The amount of pace entered in Friday’s $1.5 million Longines Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs could have a significant impact on the outcome.
Several of the 14 fillies entered in the 1 1/8-mile race prefer to race on or near the lead. Prominent examples include #2 Simply Joking (10-1), gate-to-wire winner of the Silverbulletday Stakes and runner-up in the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes; #7 La Cara (6-1), who led from start to finish in the Grade 1 Central Bank Ashland Stakes; and #8 Five G (12-1), who led every step of the way in the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Park Oaks after finishing second in the Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes.
A fast pace seems very likely in the Kentucky Oaks, and this could lend an insurmountable advantage to #11 Good Cheer (6-5), who brings an unblemished 6-for-6 record to the table.
Conditioned by two-time Kentucky Oaks-winning trainer Brad Cox, Good Cheer has won all six of her starts by a minimum of 2 1/2 lengths. She went 3-for-3 at Churchill Downs last fall, most notably defeating #14 Quietside (6-1) in the Grade 2 Golden Rod Stakes. This year, Good Cheer has cleaned up the competition at Fair Grounds, dominating the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Rachel Alexandra Stakes by 6 1/4 lengths and the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Fair Grounds Oaks by 3 1/2 lengths.
Good Cheer isn’t completely lacking in tactical speed, but she usually settles between third and fifth place early in her races. Her tractability should come in handy in the Kentucky Oaks, allowing her to settle behind the fast pace before rallying strongly under jockey Luis Saez. I anticipate Good Cheer will keep her unbeaten record intact while returning to Churchill Downs.
Since Good Cheer is a heavy favorite, we suggest skipping a win bet — which won’t pay much — in favor of playing the trifecta, which requires selecting the top three finishers in order.
We’ll count on Quietside to finish either second or third. She placed in multiple Grade 1 races as a juvenile and has only gotten better this year. Quietside defeated Five G in the Honeybee and Simply Joking in the Fantasy, but breaking from post-position 14 could make it tricky for this pace-pressing filly to avoid a wide trip, hence our preference for Good Cheer as the most likely winner.
We’ll round out our tickets with Simply Joking, Five G, La Cara, and the deep-closing #13 Bless the Broken (30-1).
Wagering Strategy on a $12 Budget
$1.50 trifecta: 11 with 14 with 2,7,8,13 (total cost: $6)
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, 11th race, $1.50 trifecta 11 with 14 with 2,7,8,13
$1.50 trifecta: 11 with 2,7,8,13 with 14 (total cost: $6)
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, 11th race, $1.50 trifecta 11 with 2,7,8,13 with 14
Wagering Strategy on a $24 Budget
$3 trifecta: 11 with 14 with 2,7,8,13 (total cost: $12)
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, 11th race, $3 trifecta 11 with 14 with 2,7,8,13
$3 trifecta: 11 with 2,7,8,13 with 14 (total cost: $12)
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, 11th race, $3 trifecta 11 with 2,7,8,13 with 14
Wagering Strategy on a $48 Budget
$6 trifecta: 11 with 14 with 2,7,8,13 (total cost: $24)
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, 11th race, $6 trifecta 11 with 14 with 2,7,8,13
$6 trifecta: 11 with 2,7,8,13 with 14 (total cost: $24)
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, 11th race, $6 trifecta 11 with 2,7,8,13 with 14
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
