Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money. Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

Six Beginner Betting Tools

1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you
3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

Saturday, March 28

This Saturday is one of the signature days of spring racing on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve with the runnings of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa both taking the spotlight. For this weekend’s winners, let’s delve into these two headline events for 3-year-olds and see if we can make some money betting these potentially chalky races to go along with bragging rights for picking the winners. Best of luck and enjoy a great Saturday of racing and wagering from Oaklawn Park and Gulfstream Park.

Gulfstream Park, Race 14, $1 million Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa, 6:42 p.m. ET

The Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park will feature a standout eight-horse field set to compete at 1 1/8 miles on the Road to the Kentucky Derby in perhaps the most anticipated race out of all the Derby prep races run so far this season (Redland Rebels will be scratched to run in Arkansas Derby). #6 Nearly turned more than a few heads with his impressive Jan. 31 victory in Gulfstream Park’s Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes and skipped the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes in order to be pointed directly to this race. He was able to fend off pressure and still finish strong and win big with a fast speed figure in the Holy Bull, and he’ll be tough to beat with another similar effort here. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Florida Derby a record eight times, and jockey John Velazquez has won a record six times, including four prior occasions when the pair teamed up to win this race, most recently with Fierceness in 2024. If Nearly is going to win, he’s going to have to fend off a firing line of stretch challengers including ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby winner #9 The Puma, and #4 Commandment and #2 Chief Wallabee, who finished first and second last time in Gulfstream’s Fountain of Youth. All three of those will have legitimate chances to score the win and none of them would be a surprise. The Puma beat Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes winner Further Ado in the Tampa Bay Derby to mark himself as a contender. Chief Wallabee beat The Puma in a Gulfstream maiden race earlier at this meet and then finished second by a neck in the Fountain of Youth in just his second career race. He stands to improve in this race in his third lifetime start for 2025 Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. Commandment beat Chief Wallabee in the Fountain of Youth and also won Gulfstream’s Mucho Macho Man Stakes this winter. It’s going to be a heckuva race. Let’s take a stand with Nearly to get a jump on the late runners and hold them all off to win. We’ll key him in trifectas above the others.

The Play: Bet on #9 Nearly (3-1) to win and key him in trifectas on top of #2 Chief Wallabee (2-1), #4 Commandment (5-2), and #9 The Puma (9-2).

Oaklawn Park, Race 13, $1.5 million Arkansas Derby, 7:48 p.m. ET

Renegade wins Sam F. Davis Stakes (Eclipse Sportswire)

The Oaklawn Park road to the Kentucky Derby culminates Saturday with the running of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. A field of eight 3-year-olds is expected to compete in the 1 1/8-mile feature event with a rich purse of $1.5 million (#7 Napoleon Solo will be scratched to run in next week’s Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino at Aqueduct). The field is led by #6 Renegade, who exits a win in the $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs in his last start when he beat a solid field that included next-out Tampa Bay Derby winner The Puma. As a 2-year-old, Renegade was nearly the equal of leading Kentucky Derby contender Paladin when they faced each other in New York, first beating Paladin but suffering a questionable DQ in a maiden race and then running second to Paladin in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes. Renegade looked even better in his 3-year-old debut at Tampa last time and now should mean serious business in his second start of the season for trainer Todd Pletcher with jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. making the trip to Oaklawn to maintain the mount. The best of the winter Oaklawn contingent in this field is #2 Silent Tactic, who won the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes and finished second by a nose in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes behind Class President last time out. Silent Tactic had dead aim on the winner but appeared to hang in the stretch in the Rebel. One of the big questions in this Arkansas Derby is whether he can finish stronger this Saturday. Maybe he can, but will it be enough to beat Renegade? #3 Blackout Time faded badly to finish fourth in the Rebel last time but perhaps he needed the race in his comeback from a five-month layoff. He finished second behind 2-year-old champion Ted Noffey in a Grade 1 race last fall and has a legitimate chance at a positive turnaround if able to move forward in this second start off the layoff.

The Play: Bet on #6 Renegade (3-2) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes along with #2 Silent Tactic (5-2) and #3 Blackout Time (6-1).