Noel’s Weekend Winners: Stakes Strategy for Cigar Mile Day

Gambling
Remsen Stakes, Cigar Mile Handicap, Aqueduct, America's Best Racing, horse racing, ABR
Horses leave the starting gate on Cigar Mile Handicap day in 2024 at Aqueduct. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money. Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.


Six Beginner Betting Tools

  1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
  2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you
  3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
  4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
  5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
  6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

Saturday, Dec. 6

New York racing’s fall schedule comes to its peak this weekend with Cigar Mile Handicap day at Aqueduct, featuring a program of four graded stakes races plus a pair of half-million dollar stakes for state-breds. For this weekend’s winners, let’s delve into two of the headline races on Aqueduct’s Saturday card including the $500,000 Cigar Mile Handicap and the $250,000 Remsen Stakes for 2-year-olds. If we can pick the winners of these two features, we will be well on our way to a big day at the Big A. Best of luck.

Aqueduct, Race 9, $250,000 Remsen Stakes, post time 3:08 p.m. ET

Talkin, Remsen Stakes, Aqueduct, America's Best Racing, horse racing, ABR
Talkin wins career debut Aug. 30 at Saratoga. (Coglianese Photos)

A full 12-horse field of 2-year-old takes to the track looking for the on ramp on the road to next year’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve in Saturday’s Grade 2 Remsen Stakes. It’s a wide-open race and it could come down to which of these juveniles is not only the most talented and precocious but also who best handles this extended 1 1/8-mile distance test around two turns. The horse in the race with perhaps the best credentials so far is #11 Talkin, who worked hard to win his seven-furlong career debut at Saratoga in an effort that looks even better now that the third-place finisher from that race, Further Ado, came back to break his maiden by 20 lengths at Keeneland and then went on to win the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. Talkin followed up the maiden win with a second in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes going a mile last time behind promising winner Napolean Solo while ahead of third-place Universe, who came back to be second in the aforementioned Kentucky Jockey Club. He’s kept top-notch company and held his own, and this race seems like his time to shine despite the wide post position. The main threat appears to be #7 Igniter, who stretched out to a mile last time for trainer Rick Dutrow and won his second start in fine fashion in a key race that included next-out maiden winners Rebel Instinct and #6 Courting, who graduated at odds of 0.19-1 over a field that included #4 Grittiness. Other top challengers include both #2 Paladin and #9 Renegade, who ran their eyeballs out in a Belmont at the Big A maiden race in which Renegade prevailed and did not appear to do enough to warrant his disqualification back to second. Renegade was the horse with the tougher trip in that race, and he rates a slight edge here over Paladin from an outside post that actually should benefit his running style better than his inside draw last time.

The Play: Bet on #11 Talkin (5-1) to win and play him in exacta boxes along with #7 Igniter (6-1), and #9 Renegade (5-1). Play a four-horse trifecta box by adding #2 Paladin (3-1) to the bet along with the top three selections.

weekend Television schedule

Thursday, Dec. 4: 12:30-4:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Friday, Dec. 5: 12:30-4:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Saturday, Dec. 6: 11 a.m.-2 p.m. on FS1; 2-5 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Sunday, Dec. 7: 12:30-1 p.m. on FS1; 1-4:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Aqueduct, Race 10, $500,000 Cigar Mile Handicap, post time 3:37 p.m. ET

The Grade 2 Cigar Mile Handicap lacks star power this year but the race has drawn a competitive seven-horse field and is certainly worth a bet or two. Much of the attention on the tote board will be focused on the two speedy horses on the outside: #6 Phileas Fogg and #7 Bishops Bay, who are obvious contenders. Both, however, could get embroiled in a salty pace situation up front along with another probable front-runner in #2 Mika. With all those horses potentially sending for the lead, the race could set up for a come-from-behind winner and the perfect candidate for that is #4 Crazy Mason, a stone closer who will get a great pace to chase and an added furlong to work with after posting good results at seven furlongs this year, including a win in the Grade 2 Carter Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets, a second in the Grade 3 Vosburgh Stakes Presented by Army Mule, and a third in the Grade 1 Forego Stakes in a solid but unheralded campaign so far. Irad Ortiz Jr. picks up the mount. Phileas Fogg adds blinkers and Joel Rosario to gear up for this cutback in distance to one mile after racing two turns at longer distances this year to date. He beat Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Antiquarian and last year’s Cigar Mile winner Locked in the 1 ¼-mile Suburban Stakes Presented by Subourbon this year and also has raced competitively at the top level of competition since then in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Woodward Stakes. Of all the front-runners in this year’s Cigar Mile, he has the best chance to carry his speed to the finish.

The Play: Bet on #4 Crazy Mason (7-2) to win and play him in an exacta box with #6 Phileas Fogg (9-5).


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