The Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve in Louisiana continues Saturday with the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds, offering 42 Derby qualifying points on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale to the top five finishers. The Lecomte has produced two Kentucky Derby winners, War Emblem, who finished fifth before winning the 2002 Derby, and Mandaloun, who ran third in the Lecomte before running second and then being elevated to first in the 2021 run for the roses. The Lecomte has been a key steppingstone for other classic winners as well. Risen Star finished second before winning the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes in 1988, while Oxbow (2013) and War of Will (2019) each won both the Lecomte and the Preakness. Eleven colts will line up for this year’s edition, although Daily Racing Form reported that Ocelli will scratch and run in a maiden race on the Saturday card at Fair Grounds instead. With Crown the Buckeye sporting the lowest-morning line odds at 4-1, the race shapes up as a deep and competitive wagering opportunity.
Here's a look at the field from the rail (inside) post position out:
Quality Mischief, one of three entrants for the Brad Cox stable, is fresh off a fourth-fourth place finish by just a length in the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds in December. Carson Street earned his first win by 11 ¼ lengths last time out over a sloppy Fair Grounds track going the Lecomte’s 1 1/16-mile distance for trainer Brendan Walsh. The Street Sense colt has finished in the top three in all four career starts over dirt and turf. Morning-line favorite Crown the Buckeye, an Ohio-bred trained by Mike Maker, was dominant at the state-level stakes condition to begin his career and narrowly missed last time out in his first start against open company in the Gun Runner Stakes finishing third by three-quarters of a length. Ricardo Santana Jr. will be aboard for the first time Saturday. Exosome scored last time out in a maiden special weight race on a sloppy Keeneland track in October going this same 1 1/16-mile distance and has the largest morning-line odds in the field at 20-1 for trainer Kelsey Danner. Golden Tempo, the first of two Cherie DeVaux-trained entrants, won his career debut in a dirt sprint maiden special weight with Jose Ortiz, who retains the mount for the colt’s second start. The second Brad Cox entrant, Thunder Buck, scored his first win last time out at Fair Grounds going 1 1/16 miles, his first try at the route distance. Mesquite, Cherie DeVaux’s second starter, broke last but rallied over the Churchill Downs dirt to win by three-quarters of a length over fellow Lecomte rival Carson Street, who scored that aforementioned dominant maiden win in his next start. Jockey Flavien Prat, who is winning at a tremendous 34% clip so far in 2026, takes the reins on Mesquite. Brad Cox’s third entrant, White Tiger, won last out in impressive fashion after stumbling out of the gate in a 1 1/16-mile dirt route at Churchill Downs. The lone maiden (winless) runner in the field, Ocelli, is as noted above cross-entered in the eighth race on Saturday’s card at Fair Grounds and is expected to run there. Stop the Car, a second entrant trained by Brendan Walsh, earned the highest last out Equibase Speed Figure of this field, a 90 for his 3 ¾-length win at the allowance optional claiming level at Churchill in late November. Gun Runner Stakes winner Chip Honcho rounds out the field for trainer Steve Asmussen. The Connect colt has two wins and a second from three starts on his résumé.
Analysis and Main Contenders:
With morning-line odds of 8-1, Golden Tempo offers a lot of value considering we have yet to see his full potential. A son of Curlin, Golden Tempo is out of Carrumba, a 1 1/8-mile graded stakes winner on dirt and an seven-time dirt graded-stakes placed mare at distances of one mile or longer. Even though this is his first try in a route race in only his second career start, Golden Tempo has the pedigree to handle 1 1/16 miles. In his lone start, a six-furlong dirt sprint at Fair Grounds on Dec. 20, Golden Tempo broke last and was far out of contention approaching the final turn. He circled nearly seven-wide into the stretch and still rallied to win by 1 ½ lengths over Fancy Fairlane, who was five lengths clear at the sixteenth pole, in a sprint no less. Golden Tempo earned an 87 Equibase Speed Figure for that massive effort and ranks first in this field by late pace with a 106.0 rating, 10 points faster than any other contender. Over the past year, horses in graded stakes races on dirt with the highest late pace rating have won at 27% from 295 starts and hit the board at 61%, an angle that has included Nysos, Splendora, Super Corredora, Sovereignty, Baeza, Nitrogen and others. Trainer Cherie DeVaux has also been highly effective with horses moving from sprints to routes. Over the past year across all tracks, DeVaux is winning at 27% from 37 starts and has a 59% top three rate plus a 59% return on investment when making this move. Notably, Jose Ortiz has elected to stay aboard Golden Tempo. Ortiz was aboard stablemate and fellow Lecomte entrant Mesquite in both of his prior starts yet will ride Golden Tempo in the Lecomte. Over the last three years at Fair Grounds, DeVaux and Ortiz are winning at a tremendous 40% clip from 55 starts with a 56% return on investment. Golden Tempo lacks two-turn experience, but his pedigree, pace profile, and potential suggest he could take a meaningful step forward on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
White Tiger also offers value at 8-1 odds on the morning line. In his career debut in a seven-furlong dirt sprint at Churchill Downs on Sept. 19, White Tiger finished second by 7 ¼ lengths to Englishman, who has yet to run back. Then, White Tiger stretched out to 1 1/16 miles on dirt at Churchill in late October and delivered a breakout performance. After stumbling at the start, he was hustled to the front under Irad Ortiz Jr., set the pace until the sixteenth pole where he was passed on his outside, and then battled back along the rail to win by a half-length. It was an effort that showed both talent and toughness for a 2-year-old in just his second career start. White Tiger improved his Equibase Speed Figure from 77 to 86 in that victory and has major potential to move forward again in the Lecomte. Trainer Brad Cox has been highly effective with maiden winners moving up in class to the stakes level, winning at 27% from 81 starts over the past three years with a 53% top-three rate and a 48% return on investment. Cox has also excelled at Fair Grounds overall, winning at 31% from 295 starters over the last three years. It is also notable that regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. stays aboard and travels from Gulfstream Park to ride. White Tiger has shown nothing but promise in his first two starts and appears capable of handling the jump to graded stakes company.
Despite being undefeated from two starts by a combined 5½ lengths, Stop the Car also lands at an 8-1 morning line. In October, he won on debut in a six-furlong Keeneland dirt sprint at the maiden claiming $150,000 level, rallying from seventh at the third point of call to score by 1¾ lengths. In his most recent effort, Stop the Car stretched out to a one-turn mile in an allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs and sat closer to the pace before taking control at the top of the stretch and pulling away by 3 ¾ lengths. He earned a 90 Equibase figure for that performance, the highest last-out speed figure in this field. Over the past year, horses in graded stakes on dirt with the highest last-out Equibase Speed Figure are winning at a 32% clip from 301 starters and posting a 63% top-three rate with a 4% return on investment. Stop the Car also leads this field by early and middle pace ratings and ranks second in late pace with a 96.0. His work tab suggests he has remained sharp at Fair Grounds since his win, including a bullet four-furlong drill in :47.40 on Dec. 18 and a solid five-furlong work in 1:00.60 on Jan. 9. Stop the Car, who will be ridden by Ben Curtis for the first time, knows how to find the winner’s circle but will face his toughest test yet in his stakes debut and first try around two turns while stretching out a half-furlong. Nonetheless, he offers lucrative value and possesses the speed and pace profile to be competitive at this level.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures in similar races, is Quality Mischief (87), Carson Street (85), Crown the Buckeye (90), Exosome (79), Thunder Buck (87), Mesquite (84), Ocelli (85), and Chip Honcho (89).
Win Contenders in Preference Order:
Golden Tempo
White Tiger
Stop the Car
