The Grade 3, $275,000 Regret Stakes May 31 features a strong field of 11 3-year-old fillies running 1 1/8 miles on the Churchill Downs turf course.
In terms of having the best experience in similar races, Grade 2 Edgewood Stakes Presented by Accenture runner-up Lush Lips and Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes Presented by Japan Racing Association third-place finisher Fionn both meet the requirements, particularly as those efforts came behind division leader Nitrogen. Totally Justified is another proven versus similar competition when missing by a nose in the Grade 2 Jessamine Stakes Presented by Keeneland Sales last fall. She was returning from a five-month layoff when fifth in the Appalachian most recently. Deloraine finished third behind the aforementioned Nitrogen in the Grade 2 Florida Oaks in March before a third-place effort on dirt in the Grade 3 Gazelle Stakes last month. Classic Q improved off a pair of fourth-place finishes in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride Stakes and in the Sanibel Island Stakes to win impressively on the Churchill Downs turf course last month. Similarly, Fixin to Bee finished fourth in the Sweetest Chant Stakes in February then won an allowance race on the grass last month at Keeneland. Aterradora finished fourth in the Edgewood on this turf course earlier this month, while Mechaya rallied from 13th to finish third in the much shorter Grade 3 Mamzelle Stakes last month and will try to make a stronger late run with added distance. Hereforagoodtime goes for her third straight win and tries stakes competition for the first time. Jalila earned her only win in three starts on an all-weather surface in January and returns from more than 2 ½ months off following a fourth-place finish. She is also racing in a stakes race for the first time. Golden Sunshine ran the best race of her career last month when second behind Fixin to Bee and will run in a stakes race on grass for the first time.
Win contenders:
Classic Q has continued to improve with racing and ran the best race of her career four weeks ago. With Jockey Jose Ortiz in the saddle for the first time while making her Churchill Downs turf debut, Classic Q made an eye-catching move on the far turn to go from 2 ½ lengths behind the leader to the same margin in front with an eighth of a mile to run. With very little encouragement required after that, the filly coasted to a 4 ¾-length win, earning a career-best 107 Equibase Speed Figure, which is by far the best in the field. To put that in perspective, division leader Nitrogen earned a 108 figure when winning the Appalachian Stakes at Keeneland in April (beating Fionn and Totally Justified) before winning the Edgewood Stakes four weeks ago (beating Lush Lips and Aterradora). In her four races this year, Classic Q has progressively gotten faster, starting with an 88 figure in January, then a pair of 101 figures before the 107 Equibase Speed Figure effort last month. With that in mind, Classic Q could be tough to beat in this year’s Regret Stakes.
Fionn also demonstrates the kind of pattern of improvement we like to see in 3-year-olds at this time of year. She earned an 86 speed figure winning her 2025 debut in an allowance race in February, then improved to an 87 winning the Allen Black Cat LaCombe Memorial Stakes in March. Stepping into graded stakes ranks for the first time in April, Fionn was no match for Nitrogen — or for runner-up Vixen — in the Appalachian Stakes, but ran on from last to third and earned a new career-best 102 Equibase Speed Figure. Nitrogen added a win in the Edgewood one month later, with Vixen finishing third in that race. This suggests Fionn will continue to improve and be a strong factor in this race.
Lush Lips changed trainers to Brendan Walsh prior to her start last November, dominating by seven lengths on the all-weather surface at Gulfstream Park. Moving to turf, Lush Lips won again, this time by two lengths. Then she stepped up in class to run in the Florida Oaks and in the Edgewood Stakes, finishing second behind Nitrogen both times. She earned a 101 Equibase Speed Figure in the Oaks then in the Edgewood she was a bit uncomfortable in the early stages, but with red-hot Flavien Prat riding once again after getting familiar with her last month, and particularly with no Nitrogen in this field, Lush Lips may be capable of running well enough to win.
The rest of the field (with best representative Equibase Speed Figure): Aterradora (98), Deloraine (83), Fixin to Bee (98), Golden Sunshine (98), Hereforagoodtime (87), Jalila (79), Mechaya (90) and Totally Justified (95).
Win Contenders in preference order:
Classic Q
Fionn
Lush Lips
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