The $500,000, Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes for 3-year-old fillies Saturday at Saratoga features the third meeting between a pair of millionaires in May Day Ready and Nitrogen. Combined, they have earned nearly $2.2 million by winning eight of 14 races with a 7-for-12 record on turf.
Both of these talented fillies have earned wins in Grade 2 stakes – May Day Ready in the Jessamine Stakes Presented by Keeneland Sales last October and Nitrogen in both the Appalachian Stakes Presented by Japan Racing Association in April and the Edgewood Stakes Presented by Accenture in May. Those latter two stakes are part of a five-race win streak for Nitrogen in 2025. Fionn won the Grade 3 Regret Stakes in May, and Totally Justified finished a half-length back in second, and both of these fillies may also fit at this level. Opulent Restraint finished second by a neck in the Memories of Silver Stakes when last seen in April, and Virgin Colada checked in 1 ½ lengths back in third in that race. Previously, Virgin Colada finished second in the Grade 2 Miss Grillo Stakes last October. Warming rounds out the field, having finished fifth of nine in her only stakes try. That came in the Take the A Train Stakes in May and preceded a strong win in an allowance-level race last month.
Analysis and top contenders:
The first time May Day Ready and Nitrogen faced each other was in the John Deere Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last November. May Day Ready went to post at 13.90-1 odds based on her winning the Jessamine Stakes one month earlier, which was her third straight win in three career starts. Nitrogen went to post at 49.60-1 odds, owing to the fact she was still a maiden with two starts under her belt. Nitrogen had missed by a neck in her career debut at a mile on grass in August and then finished third in the Johnnie Walker Natalma Stakes in September. In the Juvenile Fillies Turf, May Day Ready rallied from 12th of 14 at the start to finish second, 1 ½ lengths behind European invader and 7-10 favorite Lake Victoria. Nitrogen rallied from 12th after three quarters of a mile to get third, one length behind May Day Ready. For those efforts, May Day Ready earned a 111 Equibase Speed Figure while Nitrogen earned a 110 figure.
After the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, May Day Ready travelled halfway across the world to compete in the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies Stakes in Japan, finishing 13th of 18 when well-regarded at 8.20-1 odds. She then took six months off and returned in the Wonder Again Stakes four weeks ago at Saratoga. The race was scheduled for grass but run on dirt – and after scratches, only three horses ran. Nitrogen won that race by 17 lengths over runner-up Bessie Abbott, with May Day Ready another eight lengths back. However, May Day Ready needed the race following six months off, and her effort shouldn’t be used to assess her chances to win the Belmont Oaks Invitational as it is obvious her connections were always pointing for this race and using the Wonder Again as a prep. Considering the talent she displayed last summer and fall and that she beat Nitrogen when they competed on grass in the Breeders’ Cup, May Day Ready gets slight preference in terms of probability to win this year’s Belmont Oaks Invitational.
After her start in the Juvenile Fillies Turf last fall, Nitrogen has won five races in a row, all stakes, including the Appalachian Stakes this past April where she earned a 108 Equibase Speed Figure that’s pretty close to the 110 figure she earned in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Returning one month later in the Edgewood Stakes, Nitrogen won easily by 3 ½ lengths, earning a 99 figure which could have been higher had she needed to run harder. Next came the Wonder Again, where Nitrogen stalked the pacesetter for the first half-mile and then took over and coasted home with a 105 figure. She certainly could have run faster than that as she was geared down in the stretch, and if she improves back to the form shown last fall, we could see quite a battle between her and May Day Ready in this race.
Totally Justified missed by a nose to May Day Ready last fall in the Jessamine Stakes but ran poorly when eighth in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf at odds of 47-1. Following five months off, she returned in the Appalachian Stakes and faded to fifth after pressing the pace in second during the early stages of the race. Then, she returned to competitive form last month when finishing second in the Regret Stakes, run at the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Belmont Oaks Invitational. In the Regret, Totally Justified moved up from third to second after three-quarters of a mile and then made the lead with an eighth of a mile to run, before being passed by Fionn and ending up second, beaten a half-length. As Saturday’s race will be her third start off a layoff, Totally Justified is going to be tougher to pass in the stretch than last time, and so she can improve enough off that 105-figure effort to likely have a say in the outcome as well.
Fionn earned a career best 106 figure when winning the Regret Stakes last month. She has now won four of six races and has a shot to run similarly well in the Belmont Oaks. On the other hand, when considering the Regret was a Grade 3 race and that May Day Ready and Nitrogen are Grade 2 stakes winners and that Totally Justified missed by a nose in a Grade 2 race (the Jessamine) last fall and should also improve Saturday, I think Fionn is just a cut below the top trio.
The rest of the field, with their best figures is Opulent Restraint (97), Virgin Colada (98) and Warming (97).
Win contenders in probability order:
May Day Ready
Nitrogen
Totally Justified
