Dornoch used his tactical speed to win the 2024 Belmont Stakes, the first of three editions held at 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga Race Course. (Eclipse Sportswire)
For the third straight year, the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets will be run at Saratoga Race Course and at the shortened distance of 1 ¼ miles. Horseplayers that follow track trends will have to adjust their handicapping accordingly because Belmont Stakes trends from past editions at Belmont Park at the traditional 1 ½-mile distance will again be irrelevant for this year’s race.
Let’s take a look at what running styles and post positions have had the most (and least) success at Saratoga at the distance of 1 ¼ miles. If you know which horses have the advantage, you may have the inside track to picking the winner and cashing your bets on the 2026 Belmont Stakes this June 6 at Saratoga.
For this analysis, we do have two apples-to-apples comparisons to look at for the Belmont Stakes run at Saratoga the last two years. Dornoch won the 2024 Belmont Stakes from post 6 in a 10-horse field after stalking the pace up close from about 1 ½ lengths off early leader Seize the Grey, who faded to finish seventh. Every horse that finished in the superfecta that year broke from the outside half of the gate. In last year’s edition of the Belmont Stakes, Sovereignty broke from post 2 in an eight-horse field and stalked the pace mid-pack about 2 ½ lengths off the lead. Dornoch was a longshot. Sovereignty was the 5-2 second choice on the tote board.
The distance of 1 ¼ miles is not a frequently used distance at Saratoga. It is normally used for the Travers Stakes and only a handful of other races, plus the last two Belmont Stakes. In order to get a sample size big enough to draw some conclusions for the distance at “The Spa,” let’s go all the way back to the year 2000 from the present.
It is beneficial to be on or near the lead at 1 1/4 miles at the Spa. (Eclipse Sportswire)
There have been a total of 39 dirt races run at 1 ¼ miles at Saratoga since 2000. The primary track trend that jumps out at you the most in these races is that closers are an awful bet at the distance. Horses coming from four or more lengths off the pace won only five of the 39 races at the distance since 2000 to account for only 13%. The best running style has been stalkers, as defined by horses racing between one and four lengths off the pace. Stalkers won 49% of the races (19 wins). Speed horses racing on or close to the pace within a length of the lead have done well, too. They’ve won 15 of the 39 races to account for 38%.
For the speed horses, success has gone hand in hand with post positions because almost all of the speed horses that have won at 1 ¼ miles at Saratoga the last 25 years have come from posts 1-3. Speed horses from the inside posts have won 15 times at the distance, and 12 of those winners came from posts 1-3. So, you probably should only consider betting a Belmont Stakes speed horse to win if it is starting from one of the inside posts. Post-position draw doesn’t seem to have a great impact on success for stalkers and closers in the same way it seems to make a difference for speed horses.
Looking at the 1 ¼-mile post position stats, 20 of the last 39 races at the distance (51%) have been won by horses breaking from the three inside posts. Winners from posts 1-3 have far outperformed winners from the middle posts 4-6 (13 wins, 33% of the races) and outside posts 7+ (6 wins, 15%).
Emerging Market could benefit from being closer to the pace. (Hodges Photography)
If we apply these trends to this year’s Belmont Stakes field, you can make a legitimate case for an upset by Powershift, at least in the trifectas, because he figures to set the pace from post 2, which is a double advantage. Chief Wallabee has some degree of tactical speed it seems, and from post 3 without much pace in this year’s Belmont Stakes, he could really benefit from a more aggressive running style strategy by staying up closer to the pace. Maybe he can.
All eyes will be on the headline showdown between Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve winner Golden Tempo and Derby runner-up Renegade, but they are both closers who probably will not enjoy a favorable pace setup at a track and distance that also won’t favor them. Both have closing running styles that are not particularly well-suited for 1 ¼ miles at Saratoga.
Finally, if you watch Emerging Market’s Tampa Bay Downs maiden win over Powershift and his win in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, you will see that he’s a horse that can probably race a few lengths off the lead in the Belmont Stakes if asked to, and he can launch a much earlier move and get the jump on the numerous other closers in the race.
2026 Belmont S. Presented by NYRA Bets June 6th, 2026
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