The 75^th running of the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa Saturday at Gulfstream Park drew a competitive field. Contested at a 1 1/8-mile distance, the Florida Derby has historically produced more Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve winners than any other prep race, with 26 of them having come out of this race since its inaugural running in 1952. Last year, Sovereignty finished runner-up in this race before going on to win the run for the roses, the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets, and the DraftKings Travers Stakes en route to receiving Horse of the Year honors. With a total of 200 qualifying points (100-50-25-15-10) and a $1 million purse on the line, the Florida Derby once again serves as a pivotal stop on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Here’s a look at the field from the rail (inside) post position out:

Albus drew the inside post for trainer Riley Mott with Tyler Gaffalione aboard for the first time. The Yaupon colt won his first race by 6 ¾ lengths in his third, finishing just 1.77 seconds slower than the Tampa Bay Downs track record for a mile and forty yards on the dirt. Chief Wallabee won his career debut by 1 ½ lengths over Florida Derby foe The Puma in his career debut and then just missed by a neck when second in the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes to another rival in this race, Commandment. The Constitution colt will be making his third consecutive start over Gulfstream’s dirt track for trainer Bill Mott with regular rider Junior Alvarado back aboard. In his 2-year-old campaign, Wayne’s Law dominated the Aventura Stakes racing a one-turn mile at Gulfstream Park in September. The Tiz the Law colt has yet to find the winner’s circle since; however, he finished runner-up last time out at odds of 48.2-1 in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs (behind Arkansas Derby contender Renegade but ahead of The Puma). He’s trained by Amador Merie Sanchez and Marcos Meneses retains the mount. Commandment is fresh off a hard-fought victory in the Fountain of Youth Feb. 28 on this track. The Into Mischief colt is going for his fourth consecutive win and third at the track for trainer Brad Cox, with Flavien Prat getting the mount as regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. will be at Oaklawn Park on Saturday. Redland Rebels is cross-entered in the Arkansas Derby Saturday and according to a report in Daily Racing Form will start in that race. Nearly has won his last three starts by a combined winning margin of 20 lengths, including a 5 ¾ length victory last time out in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream at the end of January. The son of Not This Time is trained by Todd Pletcher and will have regular rider John Velazquez back in the irons. Timeless Victory will make his seventh consecutive start at Gulfstream Park for trainer Edward Plesa Jr. with Jose Morales retaining the mount; he will be Plesa’s last starter before the trainer retires. The By My Standards colt finished a distant third to Nearly in an allowance optional claiming race on Jan. 2 before dominating by six lengths in his next start at the same level when trying two turns for the first time March 1. The Puma earned his first victory last time out in the ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby, which was his third career start for trainer Gustavo Delgado. Javier Castellano retains the mount. Gregarious, the one maiden in the field, drew the far outside post position for trainer Jose Castro with a jockey switch to Rajiv Maragh. The Mo Town colt finished runner-up in his lone career start, a two-turn maiden special weight race at Gulfstream Feb. 21.

Analysis and Main Contenders:

Nearly has a great opportunity to win his fourth consecutive race and second consecutive graded stakes for the Hall of Fame duo of Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez. The dark bay or brown Florida-bred colt started his career as a 2-year-old in October at Belmont at the Big A, finishing a distant last in a dirt sprint. He then shipped to Gulfstream about a month later and really came into his own, dominating a state-bred maiden special weight race by 9 ¼ lengths and improving his Equibase Speed Figure from a 57 to 86 with Velazquez aboard for the first time. Nearly and Velazquez continued their affinity together when stretching out to seven furlongs at the allowance optional claiming level Jan. 2, winning by five lengths while again improving to a career-best 92 Equibase Figure. Timeless Victory, the third-place finisher in that race and fellow Florida Derby contender, came back to win by six lengths in his next start at the same level. Almost a month later, Nearly was faced with his first two-turn test at the graded stakes level in the Holy Bull Stakes and passed with flying colors. He dueled for the lead with quick fractions of 22.82 and 45.96 for the half-mile in the 1 1/16-mile race and kicked clear in the stretch to dominate by 5 ¾ lengths, earning a 90 Equibase Figure. Incredibolt, who finished last in the Holy Bull, came back to win the Virginia Derby Presented by New Kent County by four lengths in his next start, adding to the quality of Nearly’s win. Historically, the Holy Bull has served as an excellent prep for the Florida Derby, producing 15 winners since 1991, including Fierceness (2024) and Tappan Street (2025). While Nearly has not run since Jan. 31, he has been training tremendously well at Palm Beach Downs and he has the pedigree to stretch out to this 1 1/8-mile distance. In the past three years, progeny of Not This Time have 14 graded stakes wins in dirt routes at 1 1/16 miles or more. Furthermore, the proven success of Pletcher and Velazquez in graded stakes cannot be ignored. Over the past five years, Pletcher and Velazquez win at an incredible 32% in dirt route Grade 1 stakes and finish in the top three at a 57% rate with a 48% return on investment. Nearly is going into the Florida Derby in winning form, has a 3-for-3 record over the Gulfstream dirt, very strong connections, and he’s already passed the two-turn-test. Add those up, and this colt has a big chance at finding the winner’s circle once again on Saturday.  

Commandment after the Fountain of Youth. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Commandment is also going for a fourth consecutive win and second at the graded level. The Into Mischief colt started his career in October at Keeneland, finishing fourth in a six-furlong dirt sprint before winning his second career start by 5 ¼ lengths when stretching out a furlong at Churchill Downs, improving from a 76 Equibase Speed Figure to an 80. Commandment took a two-month layoff and returned as a 3-year-old in January at Gulfstream Park in the one-turn mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes where was ridden out to a 6 ¾ length victory, earning a 93 Equibase Figure with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard for the first time. Then in his next race, Commandment earned his third consecutive increasing Equibase Figure – a 99 – for a narrow victory over Chief Wallabee in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, his two-turn debut. While Ortiz Jr. seemingly gets the best out of Commandment, as mentioned he will be at Oaklawn on Saturday and Flavien Prat, a more than suitable replacement, gets the mount. Brad Cox and Prat win at 27% in dirt route graded stakes together over the past three years (16-for-60). Commandment’s 99 Equibase figure in the Fountain of Youth is tied for the highest last-out speed figure in this race and he is also tied for first in late pace with a 108.5 rating. Historically over the past year, horses in all dirt route stakes races with the highest last out Equibase figure and late pace rating win at 31% from 590 starts. Commandment has been training forwardly since his last start as well, including posting a bullet five-furlong work in 1:01.80 March 21 at Palm Meadows. Based on his upward trending speed figures, ability to finish strong around two turns, and accomplished connections, Commandment looks the part in this race and has a solid opportunity to win or finish in the top three.

While he was second-best by just a neck in the Fountain of Youth, Chief Wallabee has a tremendous amount of potential for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. Chief Wallabee debuted as a 3-year-old at Gulfstream in a seven-furlong dirt sprint and was confidently ridden by Junior Alvarado, winning by 1 ½ lengths over eventual Tampa Bay Derby winner The Puma, who finished 9 ¼ lengths clear of the rest of the field. Chief Wallabee earned a 91 Equibase Speed Figure for that debut performance and improved that figure to a 99 in the Fountain of Youth with an impressive effort in his two-turn test. The Constitution colt is tied with Commandment in both average speed and late pace, which applies to the same 31%-win percentage for horses in all dirt route stakes races with both of those attributes. Following the Fountain of Youth, Chief Wallabee fired a 49-second flat four-furlong work at Payson Park and went five furlongs in 1:02.20 in his most recent breeze March 21. If Chief Wallabee can live up to his potential or even run a similar effort as his last start, he could very well find the winner’s circle on Saturday to give Bill Mott his first career Florida Derby victory.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures in similar races, is Albus (87), Wayne’s Law (94), Redland Rebels (90), Timeless Victory (83), The Puma (95), and Gregarious (72).

Win Contenders in Preference Order:

Nearly

Commandment

Chief Wallabee