked the part of a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner when he easily dispatched 3-year-old Journalism by 3 ¼ lengths in the Pacific Classic in his only other start “Where the Turf Meets the Surf.”

QUESTION: Saudi Cup winner Forever Young has raced once, winning the Oct. 1 Nippon TV Hai, since his third-place outing in the Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline on April 5. Will this have him ready for the massive challenge the Classic represents?

FOOD FOR THOUGHT: It appears he thrives on a light schedule. Consider his handling last year. After his close-up third in the Kentucky Derby on May 4, he did not go to the starting gate again until he won the Japan Dirt Classic on Oct. 2. Undoubtedly, he was more than ready for that Classic.

QUESTION: Will the decision to replace Umberto Rispoli with Jose Ortiz benefit Journalism?

FOOD FOR THOUGHT: The connections give up a lot in familiarity since Rispoli had ridden Journalism in all but one of his 10 career starts. At the same time, Journalism had to extricate himself from a terrible spot in the Preakness and a leisurely start left him with too much to do against Fierceness in the Pacific Classic, a race in which he appeared second best no matter who rode him. There is nothing to lose with the move to the nation’s third-leading rider by purse earnings and everything to gain.

Rebel's Romance, Breeders' Cup Turf, Del Mar, America's Best Racing, horse racing, ABR
Rebel's Romance wins his prep for the 2025 Breeders' Cup Turf (Eclipse Sportswire)

QUESTION: Can 7-year-old gelding Rebel’s Romance win the $5 million Longines Turf for a record third time following victories in 2022 and last year?

FOOD FOR THOUGHT: History suggests it is asking a lot since the great Goldikova stands as the only horse to win the same race as many as three times since the inception of the Breeders’ Cup in 1984. She swept the Mile from 2008 to 2010. At the same time, there is no denying that Rebel’s Romance, a winner of 20 of 29 lifetime starts with more than $14 million in earnings, looked the part in controlling the Sept. 27 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes by 3 ½ lengths in a prep for his historic bid.

QUESTION: Can anyone keep up with dedicated front-runner Seismic Beauty, a 4-year-old daughter of Uncle Mo, in the $2 million Longines Distaff?

FOOD FOR THOUGHT: It’s going to be difficult. She is riding a three-race winning streak, most recently repelling classy Kopion by 1 ½ lengths in the Aug. 2 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes Presented by Oak Tree Racing at Del Mar. She has shown she can handle the 1 1/8-mile distance with a win in her only attempt. She relishes Del Mar with two wins and a second in three starts. Last and hardly least, she has a Hall of Fame trainer in Bob Baffert.

QUESTION: Is Ted Noffey more than a peculiar name in the FanDuel Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance?

Ted Noffey, Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, Keeneland, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Del Mar, America's Best Racing, horse racing, ABR
Ted Noffey wins Breeders’ Futurity Oct. 4 at Keeneland. (BloodHorse/Mathea Kelley)

FOOD FOR THOUGHT: Much more. The top Spendthrift prospect, intended as a salute to accomplished general manager Ned Toffey, arrives with a glistening 3-for-3 mark. He displayed brilliance with an 8 ½-length rout in the Spendthrift Farm Hopeful Stakes. Two turns were no problem in a 2 ¾-length decision in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, a key Juvenile prep. Trainer Todd Pletcher knows his way to the Juvenile winner’s circle. His four wins trail only fellow Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, who has six.

QUESTION: Larry Doyle’s KatieRich Farms acquired New York-bred Iron Orchard for $2.5 million at Fasig-Tipton’s Digital Fall Flash Sale. Will she provide an immediate return in the $2 million NetJets Juvenile Fillies?

FOOD FOR THOUGHT: Give Doyle credit for having the heart of a gambler. The daughter of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic is perfect through three starts, but two of those were against state-breds. She is unproven at two turns. Trainer Danny Gargan expressed a willingness to pass on the Breeders’ Cup after she eked out a nose victory in the one-turn, one-mile Frizette on Oct. 4 at Aqueduct. All of that may be cause for concern.


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