The Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve continues this Saturday with the 45th running of the $200,000 Los Alamitos Futurity, which offers 10 qualifying Derby points to the winner. Last year’s Futurity winner, Journalism, finished runner-up in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets and won the Preakness Stakes.
This year’s edition at Los Alamitos drew a field of six – here’s a look at the field from starting with Acknowledgemeplz who drew the inside (rail) post position. This runner has won and finished second in two career starts and will make his stakes debut in the Los Al Futurity. Provenance, the first foal out of two-time Eclipse Award champion Monomoy Girl, drew post 2 for trainer Bob Baffert with Kyle Frey assigned to ride for the first time. Provenance’s stablemate Litmus Test drew to his outside and enters the races as the most seasoned 2-year-old of the group, making his fourth consecutive graded stakes bid. Blacksmith is Baffert’s third entry and will be making his third career start having finished second and fifth previously. American King is also winless in two starts and will move back to dirt for trainer Ruben Gomez after trying turf in his most recent outing and finishing fourth. Captivator rounds out the field and is coming off a dominant 10 ½ length victory in a six-furlong race at Del Mar on Nov. 8 for trainer John Sadler, with Hector Berrios retaining the mount.
Analysis and Main Contenders:
Provenance exudes class, and he proved it last time out with a determined 1 ¾ length victory in a six-furlong maiden special weight race at Santa Anita Park. Leading into his career debut back on Aug. 23, Provenance was the subject of plenty of buzz and was a heavy favorite, and rightfully so as the first foal out of Monomoy Girl. In that race, Provenance showed some greenness in the stretch, finishing third by four lengths to Intrepido, who came back to win the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes Presented by DK Horse in his next start. Provenance gained valuable experience from that two-turn mile race and showcased his true potential next time out in his maiden win when cutting back in distance. Provenance’s sire, Into Mischief, won this race in 2007, and his pedigree suggests he can compete at the highest level in dirt routes. Over the last three years, progeny of Into Mischief are winning at 30% in stakes races when trying a dirt route for the second time, posting 10 wins from 33 starts and finishing in the money 55% of the time with a strong 52% return on investment. Provenance now stretches out from six furlongs to 1 1/16 miles in the Futurity, and trainer Bob Baffert is winning at an impressive 32% clip over the last three years with horses going from sprints to routes on dirt. Based on his improvement, class, pedigree, and sharp workouts at Santa Anita, Provenance has every chance to shine in his first start against stakes company.
Litmus Test ranks first in nearly every category in this field. He leads all entrants in early, middle and late pace rating with a massive 121.0 and also tops the charts in average class and average speed. The seasoned 2-year-old Nyquist colt has made three consecutive Grade 1 starts coming into this race. He finished fourth in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity in September held at seven furlongs before running third behind undefeated Ted Noffey in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland and fourth to Ted Noffey again in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA last time out at Del Mar, with both of those races run at the same 1 1/16-mile distance he’ll try Saturday. Litmus Test finished strongly in the Juvenile last time out, ending up just 1 ¾ lengths behind Ted Noffey while earning a 111 Equibase Speed Figure at odds of 21.70-1. Although he has faced tough company throughout, this colt’s lone win came on career debut in a 5 ½-furlong dirt sprint at Del Mar in August. Repeating a 111 Equibase figure is no easy task for any 2-year-old, but he should benefit greatly from this drop in class. Juan Hernandez will be aboard for the first time since Litmus Test’s maiden victory, which is a significant positive considering Hernandez appeared to have the choice among all three Bob Baffert-trained entrants. Adding to that, Baffert and Hernandez are winning at an extraordinary 59% together in all races at Los Alamitos over the last three years, with 22 wins from 37 starts and 89% in-the-money (finishing in the top three) rate with a positive 12 percent return on investment. Litmus Test checks every box and will likely attract plenty of wagering support.
Acknowledgemeplz has only run in maiden races but has still gained experience against tougher company. On career debut in June in a five-furlong dirt sprint at Santa Anita, Acknowledgemeplz finished second by 2 ¼ lengths to Desert Gate, who dominated the Grade 3 Best Pal Stakes by 8 ¾ lengths in his next start before going on to run second in both the Del Mar Futurity and the American Pharoah Stakes. Proletariat, who finished third behind Acknowledgemeplz in that maiden race, came back to win his next start and has since finished in the money in two Grade 3 races. After a layoff of more than four months, Acknowledgemeplz returned in October at Santa Anita Park led from start to finish when winning a 6 ½ furlong maiden race by three quarters of a length. He improved his Equibase figure from 83 to 93. The Bucchero ridgling is trained by Doug O’Neill and has Armando Ayuso assigned to ride for the first time Saturday. This will be Acknowledgemeplz’s first attempt going two turns and first start since his maiden victory in October, but he ranks second in average speed with an 88 Equibase Speed Figure and has a very good chance to hit the board on Saturday.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures in similar races is, Blacksmith (91), American King (87) and Captivator (88).
Win Contenders in Preference Order:
Provenance
Litmus Test
Acknowledgemeplz
