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Noel’s Weekend Winners: Prime Saturday Plays ‘Where the Turf Meets the Surf’
GamblingWelcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money. Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.
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The headline day of the Del Mar summer meet has finally arrived with the $1 million Pacific Classic Stakes anchoring a terrific 11-race card “where the turf meets the surf.” America’s Best Racing staff trifecta selections for the featured race are posted separately on the ABR website, but for this weekend’s winners, let’s take a look at two of the other great stakes races on Saturday’s program. If we can combine profits from some undercard best bets along with winning wagers on the Pacific Classic, we should be well on our way to a big day at Del Mar. Best of luck.
Saturday, Aug. 22
Del Mar, Race 5, $200,000 Green Flash Handicap Presented by Longines, post time 7 p.m. ET
The Grade 2 Green Flash Handicap has drawn a field of 10 turf sprinters ready to dash five furlongs and the race is a Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. The horse that has become synonymous with this race in recent years is #6 Motorious, who has won the Green Flash three straight times leading to fifth-, second-, and fifth-place finishes in the last three Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprints. He’s got a prep race for this under his belt and will be impossible to ignore based on his record in this race, even as the favorite. Speed and the rail can be deadly in a five-furlong turf sprint and there’s a real possibility that #1 Monster could get the lead and go all the way. Monster is the speed of the speed here, and after just barely getting caught late going 5 ½ furlongs last time in the Grade 3 Quick Call Stakes Presented by the Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation at Saratoga, he will be extremely dangerous going only five furlongs in the Green Flash. That said, let’s go with a mild upset with #3 Man O Rose, a California-bred who has yet to fully commit to a career as a turf sprinter but seems equally adept on grass as he is on dirt. Man O Rose is a 12-time winner in his career with six stakes wins including one against open company two races ago. He’s coming back without a prep after five months on the sidelines, but some of his best career efforts to date have come when he’s fresh off a layoff. Man O Rose will be hot on the heels of Monster and will have dead aim on that potentially tiring opponent in the late stages in what shapes up to be a great race.
The Play: Bet on #3 Man O Rose (5-1 morning-line odds) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes along with #1 Monster (15-1) and #6 Motorious (5-2).
Del Mar, Race 11, $300,000 Del Mar Mile Stakes, post time 10 p.m. ET
Saturday’s nightcap at Del Mar will be the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile with a 12-horse field ready to do battle on the turf. I believe the horse to beat in a highly competitive field is #12 El Potente, who unfortunately is drawn out in the parking lot in post 12. He has won three of his last four turf mile races, which include consecutive runnings of Santa Anita Park’s Grade 3 Thunder Road Stakes and a good second by a half a length last time in the Grade 2 Frank E. Kilroe Mile. We’ll still include El Potente in exactas and trifectas while we see if he can overcome the wide post. The pick to win therefore will be #7 Almendares, who exits a loss in Del Mar’s Grade 2 Eddie Read Stakes where he was at a disadvantage chasing #1 Cabo Spirit who got away with murder up front on a solo pace. The makeup of this field could result in a much more contested pace from horses like #10 Flyover, #4 Freedom’s Not Free, and maybe even #9 King of Gosford. Almendares was forced into a dirty-work type of trip in the paceless Eddie Read but he has the ability to turn the tables in a more familiar closing role based on his good form from earlier this year when he won Santa Anita’s Grade 3 American Stakes and finished second behind only Formidable Man in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile. The other must-use horse to include in Del Mar Mile wagers is the aforementioned King of Gosford, a multiple graded stakes-winning turf miler who signaled a positive turnaround in form last time with a win in the $100,000 Wickerr Stakes at this course and distance.
The Play: Bet on #7 Almendares (6-1) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes with #9 King of Gosford (5-1), and #12 El Potente (7-2).