The $600,000, Grade 3 Bryan Station Stakes Saturday is the second-to-last graded stakes race of the 2025 Keeneland fall meet, and the one-mile turf race for 3-year-olds has attracted a full field of 12 along with three also-eligibles on Saturday. With a lukewarm 9-2 morning-line favorite, this year’s edition promises to have a lot of competitive intrigue and several contenders with wagering value.
Notably, seven of the dozen entrants in the main body of the field are sired by Not This Time. Mesero drew the rail post for trainer Dale Romans and has a prior win at this distance and on this course. Golden Afternoon is fresh off a runner-up performance in the Grade 1 Ainsworth Franklin-Simpson Stakes at Kentucky Downs and looks to repeat the 108 Equibase Speed Figure he earned last time out for trainer Nicholas Vaccarezza. Antisocial is also coming out of the Franklin-Simpson where he earned a career best 105 Equibase Figure as he finished fourth by just two lengths. Troubleshooting won the Franklin-Simpson over three Bryan Station entrants and earned the highest last-out Equibase Figure in this field, a 109. Final Gambit, the fourth-place finisher in this year’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, will be making his fourth consecutive start on turf for trainer Brad Cox, and he’ll have Luan Machado back in the saddle for the first time since the Derby. Dream On finished fifth by just 2 ¼ lengths to Henri Matisse in last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and will be trying to find the winner’s circle following out-of-the-money finishes in his last two starts.
Game Warrior has both of his career wins at this mile distance on turf for trainer Peter Miller. He made his first start outside of California in his lead-in race, finishing sixth by just 3 ½ lengths in the Grade 2 Jockey Club Derby Invitational Stakes at Belmont at the Big A earlier in October. Tenacious Leader was sidelined for a year after his bid in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity in 2024 and won an allowance race going 1 1/16 miles on turf during Keeneland’s opening-day card of this meet. John Velazquez, who’s already tallied five graded stakes wins this Keeneland meet, will be back aboard for trainer Todd Pletcher. Grade 2 Secretariat Stakes winner Giocoso is the 9-2 morning-line favorite for trainer Keith Desormeaux. He narrowly missed winning in his most recent start, running a game second to Bryan Station entrant Plensa in the Gun Runner Stakes at Kentucky Downs. Simulate is looking for his first win at the graded stakes level following a runner-up finish to Giocoso in the Secretariat and a seventh last time out in the Grade 3 DK Horse Nashville Derby Invitational Stakes at Kentucky Downs. Rusty Arnold trainee Gun Runner Stakes winner Plensa has two wins and a second at this mile distance over the turf. Barring no scratches, Salamis rounds out the field and is fresh off consecutive wins, including a last-out score in the Gio Ponti Stakes at Belmont at the Big A. Three also-eligibles are entered: Day and Age, Calvin’s Ride, and Jimmy’s Dailys. Jimmy’s Dailys, stakes-placed on dirt, would make his first career start on turf if he draws into the field.
Analysis and main contenders:
Tenacious Leader enters the Bryan Station as one of the most lightly raced runners in the field, making just his sixth career start. After finishing fifth in his career debut as a 2-year-old in a dirt sprint at Saratoga, the Not This Time colt quickly showcased his ability, dominating his second start by 4 ¾ lengths in a one-mile race that was taken off the turf at Saratoga. He then stepped up in class for his turf debut in the Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes, where he showed tremendous grit, battling between horses to finish a game second by a neck to Zulu Kingdom, who went on to win multiple graded stakes including a Grade 1. Despite that strong effort on turf, Tenacious Leader’s connections opted to start him in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland going 1 1/6 miles on dirt, where a bump at the break compromised his trip and led to a sixth-place finish. He then was away from racing for 364 days, resurfacing on opening day of this Keeneland meet with a sharp allowance win going 1 1/16 miles on the turf that earned him a 105 Equibase Speed Figure. His connections have been red-hot at Keeneland in recent meets. Over the past year (spanning three meets), the Hall of Fame duo of Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez have teamed up to win 38% (5-for-13) and finish 54% in-the-money with an 18% ROI (return on investment). Tenacious Leader is ranked second among the field in late pace rating (114.0), and he looks primed to take a big step forward at morning-line odds of 12-1 in his second start off the layoff.
Salamis will also make his sixth career start. This Speightstown colt is a half-brother to Segesta, a multiple graded stakes winner on turf, and he has shown steady progression since his debut. After beginning his career on dirt with a fourth-place finish as the 8-5 favorite at Aqueduct last November, Salamis found his stride when switched to the turf, posting back-to-back third-place efforts in route races at Gulfstream Park and Keeneland. In that Keeneland effort, he finished just behind World Beater, who has since gone on to win three stakes. Returning to New York for his fourth career start, Salamis scored his first career win impressively at Saratoga going one mile on turf. He followed that up with a determined victory in the listed Gio Ponti Stakes at Belmont at the Big A, again racing one mile on turf, earning a career-best 102 Equibase Speed Figure. Flavien Prat, who was aboard Salamis for both of those wins, retains the mount for trainer Chad Brown. While Prat is winning at 11% during the Keeneland meet, his broader turf statistics remain elite, as he wins at 27% overall in turf routes and 26% in turf route graded stakes over the past year. Salamis returns to Kentucky in top form, posting two wins and a third from three starts at this one-mile distance on grass. Listed at 6-1 on the morning line, he offers both strong form and attractive value.
Giocoso is another Not This Time colt and will be making his 12th career start. He notched his first win in his third career start by a dominant 6 ¼ lengths at Ellis Park going 1 1/16 miles on turf. Giocoso followed that up with a third-place finish in last year’s Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes on dirt at Churchill Downs before making his first start on Keeneland’s turf, finishing sixth in the Grade 2 Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes. Giocoso ended his 2-year-old campaign with a November 2024 allowance win at Churchill in a turf route. As a 3-year-old, he faced some early challenges on other surfaces, finishing last in the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes on dirt at Fair Grounds and then fifth to Bryan Station entrant Final Gambit in the Jeff Ruby Steaks on an all-weather track at Turfway Park. He then took a short layoff and came back in May to run in the ultra-competitive Grade 1 American Turf Stakes Presented by Ford at Churchill, where he finished fifth behind Zulu Kingdom. Despite that out-of-the-money finish, Giocoso gained from the experience and came right back to win the Secretariat Stakes over Bryan Station entrants Simulate, Antisocial and Dream On. Last time out in the Gun Runner Stakes, he finished second to Plensa, a colt he’ll face again in the Bryan Station. Giocoso has finished first twice and second once racing one mile on turf and has proven he can beat fellow rivals at the graded stakes level. Jockey Ben Curtis, who’s been aboard for the last three starts, retains the mount once again and appears to have found the key to getting Giocoso’s best efforts.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figure in similar races, is Mesero (98), Golden Afternoon (108), Antisocial (105), Troubleshooting (109), Final Gambit (106), Dream On (112), Game Warrior (104), Simulate (102), Plensa (102), Day and Age (AE) (106), Calvin’s Ride (AE) (105), and Jimmy’s Dailys (AE) (105).
Win contenders in preference order:
Tenacious Leader
Salamis
Giocoso
