Noel’s Weekend Winners: Action Heats Up Saturday in Hot Springs
Two Out Hero Poised for a Winning Effort in John Battaglia Stakes
GamblingThe Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve stops at Turfway Park this weekend with the $175,000 John Battaglia Memorial Stakes for 3-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles on Turfway’s all-weather track. The John Battaglia Memorial is worth a total of 42 Derby points distributed to the top five finishers on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale and serves as a prep race for the 100-point Jeff Ruby Steaks in March. A full field of 12 plus an also-eligible were entered in this year’s edition.
Here’s a look at the field from the rail out:
Street Beast, the 5-2 morning-line favorite, drew the inside post for trainer Ben Colebrook with regular rider Luan Machado back aboard. The Street Sense colt went gate-to-wire in the Leonatus Stakes at Turfway last time out in his 3-year-old debut following a fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar to end his 2-year-old campaign. Steel Imperium rallied from last to a four-length victory in his career debut at Turfway just a couple of weeks ago, earning a 91 Equibase Speed Figure. Maximus Prime, the lone maiden in the field, will be making his sixth start for trainer Anthony Mitchell after beginning his career trained by the late Larry Demeritte. Kilo Tango, the first of two Brad Cox-trained entrants, scored his first win in his third career start last time out, which was also his first try over the all-weather track at Turfway. Baytown Dreamer won on turf at Ellis Park in July, finished third in the Smarty Jones Stakes on dirt at Oaklawn Park in early January, and will be racing on an all-weather surface for the first time. Time for Money, trained by John Ennis, won on turf at Churchill Downs in October and will be making his second start at Turfway following a fourth-place finish last time out. Attfield is fresh off a win in the Central Park Stakes at Aqueduct going 1 1/16 miles on turf and will be making his first try on an all-weather surface. Ricardo Santana Jr. retains the mount following their win together last time out. Great White, also trained by John Ennis, won his career debut at Turfway Dec. 12 before a fifth-place finish in the Leonatus Stakes last time out. Stop the Car went 2-for-2 to begin his career before running seventh in the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds for trainer Brendan Walsh. Aces Honor, trained by Ethan West, is fresh off back-to-back victories on turf including the Bob Bork Texas Turf Mile Stakes last time out at Sam Houston Race Park. Fulleffort is the second choice on the morning line at 3-1 odds and is also the second Brad Cox-trained entrant. He finished runner-up last time out to Street Beast in the Leonatus Stakes in his first try on an all-weather track after making four consecutive starts on turf. Two Out Hero won his career debut by 12 lengths on Woodbine’s all-weather track before scoring in the Soaring Free Stakes and finishing third in the bet365 Summer Stakes over Woodbine’s turf. He’s set to make his first start outside of Canada for trainer Kevin Attard with regular rider Rafael Hernandez back aboard. Small Town, the also-eligible in the field, won his first career start, a six-furlong sprint at Turfway on Jan. 10, for trainer Michael McCarthy.
Analysis and Main Contenders:
Listed as the 7-2 morning-line third choice, Two Out Hero presents solid wagering value as he exits a strong third-place finish, beaten just a length, in the Summer Stakes at Woodbine in September. After his eye-catching career debut win at six furlongs in July, Two Out Hero followed that effort with a win in the Soaring Free Stakes by 1 ½ lengths while stretching out to 6 ½ furlongs on turf. In the process, he improved his Equibase Speed Figure from an 83 to a 90. The third-place finisher in that race, Argos, returned to defeat Two Out Hero in the Summer Stakes. Although he did not secure the victory in the Summer Stakes, Two Out Hero performed admirably in his two-turn debut on turf, briefly taking command in the stretch while shifting out from the rail before being caught late. Two Out Hero earned a career-best 94 Equibase Figure for the effort, continuing his progression of improved figures in each start. Two Out Hero enters the John Battaglia off a nearly 5 ½-month layoff; however, trainer Kevin Attard wins at a 22% clip with runners returning from a 60 to 180-day break. While Attard has made just four career starts at Turfway Park, his most recent runner at the track was a winner, as Caitlinhergrtness took the My Charmer Stakes in late December. Two Out Hero has a proven affinity for racing on an all-weather track, he has shown versatility by winning on the lead and stalking, and he’s handled two turns effectively in graded company. With much of the wagering attention expected to focus on Street Beast and Fulleffort, Two Out Hero offers value while benefiting from class relief in this spot.

Fulleffort, a half-brother to Grade 1 winner Power Squeeze, has shown steady progression throughout his career and enters this race off his third consecutive improving Equibase Speed Figure, earning a 93 in his runner-up finish to Street Beast in the Leonatus Stakes. Although he settled for second, Fulleffort was closing into modest early fractions and should benefit from both a more honest pace scenario and the stretch out to 1 1/16 miles in the John Battaglia, a distance at which he delivered a dominant victory on turf at Keeneland back in October. The son of Liam’s Map began his career with three one-mile turf starts, finishing fourth and third at Ellis Park before winning at Kentucky Downs with an 86 Equibase Speed Figure. He followed that effort with the aforementioned allowance optional claiming victory at Keeneland, drawing clear by five lengths while improving to a 90 Equibase Speed Figure. The Leonatus marked Fulleffort’s first start over an all-weather surface, and despite closing into the slow pace, he finished strong. This colt ranks second in the Battaglia field by Late Pace rating at 103.0 and benefits from strong connections, as trainer Brad Cox has won at a 29% clip and finished in top three 63% of the time in all-weather routes over the past three years at Turfway (128 starts). In his second start over Turfway’s track, Fulleffort appears poised to take another step forward.
There are not a lot of speed horses entered in the Battaglia, which means Street Beast appears well-positioned to control the pace, much like he did in his gate-to-wire victory in the Leonatus Stakes at Turfway last time out. He has been remarkably consistent in his career, finishing outside the exacta just once, which was the abovementioned fourth-place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Street Beast debuted with a runner-up finish in a turf sprint at Ellis Park in August before breaking through with an allowance victory at Kentucky Downs. He then delivered a dominant seven-length score in the Juvenile Mile Stakes, also at Kentucky Downs, in his first route attempt. The bay colt earned a career-best (and best in this field) 102 Equibase Speed Figure in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, before posting a 95 Equibase Figure in the Leonatus following the class drop. In that race, Street Beast dictated the pace, set moderate early fractions of 24.15 and 48.54, and held safely to win by a length. The John Battaglia will mark his first start beyond a mile, but Street Beast’s established tactical speed and proven class make him a major factor once again. He has posted sharp works over the Keeneland all-weather since his most recent victory and projects to secure a favorable trip with another opportunity to take this field all the way.
The rest of the field, with the best Equibase Speed Figures in similar races, is Steel Imperium (91), Maximus Prime (93), Kilo Tango (84), Baytown Dreamer (82), Time for Money (85), Attfield (91), Great White (87), Stop the Car (91), Aces Honor (98), and Small Town (87).
Win Contenders in Preference Order: