The 45th running of the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs drew a small, but star-studded field competing for a $2 million purse as well as a ticket to the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic on Oct. 31 at Keeneland. All seven entrants (two have subsequently been scratched) are graded stakes winners with combined lifetime earnings of more than $26.5 million, including four Grade 1 winners who remain in the field. 2025 Horse of the Year Sovereignty returns to compete under the Twin Spires for the first time since his Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve win last May and will face off against four-time Grade 1 winner White Abarrio, this year’s Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline victor Magnitude, and 2025 Pennsylvania Derby winner Baeza. The Stephen Foster is a 1 1/8-mile dirt race for older horses.
Here’s a look at the field from the rail out:
Willy D’s drew the inside post for trainer Mike Maker and is cross-entered in the Texas Turf Classic Stakes on Saturday. The 5-year-old Lookin At Lucky gelding was claimed for $50,000 in March 2025 and has since won three stakes, including the Grade 3 Twinspires.com Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes in March at Turfway Park. White Abarrio, a 7-year-old son of Race Day with more than $8.4 million in earnings, returns to Churchill for the first time since an unplaced finish in the 2022 Kentucky Derby for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. White Abarrio is fresh off a two-length win over Sovereignty in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap and will have Irad Ortiz Jr. back aboard as he goes for his fifth graded stakes win at this distance. Three-time Grade 1 winner Sovereignty will be making his second start after a long layoff following his dominant 10-length win in the DraftKings Travers Stakes last August. Regular rider Junior Alvarado retains the mount for trainer Bill Mott. Baeza will be making his second start for the Mott stable after being previously trained by the late John Shirreffs. The 4-year-old McKinzie colt ran third behind Sovereignty in last year’s Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets before winning the Pennsylvania Derby last September. Last time out, Baeza finished third by three-quarters of a length after a slow start in the Alysheba Stakes presented by U.S. Army at Churchill on the Longines Kentucky Oaks undercard. Flavien Prat will be back aboard Baeza for the first time since last year’s Belmont. Magnitude returns to the track for the first time since his Dubai World Cup win on March 28 for trainer Steve Asmussen. Jose Ortiz, who has been aboard for Magnitude’s current three-race winning streak, will be back in the irons. Both Forged Steel and Navajo Warrior have been scratched from the race.
Analysis and Main Contenders:
There is no doubt about the ability of Sovereignty, especially on a track where he has two graded stakes wins from as many starts, including a win in the Kentucky Derby on a sloppy sealed surface. That factor could be key for this race as heavy rain is forecasted in Louisville all weekend. Sovereignty broke his maiden in his third career start by five lengths in the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill as a 2-year-old and has since gone on a sensational run. The Into Mischief colt returned as a 3-year-old in March 2025 to win the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes, followed with a runner-up finish in the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm at Xalapa, and then rallied from 17th to win the Kentucky Derby. He then went on to win the Belmont Stakes by three lengths, the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun by a length, and the Travers by an incredible 10 lengths. Unfortunately, that was the end of his 3-year-old campaign as he was scratched from the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic due to a fever. Sovereignty returned as a 4-year-old in April after a nearly seven-month layoff in the Oaklawn Handicap. Unusual for his running style, Sovereignty set the pace and was second best to White Abarrio. Coming off that much time away is no easy task, especially when facing older horses for the first time, and Sovereignty should be able to bounce back after that much needed race. Mott has been highly successful with horses in graded stakes races in their second start after a six-month or longer layoff. Over the past year he wins at 33% when making this move and 21% over the past three years. The rematch with White Abarrio will be tough but Sovereignty is undefeated on this track and also unbeaten on a wet track, so he gets the edge in here.
The veteran of the group, White Abarrio has time and time again proved his talent in big races and at the age of 7 remains in top form. White Abarrio has earned Grade 1 wins at ages 3, 4, and 6, and a meaningful advantage is his ability at the 1 1/8-mile distance. He has four graded stakes wins going 1 1/8 miles on dirt, three of which came at the Grade 1 level. White Abarrio has made two starts in 2026, finishing runner-up in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes to stablemate Skippylongstocking at the end of January before a brilliant win in the 1 1/8-mile Oaklawn Handicap over Sovereignty and Journalism last time out. White Abarrio seems to have come out of that victory in good form, posting a half-mile bullet workout in :46.87 June 11 at Gulfstream Park. He ranks first in two key categories in this race. White Abarrio outclasses this star-studded group with an average class rating of 110 and ranks first in late pace with a 123.0 rating, 5 ½ points higher than any other contender. Historically, horses in dirt route stakes races with the highest late pace rating who won their most recent start win at a tremendous 33% from 368 starts while finishing 63% in the money. The pace should set up well for White Abarrio, who prefers to run alone and pounce on the final turn with a late kick near the sixteenth pole, which is exactly what happened last time out in the Oaklawn Handicap. That said, he is winless in two starts on an off track and winless in two starts at Churchill, making this a tall task for this talented horse.
Magnitude has progressed impressively and seemingly is at the top of his game. The Not This Time colt was on the Kentucky Derby trail last year, dominating the Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, but was diagnosed with a left front ankle chip and missed the Triple Crown races. Magnitude returned last July with a 9 ¼-length romp in the Iowa Derby and went on to run a distant third in the Travers to Sovereignty and then second to Baeza in the Pennsylvania Derby. Things came together for Magnitude in November with a half-length victory over older horses in the Grade 2 Clark Stakes Presented by Norton Healthcare at Churchill. He returned as a 4-year-old with a 3 ¾-length win in the Razorback Handicap at Oaklawn in February before shipping to Meydan to win the Dubai World Cup over Japanese star Forever Young. Magnitude is on a remarkably similar path to 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner, who was also owned by Winchell Thoroughbreds and trained by Asmussen. Both Magnitude and Gun Runner finished third in the Travers and second in the Pennsylvania Derby before winning both the Clark and Razorback. Gun Runner also shipped out to Meydan and ran second in the Dubai World Cup before returning to the U.S. to win the Stephen Foster during his championship campaign. The key question is how Magnitude will return from his trip to Dubai coming off such a huge effort. He has been working sharply at Churchill, including a blistering five-furlong bullet workout in :59.20 on June 13, for his first race in three months. Jockey Jose Ortiz and Asmussen have achieved much success together, winning at 31% in graded stakes races at Churchill over the past five years. The pace scenario is also a big question in such a short field, and Magnitude has shown the ability to press or set the pace and win. If he can repeat his performance in the Dubai World Cup, Magnitude certainly possesses enough ability to win against this group.
The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure in a similar race): Willy D’s (113) and Baeza (114).
Win Contenders in Preference Order:
Sovereignty
White Abarrio
Magnitude
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